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MNF Bailout Special: Best NFL Odds to End Week 1 a Winner

While we don’t endorse “chasing” after a bad weekend, we can still use Monday Night Football to try and recoup some losses if you had a bad weekend. Conversely, if you had a winning Week 1, we can pad those profits with the following NFL picks.

The highlight of MNF is the debut of Aaron Rodgers with the New York Jets. It will be the first time Rodgers has donned a uniform other than the Packers Green and Gold since his first NFL start. But Rodgers isn’t going to be my focus on Monday’s betting market. His debut has too much hype that can skew the NFL betting lines and NFL odds.

MNF Bailout Special: Best NFL Odds to End Week 1 a Winner
MNF Bailout Special: Best NFL Odds to End Week 1 a Winner

Josh Allen Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)

I kicked around the idea of using Josh Allen’s passing yards or attempts here, but I found a better trend regarding his touchdown passes against the Jets. FYI, I would lean under on the passing yards and over on attempts.

 

 

 

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In 2022, Allen averaged 267.7 passing yards per game and had multiple touchdowns in all but five starts. Two of those five starts came against the Jets secondary led by Sauce Gardner. The Jets’ defense has a shot to be as good as it was during Rex Ryan’s tenure, and Week 1 against their instate rivals is an excellent place to start.

Damien Harris Over 1.5 Receptions (+175)

The second of my NFL predictions is a bit of a flier, but that’s what early season betting is for. The specifics of the Bills’ backfield are still a bit of a mystery, with James Cook listed as the starter, with Damien Harris, Latavius Murray, and Nyheim Hines playing second, third, and fourth fiddle.

With NFL lines at +175, a favorite prop for the Bills vs Jets game is for Harris to catch at least two passes on Monday night. Between 2021 and 2022, Harris combined 35 receptions in 26 games as a member of the New England Patriots.


After Devin Singletary left, Cook became the lead back, and the Bills needed to find a guy who could hand early downs and catch passes in short-yardage situations. Harris will play that role for Buffalo and hopefully snag a few catches tonight.

While the Jets no doubt have one of the best defenses in the NFL lines, that could lead to more opportunities for Harris. Whether in planned short-yardage situations or as an outlet for Allen when he’s pressured, Harris could shine in this game even if the rest of the offense doesn’t.

Harris also had two great games against the Jets last season, with 102 yards on 19 carries. He averaged 6.4 YPC on 2nd down attempts.

With the Vegas NFL odds so good for this prop, sprinkling a half-unit on Harris is a great way to cap off Week 1 with a nice payout.

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