The highlight of MNF this week is not one but two games to dig into and profit from. The night’s first game features the New Orleans Saints as -170 NFL betting favorites over the Carolina Panthers (+3 (EVEN)) with a total of 39½ points. Next up, the Cleveland Browns (-130) take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) with a predicted score total of 38½.
Before we jump into this week’s Bailout Special for Monday Night Football, remember that this isn’t about “chasing” after having a bad weekend. Instead, we’re here to pad our winnings and minimize weekend losses.
Among the group of teams to participate in Monday Night Football this week, none are great options when we look at NFL Futures Odds to win Super Bowl LVIII. The Browns have the best odds of the quarter at +1800, while the Saints are +3000, the Steelers +6000, and the Panthers may as well be off the board at +12500.
Young’s Offensive Line Is Trouble
For all the hype surrounding Panthers rookie quarterback Bryce Young, he had a terrible debut last week. Young was on the run for most of the game and completed just 20 of 38 passes for 146 yards and two interceptions. The Atlanta Falcons do not have a very good front seven, but still, they swarmed Young as his own line proved ineffective. A team without an offense is a risky NFL bet, to say the least.
Looking at the Saints, they were among the 10 best teams in dropback EPA last season and swiped three balls from Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans last Sunday. The defense led New Orleans in their Week 1 win, with their offense recording just 16 points.
The Saints offense does worry me, with a pathetic 1-4 result in the red zone. Derek Carr is an upgrade under center over 2022, and the Saints’ offense moved the ball well. But they just couldn’t capitalize when it mattered, and even with 305 yards passing, the Saints stalled in scoring position.
NO vs CAR NFL Picks Predictions: Saints -3 (-120) and a lean to the Under at 39½
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Watson Off to the Races
The primetime MNF game between the Steelers and Browns is the most interesting of the two matchups. The Steelers, with Kenny Pickett under center, had high hopes for this season but suffered a brutal loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1. They hope to bounce back against the Browns, who smoked the Seattle Seahawks in their first game of the season as underdogs.
I already covered this game from a few angles, including a player prop on QB Deshaun Watson to go over his rushing yards total. My reasons are very good if you want to read them here. I bring this up because Watson has a good game on the ground and will be running for his life from T.J. Watt.
If you were wondering how TJ Watt would follow up a torn pectoral from last year.. let’s just say DPOY #2 esque performance
• 3 sacks
• 2 forced fumbles
• 1 pass deflection
• numerous pressures pic.twitter.com/IS4ZuGc2IQ
— Steven (@Elspedd) September 14, 2023
If we’re already going to profit from Watson, we might as well add Watt to our Monday night NFL picks. With five solo tackles, three sacks and two forced fumbles in his first game of the season, Watt is clearly over his torn pec and ready to compete for Defensive Player of the Year.
NO vs CAR NFL Prop Betting: T.J. Watt 1+ Sack (-167) & 4+ Tackles (+122)