MNF Parlay Picks: Top Bets on the Under, Passing Yards 11/4

Just because Kansas City will yield plenty of throws doesn’t mean it will give up points. That’s Chiefs football and we’ve stacked the best NFL bets for this Monday Night Football into a parlay to break down how Kansas City will control this game.

3 Legs To Bet On A Monday Night Football Parlay

1. Chiefs and Bucs Keep It Under the Total

It starts with defense for Kansas City. The Chiefs are undefeated (7-0) because they hold opponents to an average of 17.6 points per game.

You’re not going to beat Patrick Mahomes – even if he is having another “down” season statistically – scoring under 18 points. This is why over 64% of Kansas City’s games have gone under the NFL odds’ totals since 2023 (10-18).

With a defense this scary, every game is a graveyard shift 👻 Happy Halloween, Chiefs Kingdom! pic.twitter.com/M496etn4r0

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 31, 2024

The Chiefs control the clock, prevent opponents from running the ball, and put opposing quarterbacks in precarious positions. This leads to Kansas City dictating what opponents do. And with Tampa Bay missing its two best receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Baker Mayfield will struggle to get going even if he tries.

“Definitely not two of the guys that are the huge heartbeat of this team,” Mayfield said about losing star players in the same game following the loss to the Ravens. “But like I said, we have to find a way.”

Tampa Bay still scored 26 points against Atlanta even without Evans and Godwin. It totaled 432 yards and now ranks as the fourth-most prolific NFL team in both points (29.4) and yards (389.5) per game. But the Chiefs will neutralize the Buccaneers, at least in terms of scoring.

The Chiefs have not allowed an opponent to score more than 20 points in all but one game this season (Cincinnati). The mighty Ravens, the NFL’s most explosive team, managed only 20 points, San Francisco was held to 18, and Atlanta, which torched Tampa Bay with 31-plus points in both meetings, scored only 17.

Kansas City’s red-zone defense ranks 10th in the NFL at 47.8%, partly due to stuffing the run. It has only allowed four touchdowns all season. Tampa Bay will not put up points on Kansas City, which makes the under on the total one of our NFL picks for this parlay.

Bet This Parlay Pick: Buccaneers vs Chiefs Under 46 (-110)

2. Mayfield Goes Over His Throws

But Mayfield will do what he can to keep Tampa Bay in this game, even if it means throwing the ball over 50 times. The veteran quarterback has put up Tom Brady-like stats this season.

He leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (21) and interceptions (nine) and averages 35.5 passing attempts per game. Mayfield to go over 34½ attempts against Kansas City is one of the easier NFL predictions you can make.

Baker Mayfield found his new go-to target and it’s CADE OTTON ‼️ pic.twitter.com/XSCGS9mo28

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 27, 2024

Part of the reason Mayfield is throwing a lot is due to Tampa Bay’s lack of defense. This was supposed to be a defensive team, but it’s fallen to 28th in the NFL, giving up 26.6 points per game. Tampa Bay has issues stopping the run, which can put it behind the 8-ball.

The Chiefs run the ball the sixth-most times in the NFL and can slowly squeeze Tampa Bay. This will result in Kansas City owning possession time and ultimately scoring.

Tampa Bay being unable to run the ball back means it will be up to Mayfield to make up for the gap. Bank on him to throw over 35½ times for the fifth time in his last six outings.

PARLAY PICK: Baker Mayfield Pass Attempts Over 35½ (-107)

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3. White Receives More than His Props

With Mayfield always throwing the ball, several players will be beneficiaries. One of them is running back Rachaad White. He scored a touchdown off of a short Mayfield throw last week.

We’re banking on him to catch plenty of passes, especially if the Chiefs seal off Tampa Bay’s wide receivers. There will be plenty of throws to the backfield, and White should go over 3½ receptions.

Baker’s second TD pass of the day goes to Rachaad White!

📺: #ATLvsTB on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/ccAbGOIsXZ

— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024

White’s over/under being at underdog odds adds to this being one of the best MNF parlay picks you can bet online. The Chiefs give up the fifth-fewest rushing attempts (23.2 per game) and the second-fewest rushing yards (82.3). But they yield nearly 33 passing attempts per game.

With Tampa Bay struggling to run, White will get his yards by air. Bank on the over when you’re doing your online sports betting.

PARLAY PICK: Rachaad White Over 3½ Receptions

Bet on Bucs vs Chiefs Under 46, Baker Mayfield Over 35½ ATT and Rachaad White Over 3½ Rec

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Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.