NFL AFC South Week 4 Picks: Second-Year QBs Bad Bets

The clean game theory also applies to the Tennessee Titans and turnover-prone quarterback Will Levis when they hit the road to take on a Miami Dolphins team that is desperate to keep their postseason hopes alive heading into Week 4.

Let’s find out right now if both AFC South teams can pick up much-needed wins this week.

2 Top Bets in AFC South Week 4

1. Back Off Colts (+1) vs Steelers

Indianapolis (1-2) managed to get past Chicago 21-16 as a slight Week 3 favorite in the NFL lines but I’m still not convinced that young quarterback Anthony Richardson has what it takes to be an NFL starter at this stage of his career. Simply put, Richardson is a turnover machine and doesn’t process NFL defenses very well right now.

The Colts overcame two picks by Richardson against Chicago in Week 3 because Bears struggling rookie quarterback Caleb Williams tossed two interceptions of his own, and Colts superstar running back Jonathan Taylor ran for 110 yards and two scores.

Here comes Jonathan Taylor. 🚂

📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/yULiO4juD6

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) September 22, 2024

Touchdown Profits! Bet $200, Get $450 Bonus on first time deposit.

Pittsburgh improved to 3-0 by getting past the LA Chargers 20-10 on Sunday. I was surprised that Mike Tomlin let processing-challenged quarterback Justin Fields throw the ball 32 times, but the former Bears first-round pick didn’t disappoint against a good Chargers defense by completing 25 passes for 245 yards with one touchdown and one pick.

However, in reality, it was Pittsburgh’s league-leading defense that got the job done for the third straight game. TJ Watt and company limited a banged-up Justin Herbert to 125 passing yards and shut down rejuvenated running back J.K. Dobbins to the tune of 44 yards on 15 carries. Watt is currently tied for eighth in sacks (3) and tied for second in tackles for loss (5).

We see you, @_TJWatt ‼️#EasyToCelebrate | @Budlight pic.twitter.com/cPHpxm24zJ

— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) September 22, 2024

For this Week 4 matchup, I think Pittsburgh’s voracious defense is going to harass Richardson into at least one costly turnover and, more likely, two. The Steelers are first in total defense, first in fewest points allowed (8.7 PPG), and have not allowed more than 10 points in any game.

Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games and 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings against Indianapolis. The Colts are 2-4 SU and ATS in its last six games and have lost five of their last six home games against the Steelers.

Pittsburgh is the easy choice in NFL picks to win and cash in against the Week 4 odds as a one-point road favorite to move to 4-0 SU and ATS!

Bet On Colts vs Steelers Here!

2. Under (37) Best Bet for Titans vs Dolphins

Tennessee (0-3) is a complete mess three weeks into the 2024 regular season. From what I’ve seen, second-year quarterback Will Levis doesn’t need to be starting for any team in the league at this point of his young career.

I cannot stop watching Will Levis fall to his knees and just sit there after throwing the game-losing pick 😭😭😭 pic.twitter.com/ITO3VFFrvH

— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) September 8, 2024

Levis has thrown at least one interception in every game and the Titans have not scored more than 17 points in any game. Point blank, things just don’t look like they’re going to get any better with Levis under center moving forward.

In Miami, the Dolphins (1-2) are coming off consecutive losses, but at least the Fins can say that they are without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa – again. To make matters worse, backup Skylar Thompson went down with a rib injury in Sunday’s road loss at Seattle and might not be available for this matchup.

If Thompson can’t go, the Dolphins will hand over the reins of their offense to veteran backup Tyler Huntley of Tim Boyle. Check NFL news for injury updates this week

Miami’s explosive offense from a year ago is now last in the league in scoring (11.0 PPG). Yet, I’m thinking this is a game that the Dolphins can and must win if they want to keep any hopes of a playoff berth alive in NFL futures odds.

Tennessee is only averaging 16.0 points per game, so it’s not like the Fins are facing an offensive juggernaut, and Miami, for all its struggles, still has the better statistical defense in this Week 4 matchup.

The Titans are 1-6 SU in their last seven games, a pitiful 1-12 SU in their last 13 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Miami is 1-5 SU in their last six and 0-6 ATS during the stretch.

Still, if the Dolphins can get at least one big play from Tyreek Hill and one turnover from Will Levis, they could win this Week 4 matchup and I believe that’s exactly what will happen.

The Under though, might be the best wager against the NFL spread for this affair. The Under is 11-4 in Tennessee’s last 15 road dates against Miami. The Under is 6-1 in Miami’s last seven home games and 5-0 in their last five games overall. I suspect we’re going to see a low-scoring affair that could be the ugliest game on the entire Week 4 docket!

Bet On Titans vs Dolphins Here!

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

Take A Look At These Other 2 NFL Special Articles

• Top AFC East Bets in Week 4: Desperate Dolphins Face QB Woes
• Week 4 NFL Picks: Bet on Steelers to Remain Unbeaten in AFC North

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