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NFL Christmas Player Props: Best Anytime TD Scorer Bets for Week 16

We have a tripleheader of NFL action on Christmas Day; if that doesn’t get you into the holiday spirit, I don’t know what will.

There have been 27 NFL games played on Christmas Day, including two each in 2004, ‘06,

NFL Christmas Player Props: Best Anytime TD Scorer Bets for Week 16
NFL Christmas Player Props: Best Anytime TD Scorer Bets for Week 16

‘16, ‘17, and ‘21. This year will mark the fourth consecutive year with games played on the holiday.

If you didn’t get what you wanted under the tree this year, the touchdown train has you covered.

The three NFL games on Christmas Day in Week 16 are:

  • Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders, 1 p.m. ET
  • Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants, 4:30 p.m. ET
  • San Francisco 49ers vs Baltimore Ravens, 8:15 p.m. ET

 


The opener should be exciting when the Raiders take on the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs come into Week 16 with a 9-5 record, and the door remains slightly cracked for them to finish as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Kansas City has an excellent opportunity to close out the season with three straight wins as it faces the Raiders, Bengals, and Chargers. The AFC Championship Game has gone through Kansas City for a record five consecutive seasons.

It’s been a tumultuous season for the Chiefs compared to what we typically see from them since Patrick Mahomes was drafted. The offense has struggled, and plenty of light has been shed on the poor performances from the receiving group.

Rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice has broken out over the last month, reeling in 32 receptions for 334 yards and three touchdowns, becoming the weapon the offense desperately needs.

The Chiefs have walked away victorious in their last six meetings with the Raiders, and Las Vegas has one win in Kansas City over the last 10 seasons. The Chiefs defense ranks third overall in points allowed at 17.5, so don’t be misled by the fact the Raiders set a franchise record last week with their 63-point performance against the Chargers.

The latest NFL betting lines have the Chiefs as 10-point favorites, and the total is set at 41 points. Mahomes has faced the Raiders 11 times in his career and has led the Chiefs to no fewer than 28 points in each meeting. The Chiefs have scored an average of 35.5 points per game against the Raiders with Mahomes under center.

The game sandwiched between features an NFC East battle as the New York Giants travel to Philadelphia to take on the defending NFC Champion Eagles. The Eagles are 13½-point favorites at home, with the point total at 43.

The Eagles have crushed the Giants lately, with three of their last four games against Big Blue ending with a margin of at least 24 points. Philadelphia is desperate to get back on track after three consecutive losses, and the Giants are the perfect gift under the tree for the Birds.

The Eagles had won five straight before this three-game losing streak. They were crushed by San Francisco 42-19, then beaten by Dallas 33-13, and Seattle upset them 20-17 in the final seconds in a crushing loss. In the NFC playoff picture, Philadelphia sits at 10-4 alongside the Cowboys and Lions.

The Eagles’ defense can’t get out of its way, allowing the seventh-most points per game at 24.4. Philadelphia is primed for a bounce back on that side of the ball as the Giants rank 31st in total offense.

The Giants will send Tommy DeVito out for his sixth NFL start, and despite managing a three-game win streak before Week 15, he doesn’t instill much confidence in this Giants fan.

We’ll cap off Week 16 on Christmas night with one of the season’s best matchups on the schedule. The Ravens take on the 49ers. Baltimore sits atop the AFC, and San Francisco the NFC. Each team boasts incredible defensive units and high-powered offenses led by the top MVP candidates in 2023.

Both franchises enter the clash with 11-3 records, and this could be a Super Bowl preview. Both teams are listed as the favorites to win their conference and reach the Super Bowl. This will be the second time in NFL history that teams that hold the No. 1 seed in each conference meet this late in the season.

The latest NFL odds have the home 49ers as 5½-point favorites, and the total is set at a modest 47 points. Ten of the 11 wins by San Fran have come by double-digits, and the Ravens have been incredible as an underdog.

As an underdog, Baltimore has gone 19-3-1 against the spread in its last 23 games. These defenses rank first and second in the NFL in points allowed, but both offenses feature the potential MVP and a plethora of playmakers. This game should not disappoint!

As the conductor of the touchdown train, I’ve once again narrowed own the best options for anytime touchdown scorers for Monday’s Christmas Day games. Let’s get to the best NFL bets today.

Take A Look At These Other 2 NFL Special Articles

⦁ NFL Christmas Day Parlay and Props: Ride Chiefs Duo
⦁ Have a Merry Christmas and Bet Ravens-49ers Over the Total

Best NFL Christmas Anytime TD Bets

Rashee Rice

Mahomes is set to torch this Raiders defense that ranks 25th in pressure rate and has allowed at least two passing touchdowns over their last four games. The only thing that may slow the Chiefs is the weather, as the Raiders have allowed the sixth-highest passer rating over the last month.

The Chiefs own the fifth-highest implied team total of the week, and the history tells us we can trust them here. I’m going to ride the hot hand of Rashee Rice. We are seeing the connection bloom between the reigning MVP Mahomes and Rice.

The rookie has a massive 30% target share over the last month. He has led the league in designed target rate over the last month and is only behind Tyreek Hill in yards after the catch this season. The Raiders have allowed six scores to opposing wideouts over their last four games. I simply can’t find a reason not to back Rice at this price.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

The Chiefs’ receiving core has been abysmal outside of Travis Kelce and Rice. I think a major adjustment is underway as Skyy Moore was placed on IR, and Kadarius Toney has missed practice all week with an injury.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has seen his snaps plummet after his midseason struggles. JustinWatson has had plenty of opportunities to step up but has failed. I expect veteran wide receiver Richie James to step into a larger role this week and the Chiefs to utilize a three-headed backfield. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon have earned more playing time with Isiah Pacheco is returning from injury.


Getting this price on CEH is simply too good to pass up. I’ve always been a believer in his talent, and clearly, the Chiefs were too, as they used a first-round pick on him. The Raiders have struggled all season long to stop the run, allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game.

Pacheco is set to return, but I believe CEH has proven why he should retain a larger role in the offense moving forward. I also think Andy Reid won’t push Pacheco until the playoffs while he recovers from the shoulder injury.

Eagles Defense/Special Teams

Are chicken cutlets typically served on Christmas? I guess depending on the household. Tommy DeVito, AKA Tommy Cutlets, will serve sacks this Christmas.

The Eagles pass rush should have a field day against the Giants’ offensive line. The Eagles’ secondary has been terrible but their front seven ranks as one of the best in the NFL.

Philadelphia has the fourth-most quarterback pressures, and DeVito was sacked seven times last week against a non-existent Saints pass rush. DeVito has been sacked 35 times in seven games. This offensive line is in big trouble outside of All-Pro left tackle Andrew Thomas. The Giants may gift the Eagles a defensive sack, scoop, and score.

A.J. Brown

The Eagles have the highest implied team total of Week 16, and it’s difficult to imagine A.J. Brown not contributing.

The Giants defense has allowed the seventh-most passing yards over the last month. Under Wink Martindale, the Giants play a ton of single-high safety defense.

Brown has a massive 36% target share and leads the NFL in yards per route run when facing single-high. DeVonta Smith is nursing a knee injury, so Brown may have less competition for targets. Fire up AJBWR1.

D’Andre Swift

The price we’re getting for Swift to score is still solid despite the insane 28-point implied team total for Philly.

The Eagles have the best matchup in terms of combined rush yards before contact this week against the G-Men. Swift had 20 touches last week, and four red-zone carries. He should have scored last week, but he was tackled by his own teammate, Jason Kelce, at the 1-yard line.

There is always the risk of Jalen Hurts and the “tush push” taking a potential rushing touchdown away, but this is a great spot for Swift to find the end zone again.

Big Blue is more like Little Blue when it comes to defending the run. New York has allowed the third-highest explosive run rate and the 10th-highest rushing touchdown rate over the last month. Swift will dominate the zone-run schemes and score.

Quez Watkins

Watkins missed plenty of time this season due to injury, but he has seen his snap percentage hover around 50% over the last three weeks since activated from IR.

Smith missed practice on Thursday, and even if he suits up on Monday, he could be on a snap count. Watkins is the clear third wide receiver ahead of Julio Jones. At these current odds, it’s worth a shot that Watkins connects for his first touchdown. If it ends up a blowout, Watkins will remain on the field and have an opportunity for a garbage-time score.

Brandon Aiyuk

I expect the primetime showdown to be a defensive battle. Both teams excel against each other’s strengths, but these offenses are too good to be bogged down all night.

Unfortunately, Baltimore is dealing with many injuries coming into this clash, so I’m not convinced we see the Ravene at their best. BrockPurdy leads the NFL in yards per attempt, passer rating, and touchdowns.

Baltimore’s pass defense has been spectacular, but we have seen it showing signs of weakness. We saw the Jaguars connect on a long touchdown last week, and the week prior, Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Robinson scored against this secondary. Aiyuk is the downfield threat in the passing attack, and I believe the Niners don’t hold back on attacking the vaunted Ravens defense deep.

Lamar Jackson

This game won’t be completely one-sided. Jackson will be asked to create explosive runs after Keaton Mitchell suffered a season-ending ACL injury last week.

He has double-digit carries in three consecutive games and leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards. He ranks second in red zone carries per game.

The 49ers defense struggled to stop the run last week in Arizona, allowing 234 rushing yards. The 49ers could deploy a spy on Jackson to keep his rushing upside down, but I expect him to display his magic with his legs in the red zone.

Explore the excitement of the upcoming NFL matchups with the latest NFL lines and Vegas NFL odds!

 

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