NFL Conference Championships: Picking Player Props
The NFL betting window is closing, and we have three games left to bet on this season. The winners of the Conference Championship games punch their tickets to the Super Bowl, while the losers punch out permanently. A trip to Tampa Bay is on the line Sunday, and online sports betting is approaching its fever pitch. Get in on it!
In these clutch situations, there will be players who rise to the occasion, basking in the national spotlight. Other players might buckle under the pressure, or underperform due to the deep details and tendencies buried within the matchup. Picking winning NFL player prop bets involves the analysis of trends, and processing all available data.
In determining hot player props, we must be willing to investigate beyond the scope of standard NFL odds. After we’ve identified several intriguing prop bets, we test those findings against our intuition. The almighty gut instinct. Here are a few interesting angles to be considered for player prop selection for this Sunday’s Conference Championships.
Brady vs the Packers’ Secondary
The Packers have a strong secondary, and star CB Jaire Alexander leads the attack. Green Bay owns one of the tightest passing Ds in the league. Only Atlanta’s Matt Ryan has thrown for more than 260 yards at Lambeau Field this season, finishing with 285 yards.
A great prop pick to consider here is for Tom Brady to throw for less than 287½ yards, at -110. No opposing quarterback has thrown for more than 285 yards in Green Bay. Brady managed to tally 166 yards in the Bucs’ 38-10 Week 6 victory over the Packers.
Green Bay’s defense will be going after Brady big time, throwing their best “fastball” at him. While the Packers focus on stopping Brady, the door opens wide for Tampa Bay to have success on the ground. Another couple of promising prop bets center around the predicted success of Bucs’ RBs Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette.
Jones II and Fournette to Run Wild for Bucs
The Packers’ run D is quite capable, but Green Bay can’t do everything at once. While zoning in on Brady, the Pack’s run defense will be worn down by Jones II and Fournette. This formidable one-two punch is expected to exceed their respective rushing totals, Jones II over 39 ½ and Fournette over 44 ½.
Jones II has posted 60+ yards rushing in five-out-of-six, including a 62-yard effort vs New Orleans last week. Fournette has earned a pseudo-split in the backfield, totaling 156 rushing yards over his two playoff appearances with the Bucs. We’ll likely see a balanced and successful ground attack from the Buccaneers, as they try to replicate the 49ers blueprint for success from last year’s NFC Championship game.
Bills’ Allen & Singletary to Bum Rush Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs’ passing D is solid, but their run defense is relatively soft and gushy. Buffalo Bills’ QB Josh Allen will probably turn to the run more often, since he knows he’ll have some success. Allen ran for 42 yards against the Chiefs in a Week 8 loss, and he’ll look to expose KC again here.
Take a look at props that pay for Allen grinding out more than 35 ½ rushing yards (-115). Bills’ RB Devin Singletary is a good bet to break the 42 ½ yard threshold (-115) as well in this position. Singletary hasn’t been especially impressive this season, but rookie Zack Moss is out and Kansas City can be beaten on the ground.
Just ask the Raiders, who handed the Chiefs their only loss of the season after pounding the rock 35 times. Singletary averages 4.4 YPC, and only needs 10 carries at that clip to make the over a winner. It’s difficult to imagine the Bills abandoning the run at any point in this high-profile battle, so play those odds.
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