NFL Division Round ATS Picks

The Cincinnati Bengals take on the Tennessee Titans in a game that is wide open according to many in the punditocracy, despite the skewed outlook in betting online markets. Joe Burrow and the Cincy offense can light up on a good day, and the options that the second-year quarterback has in the passing game are legitimate threats. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Bengals kept this game close as a result if not win it outright.

The last time the @Bengals and Titans met, rookie QB Joe Burrow put up 2 TDs for a W in Cincy.

On Saturday, the two face off for just the second time ever in the postseason.

Bengals vs. Titans | 4:30 p.m. ET | CBS and @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/6H3lMsX2Zi

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) January 19, 2022

Beating the Titans will be no mean feat, especially on their turf and with the expected return of Derrick Henry – the best running back in the game. Henry’s level of fitness is a big question mark, but Henry at 80% is still a lethal weapon, according to the punditocracy.

• Cincinnati is 11-7-0 ATS with a 5.1 winning margin on average and a +4.2 differential versus the spread (includes the Wild Card round).
• Cincinnati is 6-2-0 ATS with a 9.3 winning margin on average and a +9.7 differential versus the spread.
• Tennessee is 10-7-0 ATS with a 3.8 winning margin on average and a +2.9 differential versus the spread.
• Tennessee is 6-3-0 aTS with a 6.4 winning margin on average and a +4.4 differential versus the spread.

Whichever way one slices this game for moneyline picks, there are certain aspects about this matchup that suggest it will be a close contest. In particular, the way the Titans play. They’ll try to stifle the Bengals offensively, control the clock and win the battle of the trenches. In other words, this matchup doesn’t exactly scream a blowout and taking the points with the Bengals is the choice bet.

Pick: Bengals +3½ (-105)

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

The San Francisco 49ers punched their ticket into the Division Round with an upset of the Dallas Cowboys. Although the NFL odds were stacked against the Niners, few were really surprised by the outcome. All season, the debate about the Cowboys – were they for real – raged. Now, thanks to the Niners, the answer is clear. They weren’t.

By that same token, however, it raises the question about San Francisco’s credentials for a second-straight upset. The gap in quality between the Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers is huge. They’ll need to be a lot sharper against the Packers, never mind keeping the turnovers in check (looking at you Garoppolo!)

Whenever Aaron Rodgers faces the Niners, invariably the video of his post-draft interview crops up. In keeping with this trend, here goes….

“How disappointed are you that you will not be a 49er?”

“Not as disappointed as the 49ers will be that they didn’t draft me.”

— Aaron Rodgers #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/UGSag6wQ92

— IKE Packers Podcast (@IKE_Packers) January 17, 2022

It remains to be seen how well the Niners will hold up against the top seeds at Lambeau Field on Saturday night. Recent history is in their favor, with Jimmy G. & Co. defeating the Packers in the NFC Championship Game in 2019. It marked Rodgers’ third post-season loss to the Niners in his career.

• San Francisco is 10-8-0 ATS with a 3.8 winning margin on average and a +0.7 differential versus the spread (includes the Wild Card round).
• San Francisco is 6-4-0 ATS on the road with a 4.0 winning margin on average and a +2.2 differential versus the spread (includes the Wild Card round).
• Green Bay is 12-5-0 ATS with a 4.6 winning margin on average and a +0.6 differential versus the spread.
• Green Bay is 7-1- ATS at home with a 13.9 winning margin on average and a +6.4 differential versus the spread.

Earlier this season, Rodgers had 25 seconds to come up with a spectacular game-winning drive to lift Green Bay to the 30-28 victory over San Francisco at Levi’s Stadium. If this game is anywhere nearly as close as it was the last time these sides met, it could be as close as the odds at BetUS sportsbook have it.

Pick: Niners +6 (-120)

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers got their title defense campaign off to a stellar start, beating the Philadelphia Eagles 31-15. They had the game practically won even before the fourth quarter started as they rendered the Eagles a moot point with a 31-0 lead.

A lot is being made about the Los Angeles Rams and their Wild Card win over the Arizona Cardinals. But as good as the Rams were, the Cardinals were bad in equal measure. Some might argue, the Cardinals played a big factor in their own defeat. They came out ill-prepared and seemingly out of sorts.

• Los Angeles is 9-9-0 ATS with a 6.2 winning margin on average and a +0.3 differential versus the spread (includes the Wild Card round).
• Los Angeles is 4-5-0 ATS on the road with a 4.6 winning margin on average and a -0.2 differential versus the spread.

• Tampa Bay is 10-8-0 ATS with a 9,7 winning margin on average and a +0.9 differential versus the spread (includes the Wild Card round).
• Tampa Bay is 7-2-0 ATS at home with 16.1 winning margin on average and a +6.2 differential versus the spread (includes the Wild Card round).

The Buccaneers lost to the Rams in Week 3, and it didn’t sit well with Tom Brady at all. Brady was without Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown for that game, and their absence factored. He is going to be without Brown again, along with Chris Godwin (out for season), and possibly Leonard Fournette, who is a question mark for this game.

"They beat us the first time. I want to beat them bad the second time." #GoBucs pic.twitter.com/rilNIFkfSi

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) January 21, 2022

There’s a feeling that the growing injury list on the offensive side of the ball might catch up with the Buccaneers eventually. As a result, the Rams appear to be the popular NFL pick against the spread here. Add to that the fact that they bolstered their glittering roster with the addition of Odell Beckham Jr, and Von Miller midseason, the Rams are literally the eye candy of the Division Round for NFL bettors.

At the crux of it all, though, is the basic matchup of Matthew Stafford vs Tom Brady. It will take a real brave bettor to bet on Stafford against Brady here.

Pick: Buccaneers -2½ (-110)

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

NFL bettors were treated to the Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs matchup last season, but in the AFC Championship game with a spot in Super Bowl 55 on the line. The Chiefs won that contest convincingly. So, it’s a bit of a shame that it features in the Division Round this time around, because the Bills would have loved to get the measure of the Chiefs in a game of such consequence. Alas, that’s the way things go, sometimes.

Regardless, this was always the game NFL fans were hankering after in the playoffs for its potential to blow everyone’s socks off. It’s THE burgeoning rivalry in the AFC right now between two of the game’s most recognisable gunslingers. .

• Buffalo is 10-6-2 ATS with a 12.4 winning margin on average and a +4.5 differential versus the spread (includes the Wild Card round).
• Buffalo is 5-3-0 ATS on the road with a 13.3 winning margin on average and a +8.6 differential versus the spread.
• Kansas City is 9-9-0 ATS with a 7.6 winning margin on average and a +1.1 differential versus the spread (includes the Wild Card round).
• Kansas City is 5-5-0 ATS at home with a 9.8 winning margin on average and a +2.3 differential versus the spread (includes the Wild Card round).

Both the Bills and Chiefs are coming off commanding wins in the Wild Card round, with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes throwing down the gauntlet respectively. Each trucked five touchdowns into the endzone on route to blowout wins. Buffalo crushed New England 47-17 while Kansas City eviscerated Pittsburgh 42-21.

It’s not about mounting up.

It’s about looking back. Bills-Chiefs pic.twitter.com/iGA97pN80r

— Kyle Brandt (@KyleBrandt) January 21, 2022

Curiously, the public is buying what the Bills are selling – more so than what the Chiefs are selling right now. This has prompted markets to adjust the line, dropping it to a new low of -1. It’s possible that this line will dwindle to a pick’em before game time, if not completely flip. On the flip side, it’s possible buyback will drive the line back up to Chiefs -2.5.

As it is, the Chiefs as the 1-point home chalk with all their experience in the postseason are simply too good to ignore.

Pick: Chiefs -1 (-115)