With only four NFL Divisional Round games on the docket, the pickings are slim. Nevertheless, two games strike an attractive pose on the NFL odds board for our two-team, six-point teaser: the NFC Divisional matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers and the AFC Divisional showdown between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Find out where the tease value is contained within these two scintillating matchups as we run down through the betting odds below.
Two-Team, 6-Point Teaser
Green Bay Packers -6 teased down to a pick’em (vs. San Francisco 49ers)
The Green Bay Packers are getting healthy at the right time, and they come into this pivotal NFC Division showdown brimming with confidence after a standout regular season that was capped off by a third straight NFC North title and a second straight No. 1 seed in the playoffs.
By all accounts, the Packers are the popular bet to win this game and advance into the NFC Championship Game. Markets opened the Packers as the five-point home chalk, but the line jumped to 5½ within hours of publishing. In the last 24 hours, the line has further moved in favor of the Packers, up to six points.
For those bettors coming late into the game, backing the Packers at -6 must seem a bit steep for NFL picks against the spread. Yes, they’re the so-called best team in the NFC according to the stats and records, but Aaron Rodgers is winless in three postseason meetings against the Niners. That’s something that bears thinking about.
On the other hand, the Niners are the quintessential dark horse of the playoffs with an upset over the Dallas Cowboys to back up their credentials. There are question marks surrounding quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s fitness, as well defensive end Nick Bosa’s status for the game. Bosa is uncertain after suffering a concussion last weekend in San Francisco’s 23-17 win in Dallas.
But the Niners are a well-coached side. They’re innovative and physical on both sides of the ball. They’re riding a two-game winning streak on the road that includes signature wins over the Los Angeles Rams and the Dallas Cowboys. They’ll fancy their chances in this game even though the markets don’t.
Thus, there is every chance that this game will be closer than the betting online odds would have it. And for those bettors that are looking to bet the Packers to reach a second consecutive conference championship game, teasing the line from -6 down to a pick’em is a bet worth considering.
The last meeting between this pair resulted in a 30-28 win for Green Bay in Week 3 at San Francisco. The game saw leads trade hands as Garoppolo rallied the Niners to the 28-27 lead before Rodgers marched the Packers down the field with 25 seconds on the clock and set up a game-winning field goal.
Buffalo Bills +2 teased up to +8 (at Kansas City Chiefs)
The Buffalo Bills go into their AFC Division tilt against the Kansas City Chiefs as the small underdogs at BetUS sportsbook. However, the public is all over the Bills in the betting – a fact that is evinced by the significant moves on the odds board.
Markets opened the Bills vs Chiefs on a 2½-point line, but it quickly trimmed down to two points as betting came down the wire. Midway through the week, the line dipped to a low of Chiefs -1, before springing back up to Chiefs -2. The way the line has hopped around, it remains to be seen where it finally settles as there’s bound to be a flurry of late betting that will push the market in either direction.
For the time being, those that are looking to back the Bills, the current 2-point line on offer is perfect for a little tease. Getting the Bills at +8 is certainly more attractive than the Bills at +2, and affords additional wiggle room. This six-point tease applies if the line were to move up to Bills +2½, too.
VICTORY MOOOOOD 😎 pic.twitter.com/JwUKZ4rsRj
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 17, 2022
The Bills did beat the Chiefs earlier this season at Arrowhead, stunning the hosts in a 38-20 victory to come through as the closing 2½-point underdogs. However, Josh Allen and Buffalo have never beaten Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the postseason. That’s a whole different ball game.
The Bills and Chiefs lit up defenses that crumbled in the Wild Card round. While Allen and Mahomes are sure to be on top form again, it’ll be much harder for either to replicate last week’s five-touchdown performance against a more formidable defense.
So, a high-octane offensive showdown might be on the cards, but taking the adjusted point spread here will better account for the potential of one of these defenses cranking up the heat — by making a crucial defensive stop, goal-line stop, pick-six or anything that could spoil it for spread bettors late in the game and create separation that is greater than two points.