NFL Division Round Under of the Week

With nearly half of the 2022 NFL postseason field whittled away in the Wild Card round — and mostly the favorites advancing with ease — it’s pretty clear that the eight teams left in the playoffs are the best of the bunch. That means all four games this weekend should be pretty competitive.

After last weekend’s games, which featured multiple one-sided offensive explosions, we should see some more defensive showdowns in the Division round. So, it might be a smart time to consider some under bets as teams finally face off with foes that are well-equipped to get stops. Let’s look at the NFL betting odds and go through the best candidates:

Second Runner-Up: San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

When: Saturday, January 22 (8:15 p.m. ET)
Total: 47 Points

The Packers were able to rest and relax with a bye last week while the 49ers survived a potential late-game collapse in their 23-17 win over the Dallas Cowboys. Now, San Francisco heads to Green Bay to try and stop Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, who have been as close to unstoppable this season as is possible for a quarterback and wide receiver duo.

But, if there’s a team that can hold the Packers in check, it might be the 49ers. San Francisco is ninth in scoring defense but third in fewest yards allowed and the 49ers have allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards in football. They did a great job on Dak Prescott on Sunday, picking him off once, sacking him five times, and holding him to a 69.3 passer rating.

On the other side, the Packers’ defensive statistics aren’t as impressive but Green Bay does a solid job against the run, which is what San Francisco will have to rely on heavily considering how up-and-down Jimmy Garoppolo has been. Kyle Shanahan will surely have some tricks against his old friend (and former co-worker) Matt LaFleur but it’s hard to run up the score against a solid defense like Green Bay’s with gadget plays for 60 minutes.

If you’re making NFL predictions, look for this to be a close game with lots of field goals and not a ton of points overall. It’s a good game for an under, especially with the expected frigid temperatures at Lambeau Field.

Pick: Under 47 Points

First Runner-Up: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

When: Sunday, January 23 (6:30 p.m. ET)
Total: 54½ Points

Both the Bills and Chiefs cruised to easy wins in the Wild Card round, dropping 40+ points against completely overmatched defenses in the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers, respectively. Those big showings are likely why the over/under point total for their matchup is so high on the BetUS sportsbook.

However, things will be much more difficult for both offenses on Sunday. The Chiefs have a top-10 scoring defense that got better as the season went on and Kansas City has won 10 of its last 11 games following a 3-4 start. The Bills have the No. 1 defense in the league on both a points allowed and yards allowed basis. They have given up the fewest first downs and are in the top three in every single passing defense category — first in net yards allowed per attempt, passing yards allowed, and passing touchdowns allowed.

So, even with each side having an elite quarterback, plenty of weapons, and solid offensive lines, this game might not be the offensive shootout that a 54½ point total might suggest. The chilly Kansas City weather and notoriously windy Arrowhead Stadium should help the under too.

Pick: Under 54½ Points

Under of the Week: Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When: Sunday, January 23 (3 p.m. ET)
Total: 48½ Points

Like Buffalo and Kansas City, the Rams and Buccaneers weren’t challenged much in their Wild Card wins so their Division Round matchups are going to be a bit harder particularly on offense. The Rams dominated the Arizona Cardinals from the get-go on Monday night in every aspect of the game while the Buccaneers crushed a Philadelphia Eagles team that exposed some of the issues with an expanded postseason.

If you’re betting online, expect Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady to both see their production dip as they go up against legitimately good defensive units. The Rams will have a tougher time running the ball through an elite Tampa Bay front seven that helped the Buccaneers have a top-five rushing defense this season, which will put more pressure on Stafford to force throws — which has been his main problem in the past.

Meanwhile, Brady could be running for his life with Aaron Donald and Von Miller blitzing him. The key to beating Brady, especially in the playoffs, is to make him move around the pocket and rush his decisions. The Rams are well-equipped to do that and, as a result, contain Tampa Bay’s electric offense. This game is definitely a great under candidate.