The Kansas City Chiefs appear to be the lock bet of the week as they prepare to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in the NFL Divisional Round. The Jaguars are the upstarts of the postseason, exceeding all expectations after executing a stunning turnaround against the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round.
These two teams have met before in the regular season – a game that the Chiefs won 27-17 on the road. Based on their recent head-to-head and the impeccable reputation of the high-flying Chiefs, the NFL betting market for this game is cornered with the hosts.
The Chiefs are priced as the runaway favorites at -470 on the Moneyline while the Jaguars are tipped at +355 in the same market. The point spread is pegged to 10 points as we look at the updated NFL odds board while the total is projected to 52½ points with the over and under juiced to -110, respectively.
Let’s check the latest NFL news, stats, injury reports, and NFL lines for NFL Divisional Round. We’ve plenty of Vegas NFL picks for NFL Divisional Round Playoffs Games.
Jaguars vs Chiefs NFL Odds
- Spread: Chiefs-10 (+105)
- Moneyline: Jaguars +355 | Chiefs -470
- Total: O53½ (-110) | U52½ (-110)
From Lookaheads to Divisional Round NFL Odds
The markets went to press with the Chiefs installed as the 9½-point home chalk, but that line crept up to 10 points by midweek. Similarly, the total opened around 51½ points before ticking up to 52½ points by midweek.
Jaguars vs Chiefs Preview
The Chiefs kick off their postseason campaign against surprise AFC Divisional Round contenders in the Jaguars, who erased a 27-0 deficit to eke out the 31-30 win over the Chargers.
Trevor Lawrence’s first taste of postseason football was a topsy-turvy affair that saw him throw four touchdowns to four interceptions, all while passing for 288 yards. Yes, he and the Jaguars turned things around in the end and that deserves praise. But not without some help from a Chargers side that – let’s not kid ourselves – got complacent in the second half and allowed the Jaguars to get back into it.
One could also argue that Bradon Staley severely underestimated his opposite Doug Pederson and his coaching nous. Big mistake. Pederson has a Super Bowl ring, after all. He knows a thing or two about winning in the postseason.
It’s hard to imagine that Andy Reid and his precious Chiefs would make a similar mistake. Certainly not now. They, like everyone else, watched what happened in the previous round.
Trevor Lawrence admits to the NFL being rigged???? 😳 is the script real??? 😳😳 pic.twitter.com/M8tTZ9RrSX
— alex (@highIightheaven) January 15, 2023
Chiefs Have 1-0 H2H Edge
The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 27-17 on the road in Week 10. Then, Patrick Mahomes and Co. raced to a 20-0 lead before the Jaguars worked their way back into the game late in the second quarter – small consolation though it was. The Jaguars went on to outscore the Chiefs 10-7 but it wasn’t enough to change the outcome.
Mahomes passed for 331 yards and tossed four touchdowns and one interception in that Week 10 win. Indeed, Mahomes’ fourth-quarter interception set up the Jaguars for a touchdown in garbage time.
Therefore, it follows that without the turnover, the outcome would have been more lopsided than it ended up being.
They said he was only the eighth best player in the NFL. They said he was going to struggle/be found out without Tyreek Hill. Patrick Mahomes saw it all. Patrick Mahomes heard it all. And Patrick Mahomes put everyone in their place.
Patrick Mahomes said…pic.twitter.com/7Ovje1baoB
— Let’s Chat Chiefs (@LetsChatChiefs) January 9, 2023
By the Stats:
- Kansas City is 6-10-1 ATS in its last 17 games
- Kansas City is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
- Kansas City is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games as a home favorite
- Jacksonville is 9-9-0 ATS in its last 18 games
- Jacksonville is 4-5-0 ATS in its last 9 games on the road.
- Jacksonville is 3-5-0 ATS in its last 8 games on the road.
Jaguars vs Chiefs Betting Prediction
The Jaguars have bounced back three times this season to erase 17-point deficits and clinch the unlikely win. They accomplished the feat against the Las Vegas Raiders, the Dallas Cowboys and, recently, the Chargers. That fact alone makes them a legitimate threat that the Chiefs will not want to underestimate.
The Jaguars’ dangerous floater credentials notwithstanding, we are talking about the C-H-I-E-F-S. The best team in the AFC, and a perennial contender in the playoffs, Since Patrick Mahomes took over as the offensive pivot in 2018, the Chiefs have reached no less than the AFC Championship game.
Beating the Chiefs will take something extra special. They can’t get away with a bad first half, a sentiment echoed by Pederson, who told the media on Monday that the Jaguars needed to play much better if they hoped to pull off arguably the biggest upset of the Divisional Round.
Arrowhead Stadium is an intimidating arena, never mind one of the loudest stadiums in the league. Lawrence has yet to face that kind of a hostile playoff environment. Moreover, if the same kind of struggles that plagued him early in last week’s game rear their ugly head here, it will be game over.
Often the Chiefs have played down to opponents. Thus, laying 9½ or 10 points feels like a lot. That said, if the Jaguars give them an inch, they’ll take a mile. They will know not to take any chances or give this plucky team even the teeny weeniest gilmer of hope.
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.