Winning in the Big Easy doesn’t come easily and Tom Brady knows that better than most. He’s yet to pick up his first regular-season win over the New Orleans Saints at the Caesars Superdome since signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020.
Brady and the Bucs are keen to set the record straight – at least for this campaign. And as they get set to face their NFC South rivals for the first time this weekend, they have the bookmakers’ nod. That is, the odds at the sportsbook are cornered with the Bucs across the board as the odds-on faves to win over the New Orleans Saints this Sunday.
But are the Bucs a lock? And if yes, why?
Buccaneers vs Saints Odds
- Spread: Buccaneers -2½ (-115)
- Moneyline: Bucs -145 | Saints +125
- Over/Under: O 44½ (-110) | U 44½ (-110)
Bucs Due a Win
The Saints swept the Brady-inspired Bucs two years in row, in part due to Dennis Allen’s defense.
Allen’s D-line has the knack for frustrating Brady and blunting the Bucs’ O-line. Case-in-point: Their meeting in Week 15 last season, when the Bucs were left embarrassed by the Saints in a 9-0 defeat.
You can bet that performance still rankles them and they’ll be eager to atone for that loss here.
The Bucs did win the most important game over the Saints in the playoffs on the way to winning Super Bowl 55. That’s something they can hang their hats on.
Bucs, Saints Win Week 1
Both the Bucs and Saints won their season openers, but the Bucs were arguably more convincing in their 19-3 win on the road against the better team, the Dallas Cowboys.
Donovan Wilson gets the #DallasCowboys INT!
— NFL (@NFL) September 12, 2022
Well, the Cowboys were thought to be the better team and a legitimate contender until Dak Prescott’s injury in the fourth quarter against the Buccaneers. The Cowboys are not the same team without their No. 1 starter and now, with Prescott out for six to eight weeks, the Cowboys have fallen out of favor dramatically.
By contrast, the Atlanta Falcons entered the season with low expectations. They’re in the re-development phase with interim quarterback Marcus Mariota, who replaced longtime starter Matt Ryan this season.
The Falcons weren’t expected to be so challenging or play as good as their near-upset of the Saints suggested. The fact that the Saints struggled to beat the Falcons in Week 1 does take the shine off of them and their NFL odds ahead of this pivotal divisional showdown.
NFL Line Moves
Lookahead NFL Lines projected the Buccaneers as the -4 favorites for this Week 2 date in New Orleans. But following last weekend’s round of NFL action, the markets reopened with the Bucs favored by just a field goal.
And since the markets opened, the line has dropped further to Bucs -2½ – a result of the public betting down the line.
Buccaneers vs Saints Prediction
While the NFL is rarely predictable and games don’t always fall in line with the betting online markets, sometimes they do.
The premium on the win here will be great. The Bucs and Saints are tied at the top of the division, so the winner will pull ahead in the NFC South.
It’s interesting to note that the Bucs are favored over the Saints, despite their losing streak against them. That’s telling. It speaks to the quality of the Bucs, who are too good of a team to not get a win in the Brady Era over the Saints in the regular season. Streaks (winning or losing) inevitably end.
But the best is the NFL line, which is down to -2½ now. To get the Bucs at -2½, down from -4, is a steal bet that should be locked down for NFL picks against the spread immediately before the line jumps back up.
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.