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NFL Lock of the Week 4 – Chargers vs Texans

Can LA Bounce Back After Lopsided Loss?

The Los Angeles Chargers have a get-right game before them as they travel to the Houston Texans in Week 4 for an early kickoff at NRG Stadium,

As per the sportsbook, the 1-2 Chargers are the runaway favorites at -250 to take the DUB at the expense of the 0-2-1 Texans, who are priced at +210 on the Moneyline.

Image by viarprodesign on Freepik
Image by viarprodesign on Freepik

The Chargers are also laying six points to the Texans, up from an opening line of -5 as we look at the latest markets on the NFL odds board The total, in the meanwhile, is projected to 45 with both the over and under juiced to -110, respectively.

On paper, this is easily one of the biggest mismatches of the week’s slate, featuring two teams that are likely to go in different directions this season. As such, it’s the perfect game to focus on for the lock bet of the week.

Read on for the game previews and NFL odds, which include the latest stats, injury reports, and NFL lines before we round up with the choice Vegas NFL odds to spot.

Chargers vs Texans Odds

  • Spread: Chargers -6 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Chargers -250 | Texans +210
  • Over/Under: O45 (-110) | U45 (-110)

Chargers Stunned By Jaguars

The Chargers were surprisingly upset by the up-and-coming Jacksonville Jaguars 38-10 at SoFi Stadium last Sunday – in a game they were tipped to win as the -6½ home chalk according to the NFL betting markets at the time.

Justin Herbert was playing with injured ribs, Keenan Allen was sidelined and Joey Bosa succumbed to a groin injury that ultimately took him out of the game. These heavy injuries explain in part why the Chargers were ultimately outhit, outmuscled and outscored by the Jaguars.

However, credit belongs to the Jags too. To Doug Pederson for putting together a solid game plan and to Trevor Lawrence and Co. for executing it well. The Jaguars are young and inexperienced but they’re turning heads in the league this season.

The Chargers are 1-2-0 straight up (SU) and 2-1-0 against the spread (ATS).

Texans Winless

The Texans have played better than most expected they would but they have nothing to show for it, save for a tie in Week 1. The Texans stunned the Colts in a 20-20 tie to pull off the cover as the touchdown underdogs. They then went on to defy the Denver Broncos in a 16-9 defeat that saw them cover a hefty 10½ -point spread.

The Texans were close to victory for a second time this season when they held the slim advantage over the Chicago Bears, but Justin Fields and Co. rallied and eventually took the 23-20 victory. On the bright side, the Texans pushed as the +3 road underdogs to maintain a 100% record for betting against the spread.

The Texans are 0-2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS with a 3.3 losing margin average. The total has gone under in two of three games.

Chargers vs Texans Prediction

The Chargers are dealing with several injuries, which can’t be overlooked. Linebacker Joey Bosa is out indefinitely with a groin injury while receiver Jalen Guyton is on IR with a knee injury. Tackle Rashawn Slater is also on IR with a bicep injury. As well, Herbert is dealing with bruised rib cartilage.

As significant as these injuries are, the Chargers should still overcome those to come through with the straight-up win and cover for NFL picks against the spread against an underwhelming Texans outfit. To put it simply, they absolutely need a big win after being humiliated by the Jaguars in Week 3.

There is no question that the Chargers are the better team and Herbert is the superior quarterback in this matchup. The possible return of WR Allen would be a much-needed boost for the Chargers offense.

On the flip side, the Texans’ offense is hardly blowing anyone’s socks off. And the defense is even more of a worry, leaking the third-most yards per game (ypg).

The Texans’ defense is conceding a whopping total 410 ypg and they’re the worst against the run with 202.3 ypg. They’re slightly better against the pass, ranking 11th with 207.7 yards per game, but those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt.

The Texans faced Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields in the first three games of the season. All these signal callers have either struggled or put up nominal numbers in the passing game. Fields is averaging 99 ypg while Wilson is averaging 247.7 and Ryan is averaging 256.3. Compare those numbers to Herbert (303.3 ypg).

Take the Chargers to cover as the six-point favorites in a big win over the Texans this week. Color the world shocked if the Texans upset the Chargers in this spot.

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