NFL Week 13 serves up a 15-game slate spanning from Thursday to Monday Night Football. Two teams are on a bye week: the Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers.
In this column, we look at the early NFL odds and lines that are trading at the sportsbook exchange in order to highlight the best games to bet now and those that are best to bet later.
Let’s check the latest NFL odds, stats, injury reports, and NFL lines. We’ve plenty of Vegas NFL odds and NFL week 13 picks for you to consider.
NFL Odds & Lines Week 13 (Opening Lines)
- Bet Now: Buffalo Bills (-5) vs New England Patriots
- Bet Later: Denver Broncos vs Baltimore Ravens (-9½)
- Bet Now/Later: Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers (-4½)
Bet Now: Bills vs Patriots
- Opening Line: Bills -5
- Current Line: Bills -5
The week kicks off with a key AFC East battle between the Buffalo Bills (8-3-0) and the New England Patriots (6-5-0) on Thursday night in Foxborough. It’s the first meeting between these two sides in 2022. The Bills dominated the Patriots last season, including a 47-17 win in the AFC Wild Card round.
Through the preseason lookahead lens, the NFL line for this matchup was projected to Bills -3, while last week’s brief lookahead window saw bookmakers valuing the Bills at -5½.
Since markets went to press this week, the line moved by half a point against the Bills, despite their winning performance over the Lions in Detroit.
The fact that the Bills failed to cover the 10-point spread in the 28-25 win over the Lions is potentially responsible (in part) for this bias. However, the main knock-back has to be the fact that the Bills have covered just once since Week 6 – they’re 3-2-0 straight up (SU) and 1-4-0 against the spread (ATS) during this stretch.
At the same time, the Patriots failed to cover as the 2½-road underdogs in a 33-26 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The positive for Bill Belichick’s side is that the offense seemed to click into place finally with Mac Jones under center. The question is whether this was just a one-off, seeing as Jones’ stats in his sophomore season show a clear regression.
.@stefondiggs brought this @BuffaloBills fan on the field to have a catch with him.
Best Thanksgiving ever. 🥺❤️
📺: #BUFvsDET — 12:30pm ET on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/rs1CGFUmVT pic.twitter.com/Hs3Fr7252d— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2022
Going into Week 13, the playing field will be level for these arch-rivals as both are coming off Thanksgiving Thursday football action. But given recent history and Jones’ struggles to get the Patriots’ offense moving consistently, the 5-point spread does feel overly generous toward the hosts, giving them more credit than they deserve.
This is going to be especially relevant for Bills side bettors that have a genuine fear of missing out (FOMO). If that’s you, then grab the Bills at -5 while you can. It’s quite possible this line will tick up before Thursday Night Football.
Scoop on Free Play from the Locker Room
Bet Later: Broncos vs Ravens
- Opening Line: Ravens -9½
- Current Line: Ravens -9½
Arguably, the Denver Broncos are the biggest disappointment this season based on the preseason hype generated by the signing of the highly sought-after quarterback Russell Wilson.
Through 12 weeks of the 2022 campaign, the Broncos strike a woeful pose behind a 3-8-0 record. Wilson looks lost, the offense is growing increasingly frustrated and the defense is getting taxed by having to shoulder the burden every single week.
To illustrate the sheer breadth of disappointment, one has to only look at the preseason lookaheads that tipped the Baltimore Ravens as the notional home chalk at -1½ From that preseason line to last week’s lookaheads, the line for this Week 13 matchup moved by a whopping five points to Ravens -6½. But it didn’t stop there as the official line that went to press this week was Ravens -9½ .
Granted, the Ravens were upset by the Jacksonville Jaguars 28-27 in Week 12, failing to come through as the firm road favorites. However, their upset doesn’t compare to the Broncos’ lopsided 23-10 loss to the Panthers in Carolina.
It’s hard to argue in favor of Denver here. With the league’s worst offense (14.3 points per game), a quarterback that ranks amongst the worst this season and a first-time head coach that is in the firing line barely three months into his term with the Broncos, it’s no wonder that they’ve fallen out of favor fast.
Broncos WRs Jerry Jeudy (ankle), KJ Hamler (hamstring) ruled OUT vs. Carolinahttps://t.co/BIegRX08ze pic.twitter.com/KU40WG39Nl
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) November 25, 2022
That said, Is laying -9½ points with Baltimore too much? Especially considering the fact that those bettors that jumped on this game in early betting markets last week got the Ravens (what is now a sure bargain) at -6½ (or thereabouts).
For those bettors that are looking to back the Ravens for their NFL picks against the spread, it might be a good idea to wait and see which way the tide of public betting moves this line. Obviously, the intention is to get a better number, below the key number of -9. And there is a scenario that could see this happen. The Broncos are expecting wide receiver Jerry Jeudy and potentially (though less likely) K.J. Hamler to return to practice this week. Should either one or both do so, it’s possible to see this line trimmed to a more betting-friendly number.
Bet Now / Later: Dolphins vs 49ers
- Opening Line: 49ers -4½
- Current Line: 49ers -3
With both the Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers trending up in Super Bowl LVII betting markets, all eyes will be on their matchup in Week 13. It’s also an inter-conference matchup, meaning it’s a potential Super Bowl preview game as well.
Preseason lookahead NFL lines tipped the Niners as the -3½ home favorites over the Dolphins, but last week’s market sneak preview projected the Niners as the -4½ home favorites. That line emerged as the official Week 13 line following Sunday’s lap around the league, which saw the Niners shut out the New Orleans Saints (13-0) and the Dolphins ride roughshod over the Houston Texans (30-15).
The @49ers have the #1 scoring and total defense in the NFL 😤
The last time they had the top scoring defense was 1984 when they won Super Bowl XIX 👀🤯 pic.twitter.com/aGe5CvQ18o
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) November 28, 2022
The official Week 13 line didn’t hold for very long. The public went heavy on Miami at early doors and pushed the line down to a field goal.
Betting this game now or later will depend on which way bettors will be slicing their NFL picks. For those that fancy Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners’ top defense in this game, they’ll want to grab the Niners as low as possible. The current field goal line falls under both aforementioned lookaheads (preseason and last week)
Alternatively, for those that fancy Tua Tagovailoa and Co., buying high will be key. Therefore, it might be worth waiting to see if the Niners’ buyback will push the line back up again to -3½ or higher.
