NFL Parlay of the Week: Three Upsets And A Fave

Calling for an upset is a bold move. But calling for not one, not two, but three upsets in a parlay in the NFL Divisional Round? You’ve lost all your marbles. Maybe we have, but if we’re not, a 31-1 payout awaits us going by the NFL betting odds.

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The NFL Divisional Round has been dominated by favorites. Since the 2017-18 NFL playoffs, favorites have gone 13-3 in this round, including a perfect 4-0 in 2019. Last season, they went 3-1. The only underdog to win? Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

We’d have to go as far back as the 2008-09 playoffs to find a divisional round that saw three underdogs win. Now, we’re betting that this year will be another one.

NFL Divisional Round Parlay

Bengals Pounce on Titans

The Cincinnati Bengals enter Tennessee with a plethora of injuries, notably to the front line of their defense. That spells potential disaster against the returning Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans’ run-heavy attack. Otherwise, the Bengals have the 11th-best rushing defense as a road team.

So what is Cincinnati’s path to victory here? Through the air. The Titans will be able to dominate Cincinnati on the ground, but Tennessee has a subpar passing defense and allows the sixth-most plays of 20-plus yards. Against the Joe Burrow-Ja’Marr Chase duo, Tennessee will get lit up.

So even if Tennessee dominates in yards and time of possession, bet online on the Bengals to pull off the upset, likely via a comeback.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +160

San Francisco Adds to Rodgers’ Angst

There will be no more excuses for Aaron Rodgers after he loses to the San Francisco 49ers again. The soon-to-be four-time MVP is 0-3 against San Francisco in the playoffs. Some may think the cold confines of Lambeau Field will be to the Green Bay Packers’ benefit, but it did not help them last playoffs against the Buccaneers.

Will Aaron Rodgers finally get a playoff win vs. the Niners? 😅 pic.twitter.com/zdQkYfkadI

— theScore (@theScore) January 18, 2022

San Francisco’s key to victory is by pushing the Packers’ defense around with i prolific running game. The 49ers have the best red zone scoring percentage in the NFL and they are 6-1 when they eclipse 150 rushing yards. More notably, Rodgers only has two postseason game-winning drives and his passer rating is no higher than 83.6 in clutch situations.

Boost the parlay with the 49ers’ moneyline on the sportsbook.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers +200

Rams Dethrone Buccaneers

We are betting against Tom Brady in the playoffs. He has seven Super Bowl rings and holds just about every notable postseason record for a quarterback. But he’s still human, and the Buccaneers are as vulnerable as they ever will be while the Los Angeles Rams are peaking.

The Bucs are without Tristan Wirfs, their best offensive lineman, which will be bad against the Rams’ pass rush, which now features Von Miller, who is having a renaissance and knows all about beating Brady. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey could also shut down Mike Evans, further limiting Brady’s weapons.

On the other end, Matthew Stafford has a league-leading 139.6 passer rating against the blitz — something the Buccaneers tend to spam. With the monkey off his back, Stafford only needs to be decent to lead Los Angeles past the “GOAT.”

Pick: Los Angeles Rams +125

Chiefs Survive Upstart Bills

This leaves us to the only favorite to emerge: The Kansas City Chiefs, the smallest of the four. The Chiefs were already disemboweled in their first meeting against Buffalo. But since that loss, the defense has turned it up a notch and has allowed just 11.7 points at home. Kansas City has gone 6-0 at home and is 7-2 as an NFL picks against the spread in its last nine games.

The Buffalo Bills gave Bill Belichick the biggest beatdown of his playoff career but that was a classic case of squashing a tomato can. The Patriots were a declining team who could not muster any form of pressure against Josh Allen. That won’t be the case against Kansas City.

Buffalo is just 2-6 when it does not win the turnover battle and KC’s defense has forced an average of 2.2 turnovers since losing to the Bills. Take it to the bank: Kansas City completes the parlay as the sole favorite to win this weekend.