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NFL Player Prop Picks: Bills vs Chiefs on AFC Championship Game January 26

Bills vs Chiefs Prop Picks: Bet This Shade of Gray, Jan 26
Noah Gray #83 of the Kansas City Chiefs | Jamie Squire/Getty Images/AFP

The Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs meeting in the AFC Championship Game is must-see television and potentially the biggest game this season. That includes the Super Bowl. This matchup is for all the narratives including legacy and many wagers.

Kansas City (-1) is slightly favored but few will be shocked if Buffalo finally wins. For either team to win, they need players to step up. And we’re betting on these three studs to make an impact using our top NFL prop picks.

3 Best Bets for Bills vs Chiefs Player, TD Props

1. Chiefs TE Noah Gray Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-130)

Chiefs star tight end Travis Kelce has leveled up in the playoffs and is a popular bet with his many NFL player props. But rising tides lift all boats and that includes Noah Gray. The Chiefs’ “other” tight end has been held to 10 yards or fewer in four straight games, but he could finally get going here.

Before Kelce monopolized all the touches, Gray consistently racked up 3-4 catches and 20+ yards with some touchdowns, per Bills vs Chiefs stats. This includes a Week 11 meeting with Buffalo when he caught four passes for 23 yards and a pair of scores. He’s had 18+ receiving yards in 11 of his 18 appearances this season.

The NFL lines on Gray’s receiving stats are too low and folks have bet them up. We can bet on Gray to have over 1.5 receptions but it’s now juiced to -180. It’s still worth a bet. But a better bang for our buck is to go over on Gray’s receiving yards. He’ll be a key pass-catcher on Sunday.

Pick: Noah Gray – Over (16.5) Receiving Yards (-130)

 

2. Bills EDGE Von Miller – 1+ Sacks (+240)

If the Bills want to finally beat Kansas City, they must pressure Patrick Mahomes. Greg Rousseau is the team’s main edge rusher but Von Miller could channel his Super Bowl-winning form. Miller was a menace in Denver’s and the Rams’ championship runs and led the playoffs in sacks. He doesn’t have to be this good but he’ll need to get to Mahomes.

Miller has had a bit of a career renaissance this season. He has 6.0 sacks and seven tackles for loss after he had a big fat zero last year. The future Hall of Famer’s career is coming to a close and he can wrap that up with a bow by leading Buffalo to a Super Bowl title.

The 35-year-old sacked Mahomes the last time they met. He has five career sacks against the three-time Super Bowl champion. At +240, we’re betting online on Miller to make it six sacks.

Pick: Von Miller – 1+ Sacks (+240)

 

3. Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy – Anytime TD (+190)

Gray is not the only pass-catcher worthy of being an NFL pick. Worthy already burned Buffalo, the team that traded the No. 28 pick used to select him during the NFL Draft, from Week 11. He caught four passes for 61 yards and a touchdown. So at almost 2/1 odds, we like him to replicate this feat.

Worthy has emerged as the Chiefs’ top receiver. DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster are bigger names but were all but nullified against Houston. Justin Watson is a non-factor. And Rashee Rice is still on injured reserve.

The rookie who made NFL news by setting a 40-yard dash record at the NFL Combine will monopolize the looks among the Chiefs’ wideouts. So he’s a good bet to catch one for six points, especially in a potentially high-scoring game. Bet on Worthy to score a touchdown.

Pick: Xavier Worthy – 1+ TDs (+190)

 

Question of the Day

How many touchdowns has Noah Gray scored in the playoffs?


Noah Gray has zero touchdowns in the playoffs. He’s played 11 games and started five.

 

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets

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