It’s time to put those fantasy football muscles to work and make some season-long prop bets. We’ve analyzed the hundreds of props posted at the BetUS sportsbook and came up with the best bets for individual player props for the 2021 season.
Ryan is turning 36 so he may start to decline. If he’s still Matt Ryan, then going over 4,500.5 passing yards should be easy. The former MVP has passed for over 4,500 yards in seven of his last nine seasons. He was on pace to hit 4,500 in 2019 but missed one game.
The Falcons traded Julio Jones but still have Calvin Ridley while adding tight end Kyle Pitts and offensive guru Arthur Smith as the team’s coach. Add the team’s still-terrible defense and Ryan will have plenty of opportunities to air it out. With an extra game, Las Vegas’s NFL odds set the bar low with 4,500.5 passing yards.
The book also has Ryan throwing 12.5 picks. That’s in line with his 12.2 career average. The extra game may factor into that and he throws 13 or more. He averages 13.3 interceptions when playing for a non-winning team. His offensive line is also still not that good and having to learn a new system may lead to plenty of turnovers.
Ryan averages 26.7 passing touchdowns per season but has only passed for more than 28 touchdowns in three of his last eight seasons. He seems to hover around the mid-20s when it comes to touchdowns.
But with an extra game and now with a prolific pass-catching TE in Pitts, Ryan may find it a bit easier to find the endzone. The Falcons may still be a subpar team, but Ryan and co. will score a lot more.
Best Pick: Over 4,500½ Passing Yards (-115)
The journeyman that is Mike Davis may have found a home in Atlanta … or not. It’s suspect to think he’s slated to finish with around 750.5 rushing yards when there are a lot of things working against him including a bad defense and Atlanta being one of the worst run-blocking teams for the last three seasons.
Derrick Henry looked unstoppable under coach Smith’s offense in Tennessee. But the Titans had the sixth-best run-blocking per Pro Football Focus (PFF) and Henry is twice the running back Davis is. Sorry, not sorry.
Pick: Under 750½ Rushing Yards (-115)
Now that Jones is out of Atlanta, NFL predictions for Ridley are going through the roof. We’re talking about 1,400.5 receiving yards for the season. Whoa. Ridley is coming off a season where he gained 1,374 yards in 15 games. That’s over 1,500 in a 17-game schedule. Moreover, he’s the clear-cut top receiver so he should go over 1,400.5. But that’s quite a lot to bet on.
The 26-year-old is averaging 0.59 touchdowns in his career so if he plays all 17 games he should hit the double-digit mark like he did in his rookie season. He’s still an impressive red-zone target and has caught 62.9% of passes thrown at him here. But the presence of Pitts along with fellow tight end Hayden Hurst may continue eating into his TD share.
Calvin Ridley is WR1 ready.
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) August 19, 2021
Ridley is still the best receiver on the team. He did grab nine TD’s last season in 15 games. But 10.5 is quite a lot given how he’ll be suspect number-one in every NFL team’s scouting report.
Best Pick: Under 10½ Receiving Touchdowns (-115)
The Falcons were ecstatic to have Pitts, the best non-quarterback prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft fall into their laps. The fourth overall pick is already impressing opponents and looks to have a big year as an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender. He’s slated to grab 62.5 receptions despite being in competition with Hurst.
Atlanta will run a two-TE set and Pitts is clearly the better player than Hurst, who grabbed 56 passes last season. Jonnu Smith also had his best statistical seasons under Smith in Tennessee. In a pass-happy offense, Pitts should be able to snag more than 62 receptions.
While Ridley can be a nightmare to cover, just imagine how much worse Pitts is going to be. It’s not a stretch to imagine he is going to be as unstoppable on the endzone as prime Rob Gronkowski was for the Patriots. Hint: he scored 10 TDs as a rookie and averaged 0.81 TD’s per game in his first six seasons.
The line on Pitts is at 7½, which he should be able to go over. Hurst, Ridley, and the running backs are bound to steal plenty of his thunder. But bet on NFL beasts like Pitts to get his.