With the NFL season just around the corner, it’s time to put those fantasy football muscles to work and make some season-long prop bets. We’ve analyzed the hundreds of props posted at the BetUS sportsbook and came up with the best bets for individual player props for the 2021 season.
Here are the plays for Cleveland Browns:
Las Vegas’s NFL odds have Mayfield passing for 3875.5 yards, which is 228 yards per game and a slight increase over last season but still down from his career average of 241.6. The better the Browns have gotten, the fewer passing yards Mayfield has averaged.
The trend should continue here as Cleveland upgraded its defense, particularly with its pass defense. The Browns are very much a defensive team so Mayfield may not need to sling the rock as often so expect modest yardage out of him.
A great defense will also mean Mayfield may transition into becoming more of a caretaker than a gunslinger for the Browns. This means he’ll be making fewer high-risk throws. He already plays behind the NFL’s best offensive line so his interceptions shouldn’t exceed 12.
Best Pick: Under 12½ Interceptions (-115)
Mayfield’s loss may be the running game’s gain. Nick Chubb only played 12 games last season but also rushed for 12 touchdowns. For his career, he’s averaging 0.63 touchdowns per game, which is around 11 in 17 games. Hence the 11.5 betting line.
But as the leading back and the red zone favorite, expect Chubb to continue shoving himself into the end zone. Ten of his 12 touchdowns in 2020 came in the red zone. Kareem Hunt and Co. may have some shine in the long game, but when the Browns are in position, it’s Chubb’s time.
Pick: Over 11½ Rushing Touchdowns (-130)
Speaking of the other back, there is a solid case to make for Hunt outgaining Chubb in scrimmage yards. As the more versatile back, Hunt gained 1,145 scrimmage yards to Chubb’s 1,217 (Chubb missed four games).
Hunt should also be able to stay healthier as he won’t be trucking through defenders like Chubb. But even if he stays healthy, expect Hunt to eclipse the 650.5 rushing yards as Cleveland’s offense is powered mainly by the running backs.
Pick: Over 650½ Rushing Yards (-115)
Odell Beckham Jr.
Bet on NFL media and the like to find a way to make Beckham a storyline this season as the mercurial receiver finds himself at an odds with the team. The three-time Pro Bowler has seen his production dip in the last three seasons, going from 87.7 in his last year in New York to 64.7 in 2019 to just 45.6 in his injury-shortened 2020 season.
— clevelanddotcom (@clevelanddotcom) August 20, 2021
Even if he isn’t washed up, the odds are not in Beckham’s favor. Cleveland is a run-first team and Mayfield may be throwing the rock more to Jarvis Landry and the tight ends as he checks down more than he airs it out. Beckham’s health is also another issue as he has only played one full season in his last four. Go under the 975.5 yards.
Beckham has caught more touchdowns in his first two seasons (25) than in his last four (16). In fact, he’s only averaged 0.41 touchdowns a game so if he plays 17 games (and that’s a big if), he’ll hit seven scores if his average holds.
Best Pick: Under 975½ Receiving Yards (-115)
Unlike Beckham, Landry has found himself being more of a jack of all trades for the team’s passing offense. He’s also stayed healthier, though last season was the first time he failed to hit 80 receptions. His line is at 82.5, which should be hittable in a 17-game schedule and if he stays around his 60 percent catch rate with Cleveland
The yardage is another story for Landry. He may get plenty of receptions, but his average depth of target (ADOT) has continued to drop, going from 11 in 2018 to 9.7 in 2019 to 8.2 last season. But if he sticks to his 12.7 yards per reception average, he needs to snag just 79 catches to break the 1,000-yard barrier for fourth time.
Best Pick: Over 1,000½ Receiving Yards (-115)
The Browns paid a premium for Hooper and he has been a letdown in terms of his stats. But he doesn’t need to do much to beat the 55.5 receptions he’s lined with. Hooper averaged 3.54 grabs last season. If he plays 17 games, that’s 60 receptions. The asterisk here is the presence of David Njoku, who could command more targets.
With 5.5 receiving touchdowns, oddsmakers are indicating that Mayfield will distribute the ball to a point that most of the receivers will finish with five to seven touchdowns. Still, Hooper has been more consistent at catching than Njoku and should be a priority target when in the red zone.
Best Pick: Over 5½ Receiving Touchdowns (+110)
Garrett has been a wrecking ball on the defense, having averaged 0.83 sacks per game. In a 17-game schedule, that’s on pace for 14 and well over the 12.5 sacks he’s projected to have. The addition of defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and a better secondary could help Garrett better at his job.
How’s this as an NFL prediction: He’ll hit 13 sacks and potentially even lead the AFC in this stat.