With the NFL season just around the corner, it’s time to put those fantasy football muscles to work and make some season-long prop bets. We’ve analyzed the hundreds of props posted at the BetUS sportsbook and came up with the best bets for individual player props for the 2021 season.
Here are the plays for Miami Dolphins:
- Las Vegas NFL odds
- bet on NFL
- NFL predictions
Bet on NFL players to surprise or disappoint and Tagovailoa is lined as if he is set to do either emphatically. The sophomore has passing yards set at 3750.5, which puts him tied with Zach Wilson and Sam Darnold as the second-lowest among offered quarterbacks.
Tagovailoa started nine games last season and finished with 1,814 yards. This puts him at a pace to finish with 3,426 yards in a 17-game schedule. The leash is also the shortest of the three as the Dolphins are fighting for a playoff spot. What could prevent him from going over the totals is Miami’s shoddy offensive line.
Coinciding with his 3750.5 passing yards level, Tagovailoa’s interceptions are set at 10.5. While his first five starts went swimmingly, he began to become error-prone. Tagovailoa threw five picks in his four final games, including three in his last game against Buffalo in a game Miami needed to win to make the playoffs.
The line is at 10.5 either because Tagovailoa will improve dramatically and be less turnover-prone or because he’ll be just as bad and get benched. It may be more of the middle as he plays well enough to keep starting but not well enough to avoid getting picked. He should throw more than 10.5 interceptions.
Like his passing yards, the NFL odds have Tagovailoa’s passing touchdown totals pretty low at 22.5. It doesn’t seem too difficult to go over 22.5 in a 17-game schedule as that’s just 1.33 a game or four every three games. But Tagovailoa’s 3.8% touchdown put him as 23rd overall and the likes of Andy Dalton and Gardner Minshew outperformed him.
Miami threw the ball 58.08% of possessions, including nearly 60% in Tagovailoa’s final three games. He threw two touchdowns in 106 passing attempts. Tagovailoa’s pass protection could force him to continue making poor reads.
Tagovailoa isn’t known so much for his running ability. He ran for 109 yards last season in 36 attempts for three yards per carry. However, unless the Dolphins’ pass protection improves, Tagovailoa may find himself scrambling again.
The 225.5 rushing yards shouldn’t be too difficult to go over if Tagovailoa plays the bulk of the schedule. Even the likes of Ryan Tannehill and Carson Wentz went past that and Tagovailoa is just as mobile if not more than them.
Best Pick: Over 10½ Interceptions (-115)
The other Dolphin in a microscope will be Tagovailoa’s Alabama teammate: WR Jaylen Waddle. The first-round pick is expected to start with DeVante Parker and Will Fuller and was the second wide receiver taken in the draft. At 60.5 receptions, NFL predictions. have Waddle emerging as one of this year’s most prolific rookies.
Despite Tagovailoa’s and the Dolphins’ potential passing struggles, Tagovailoa should get over 60 receptions. He will mainly be their slot receiver but can be played in many situations given his ridiculous speed. But he has to stay healthy and as a physical receiver, there are concerns he’ll get banged up considering he’s already coming off an ankle injury.
Again, this hinges on how well Waddle can stay off the injury list. Assuming he plays at least 13 to 14 games, he may just break 800 yards on the betting lines. The key factors for him are his speed, ability to elude or break away from defenders, and versatility.
Waddle can be a deep ball threat or break off massive chunks as a slot receiver. All it takes is a little bit of room and he’ll turn on the burners.
It doesn’t seem like much, but if Waddle gets over his 4.5 receiving touchdowns line then it would be big. Waddle is competing with many other Dolphins for looks in the end zone including Parker and Fuller who had four and eight touchdowns, respectively. Fuller’s came with the Texans. TE Mike Gesicki will also get a lot of looks and RB Myles Gaskin will also be involved.
Waddle’s edge is that Tagovailoa is more familiar with him so he may look for him more when he’s in a pinch. That may not always translate to touchdowns, but if he’s Tagovailoa’s preferred target then he could just hit five scores.