With the NFL season just around the corner, it’s time to put those fantasy football muscles to work and make some season-long prop bets. We’ve analyzed the hundreds of props posted at the BetUS Sportsbook and came up with the best bets for individual player props for the 2021 season.
Here are the plays for Tennessee Titans:
If you play NFL Fantasy, Ryan Tannehill may be that one quarterback everyone is targeting as a hot “sleeper.” The 2019 Pro Bowler has only averaged 3,280.5 passing yards in his previous two seasons with Tennessee. But he could break out in a big way this season with the addition of Julio Jones.
Las Vegas’ NFL odds have Tannehill throwing for around 4,050½ yards, which would be higher than his average. The Titans’ suspect defense may force Tannehill to air it out more than he usually does and even if he stays within his average, he’s flirting with 4,000 yards. A shaky offensive line be damned, Tannehill will hit the over.
Tannehill has not thrown for more than nine picks in his last three seasons and his 1.7 percent interception rate with the Titans for the last two seasons is top-five in the league. This speaks volumes to Tannehill’s efficiency as the O-line was ranked just 25th in pass-blocking by Pro Football Focus (PFF) last season.
But with Tannehill and the Titans looking to sling the rock more, the interceptions could see a slight uptick. That’s why the number is set at 9½. Tannehill can see an overall increase in his passing stats, picks included.
Continuing with the trend of Tannehill’s passing totals going up, bank on him to go over 30½ passing touchdowns as he’s lined in the sportsbook. Tannehill threw for 33 touchdowns last season and has averaged 2.36 passing touchdowns a game with Tennessee. Multiply that by 17 games and he’s flirting with 40.
Even if Tannehill can’t be that prolific with finding the end zone, he only needs to average 1.82 passing TDs over a 17-game schedule to go over 30½. Lock it in.
Best Pick: Over 30½ Passing Touchdowns (-115)
Opposite to Tannehill, now would be the time to fade Derrick Henry. That’s an intimidating thought as “King Henry” has been unstoppable the past two seasons, averaging 115.1 rushing yards with an eye-popping 5.2 yards per carry. But history, specifically the “Curse of 370,” indicates Henry could see a steep decline this season.
👑🏈 ALL HAIL @KingHenry_2 👑🏈
The players voted Derrick Henry the best RB in the NFL!
— NFL (@NFL) August 28, 2021
Backs who rush for more than 370 times in a season tend to underperform or get injured the following season. The last victim, DeMarco Murray, ran for just 702 yards after rushing for 1,845 the previous season. History is littered with examples but even if Henry’s body holds up to play all 17 games, don’t expect him to go over the projected 1,575½ yards.
On the tracks of the Henry fade train, take it a step further and bet against him to go over 14½ rushing touchdowns. Henry has averaged 15 over his past three seasons and he’s virtually unstoppable once he sniffs the goal line.
But on the same NFL prediction as the Curse, running backs don’t only see a decline in rushing yards but also in touchdowns. Henry’s former teammate, Murray, saw his rushing TDs cut in half. The Titans will likely still give to their bellcow when in the red zone but hitting 15-plus touchdowns is a task and a half.
Best Pick: Under 1575½ Rushing Yards (-115)
A thought may have occurred: With the acquisition of Jones, Brown’s usage will take a hit. If you’re betting online, Brown’s expectations have slightly decreased with 80½ receptions and 1125½ receiving yards. Over the course of 17 games, that averages to below the five catches and 76.8 receiving yards he had last year.
But Brown is the Titans’ go-to receiver and Jones may figure to be a more useful decoy than target for Tannehill. All Brown needs to do is maintain his average from last season and play all 17 games and he should be able to eclipse both numbers.
To dig deeper on his receiving yards, Brown’s yards after catch per reception (YAC/R) decreased sharply last season to 6.2 from 8.9. His drops also increased. Overall, though, the Titans will be passing the ball more often and even with the addition of Jones, the team lost its three next best receivers from last season.
That’s over 40 percent of target shares freed up and Jones will demand more coverage than each three individually. So with all that said, expect Brown to have stats that pop this year.
Best Pick: Over 1,125½ Receiving Yards (-115)
When the Titans acquired Jones, they were signaling to the rest of the league they were ready to jump up a tier in terms of Super Bowl contenders. Tennessee needed to upgrade its passing attack after finishing 30th in passing attempts and 23rd in passing yards. They can’t rely on Henry forever.
Jones gives the Titans a 1B to Brown’s 1A. Whether Jones becomes a decoy or the team’s best receiver, expect him to contend with Brown for targets. He’s lined at 80½ receptions and 1,050½ receiving yards – numbers eerily similar to Brown – and should be able to go over both totals. He is far from washed up and has averaged 90.2 receiving yards per game since 2019 with a 66.7 catch rate.
It’s amazing that a receiver of Jones’ caliber has only averaged six receiving touchdowns a season. In Atlanta, he was the primary target for defenses. He’ll finally get some help in the end zone as he defenses cue in on Brown and Henry, allowing Jones to snag some easy catches.