X
Skip to content

NFL Week 10 Upset Pick – Colts vs Raiders

Trip to Vegas: Saturday in the Park?

Few believe former ESPN analyst Jeff Saturday will lead the Indianapolis Colts to a victory in his NFL coaching debut against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday. Certainly, not the oddsmakers, who’ve devalued the Colts’ stock across betting online markets.

True to form, the BetUS sportsbook tips the Colts as the conspicuous +180 underdogs on the moneyline and at +4½ in point spread betting. The total, in the meanwhile, is projected to be 41 points with the over and under juiced to -110, respectively.

NFL Week 10 Upset Pick - Colts vs Raiders
Derek Carr #4 of the Las Vegas Raiders leads the team - Eric Espada/Getty Images/AFP

But, is an upset really off the cards? Let’s face it, the Raiders haven’t exactly covered themselves in glory this season. They’re on the fast track to irrelevancy, down in fourth place in the AFC West with a 2-6 record through nine weeks. So, what is their selling point? That is, assuming there is one at all.

Let’s check the latest NFL odds, stats, injury reports and NFL lines for Colts vs Raiders. We’ve plenty of Vegas NFL odds and NFL week 10 picks for you to consider.

Colts vs Raiders NFL Odds

  • Spread: Raiders -4½ (-110)
  • Moneyline: Colts +180 | Raiders -220
  • Over/Under: O41 (-110) | U41 (-110)

Colts Devalued By Saturday

The appointment of ESPN analyst Saturday as interim head coach for the Colts left many in the media and punditocracy gobsmacked. In the space of 24 hours, the team that had started the season with so much promise – as a top contender in the AFC South and, even, a contender for Super Bowl LVII – had been humbled.

Things started going wrong right out of the gates. The optics worsened when Frank Reich benched quarterback Matt Ryan one week, then fired offensive coordinator Marcus Brady the following week. But Reich’s sacking and the Saturday hiring caught markets by surprise and caused widespread alarm, prompting the Colts’ odds to plunge.

Case in point: The Colts are second in the AFC South with a better record than the Jaguars (2-6-0), but they’re an afterthought now at +850 to win the AFC South in comparison to the Jaguars, who are priced at +350. That’s telling.

The overriding concern (unproven) is that the Colts are selling out on the 2022 NFL season, despite owner Jim Irsay vehemently dismissing such a notion out of hand. He’s endorsed Saturday, validating his decision to hire the former Pro Bowl center by citing his experience, knowledge and je ne sais quoi.

If Irsay is right, many will be eating their words this week.

— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) November 10, 2022

Raiders Continue to Be Overrated

The Raiders are the most disappointing team in the NFL (true story). It’s not even up for debate.

For all the hype and pomp that preceded the hiring of Josh McDaniels and the acquisition of wide receiver Davante Adams, among others, this team has failed to deliver on their preseason expectations.

In the last two weeks, they were humiliated by the Andy Dalton-led New Orleans Saints in a 24-0 shutout and beaten by the Trevor Lawrence-led Jacksonville Jaguars 27-20.

It’s hard to decide which of their last two defeats is worse or more defining. It’s a close call. Is it Derek Carr’s feeble effort and the entire offense going MIA in Week 8’s loss to the Saints? Or is it the epic second-half collapse versus the Jaguars in Week 9 that saw them fritter away a 17-0 lead on the way to a 27-20 loss? Dilemma, dilemma.

From Lookaheads To Week 10 NFL Odds & Lines

The NFL lines have been through the wringer. Firstly, preseason NFL lookahead lines projected the Raiders at -2 for this Week 10 contest with the Colts. That was an unbiased period when both teams were held in high regard.

As the season got underway, perceptions began to change. Before Week 9, a fresh set of NFL lookahead lines saw this line go up to Raiders -3½. Then, at the close of Week 9, the markets reopened with the Raiders as high as -6½ on Monday.

The line quickly dropped to Raiders -6. Then, on Thursday, it dropped to Raiders -4½ after news that the Raiders put Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller on IR broke. Still, the NFL line, as it is currently, is double what it was in preseason lookaheads.

It’s easy to pinpoint the events that impacted the Colts in this market, from a three-game losing streak, capped off by a 26-3 loss to the New England Patriots last Sunday, to firing Reich and hiring Saturday in his stead.

It’s less clear where the Raiders have had an impact on this market. Their season is a shambles. They can’t seem to buy a win no matter how hard they try. And they’re a few losses away from becoming irrelevant this season. But there was barely any noticeable impact on the odds until Thursday when news of Renfrow’s and Waller’s injuries moved the line against the Raiders from -6 to -4½. That’s interesting, to say the least.

Colts vs Raiders Betting Verdict:

It’s not surprising to see the Raiders favored at home in this matchup. What is surprising, though, is the sheer scale of favoritism in the moneyline odds and the point spread currently trading.

Are the Raiders worth betting at -220 (bet $220 to win $100)? Even if they were to win, will they cover the 4½-point spread? Keep in mind, if you can’t back the Raiders at -4½, then backing them at -5 (or higher, should the line move again) will be even riskier.

What it comes down to is trust. Can bettors genuinely trust the Raiders to deliver on either score? When they’ve been in winnable games before only to spectacularly fail.

All things being considered, this market has the whiff of an overreaction on all fronts. Thus, the value may well be with the Colts instead. Go figure!

Granted, backing the Colts at +180 (bet $100 to win $180) is a longshot bet based on very little tangible evidence. It’s definitely not a bet for the faint-hearted – so don’t go betting the farm on the upset here. But when everyone is telling you to go one way (the Raiders), it’s usually a sign to go another. The quintessential zig when you should zag. (Fingers crossed Irsay is on to something with Saturday and this isn’t going to be a total trainwreck!)

 

“The odds and predictions in the article are based on time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.”

Did you find this article interesting?

Comments (0)