NFL Week 11 Best Over/Under Bets

NFL Odds: Week 11 O/U Predictions & Picks

• Bears vs Falcons, O/U 49
  

  Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

The Chicago Bears (3-7-0) aren’t winning many games, but Justin Fields is on fire and the Bears offense is competing a lot better as a result. One NFL betting trend that practically leaps off the page is the Over cashing in their last four games as the Bears improve to a 6-4-0 record versus the total. The other pertinent stat: Chicago is scoring an average of 31 points per game and conceding a whopping 38.3 ppg in the last three games.

Marcus Mariota has the Atlanta Falcons (4-6-0) in the playoff race in the weak NFC South, They’re a modest 5-5-0 against the total overall with an average 23 ppg scored and 2-2-0 against the total through the last four games with an average of 21.5 ppg scored. The pertinent stat here is that they’re 2-3-0 versus the total at home with an average of 26.2 ppg scored and 23 ppg conceded.

When these offenses are clicking, they can put up points in a hurry. Add to that two defenses that can’t be trusted and a dome, breaching the 49 point total that is currently trading looks very likely.

Pick: Over 49 (-110)

• Browns vs Bills, O/U 50
  

  Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Due to extreme weather in Buffalo, this game has been moved to Ford Field in Detroit. As a result, the total for this game skyrocketed from approximately 41 points to a whopping 50 points later in the week. Clearly, removing the elements will benefit both these offenses. Especially the Bills, who boast the league’s second-highest scoring offense (27.8 ppg) and could light it up under the ideal conditions in Motown. The Browns’ offense ranks 10th with 24.1 ppg on average but the defense ranks 31st with 26.4 ppg allowed. As well, the total has gone Over in six of Cleveland’s nine games.

Picks: Over 50 (-110)

• Eagles vs Colts, O/U 45½

           Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Are the Jeff Saturday-inspired Indianapolis Colts for real? Or was the interim coach’s winning debut only as good as the opponent [Raiders] were bad? It’s impossible to know for certain, but if the Colts deliver a second straight upset against the high-flying Philadelphia Eagles (8-1), Saturday might be a shoe-in for Coach of the Year!

The decision to reinstate Matt Ryan paid dividends as the veteran led the Colts to the 25-20 win over the Raiders. He was helped along by a rejuvenated Jonathan Taylor, who had one of his best performances this year.On the season, the Colts are merely 2-8-0 against the total.

The Eagles have seen the Over cash in six of their nine games. This is largely down to their high-octane offense, which ranks third in the league (27.3 ppg). By contrast, the defense is stingy allowing just 18.3 ppg. However, the Eagles are coming off a loss to the Commanders that was underscored by four costly turnovers..

Picks: Over 45½ (-110) 

• Cowboys vs Vikings
  Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

The Minnesota Vikings (8-1) are flying by the seat of their pants, eking out victories. The Vikings offense is averaging 25.1 ppg. That number goes up to 28.5 ppg when they’re playing at U.S. Bank Stadium and up to  29 ppg in their last three outings.

On the flipside, the Vikings are conceding 21.2 ppg. That number is down to 19.8 ppg when they’re on home turf. That said, it’s also up to 24.3 ppg in their last three games.

The Cowboys will be looking to bounce back from a loss to the Green Bay Packers last Sunday. They are averaging 23.4 ppg, but that number goes up to 33.7 ppg in their last three games,  which coincides with the return of Dak Prescott from injury. The defense has been the Cowboys’ strength, ranking fifth overall with 18.2 ppg.

Although both these teams are solid and their defenses can be relied upon to make the big plays and strops, this could turn into a veritable shootout between Prescott and Kirk Cousins.

Picks: Over 48½ (-110) 

• Chiefs vs Chargers
  Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

The Chiefs are the league’s highest-scoring offense with 30 ppg while the defense is conceding 22.9 ppg on average. In spite of the gaudy numbers for this offense, the Under has cashed in five of Kansas City’s nine games.

The Chargers are averaging a modest 22.2 ppg and conceding 25.3 ppg. The total has gone Under in five of Los Angeles’ nine games this season.

Stats aside, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert bring out the best in each other. This has been the case from their first meeting in September 2020, won in overtime by the Chiefs (23-20). Since then, their ensuing four meetings have combined for 49 points or higher, including this year’s 27-24 win by the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

Thus, if this billing lives up to its expectations, it’s likely that we’ll be treated to another high-scoring showdown between Mahomes and Herbert in Sunday Night Football at SoFi Stadium. The Chiefs won the last meeting in SoFi Stadium 34-28.

Picks: Over 53 (-110)

Quick-Fire NFL Picks: The Rest of Week 11 Games

• New York Jets vs New England Patriots, O/U 38 – Picks Over 38 (-110)
• Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints, O/U 39 – Under 39 (-110)
• Detroit Lions vs New York Giants, O/U 45 – Under 45 (-110)
• Carolina Panthers vs Baltimore Ravens, O/U 41½ – Under 41½
• Washington Commanders vs Houston Texans, O/U 41 – Over 41 (-110)
• Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos, O/U 41 – Under 41 (-110)
• Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 40½ – Over 40 ½ (-110)
• San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals (MEXICO CITY), O/U 43½ – Over 43½ (-110)