The Jeff Saturday-inspired Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1) will look to deliver a second straight surprise as they welcome the Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) to Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday.
Predictably, the markets aren’t exactly on board. They’re tipping the Colts as the firm home underdogs, priced at +240 in moneyline betting. As well, the Eagles are catching a touchdown in point spread betting while the total is projected to 45½ points.
Does the market have it right? Are the Eagles really a lock bet to win and cover? Or are the Colts being undervalued at the expense of the much-fancied Eagles?
Read on as we preview Sunday’s matchup between the Eagles and Colts for our weekly lock bet NFL predictions below. You might be surprised by the side we’ve locked in on here.
Eagles vs Colts NFL Odds
- Spread: Eagles -7½ (-110)
- Moneyline: Eagles -290 | Colts +240
- Over/Under: O45½ (-110) | U45½ (-110)
Jim Irsay is a genius! After his team upset the Las Vegas Raiders on the road in Week 10, the Indianapolis Colts owner was unabashedly self-congratulatory, taking a victory lap, handing out game balls to interim head coach Jeff Saturday and several other players, and sticking it to his critics on social media.
Irsay’s decision to replace Frank Reich with an inexperienced Saturday was met with quiet disapproval and criticism from basically everyone in the media, punditocracy, and beyond. This widespread disbelief permeated through the NFL betting markets that promptly sent the Colts into Allegiant Stadium as the touchdown underdogs, only to get burned when they clinched the odds-defying 25-20 win.
One win doesn’t spell a turnaround or make a season. So, as good as the Colts (4-5-1) are feeling about themselves right now, they are, once again, staring at underdog odds. This time, it’s versus the Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 11.
All you critics…you criticize all of us in the NFL for losing…When we make moves to Win… you act so righteous! “Who You Crappin’..”. Just Win,Baby!!🏈✌️
— Jim Irsay (@JimIrsay) November 14, 2022
Eagles Look to Bounce Back
The Eagles are in a rare spot, coming off their first loss of the season and facing a short week with a road game against a team that is buoyed by their first winning outing.
The Eagles reeled off eight straight wins before stumbling at home to the Washington Commanders on Monday Night. It was one of those nights when things simply didn’t go the way of Jalen Hurts and Co.
That the Eagles (-11) lost isn’t totally surprising. Streaks inevitably end. It’s the law of averages. But it was the manner in which they lost that was surprising, totally outplayed and outshot in the 32-21 shocker.
It marked the second straight game in which the Eagles failed to cover the spread and the fourth in 2022. By the stats, the Eagles are 5-4-0 against the spread (ATS) with an 8.8 winning margin on average. On the road, however, they’re merely 1-3-0 ATS with an 8.5 winning margin on average.
Jalen Hurts made all of the right plays. Just one of those nights. This pass hit AJ in the hands, the missed face mask caused the Goedert fumble, and Quez fumbled that long pass. Don’t forget that stupid roughing the passer penalty to end the game.
— Glen (@Glenjr1988) November 15, 2022
Eagles vs Colts Betting Prediction
Lookahead NFL lines had the Eagles tipped as high as -10½ in spread betting, but following Monday’s loss to the Commanders, the line dropped substantially. Early sharp action on the Colts following their upset win also helped push this line down to the key number of -7.
It’s easy to dismiss what the Colts did as a one-off and this market as an overreaction to their win over a Raiders side in free fall. But what if it isn’t? Their renaissance was helped along by the reinstatement of Matt Ryan and the resurgence of Jonathan Taylor.
The Eagles do strike an attractive pose for NFL picks against the spread in part because the line (-7½) falls right into their wheelhouse according to the stats (average winning margin of 8.8 points).
But games aren’t played on paper. The Commanders’ win over the Eagles is proof positive. Moreover, Washington just provided the league with a handy blueprint on how to beat the previously unbeaten Eagles. It’s not a leap to expect that everyone’s taken notice.
Fortune favors the brave, so the saying goes. The Colts are on a high right now. If they can carry the momentum into this game, they could very well surprise – at the very least, by turning this into a competitive game and covering the spread.