NFL Week 11 Predictions: Bet Low Total, Underdogs in AFC West 11/17
- Get the best NFL Week 11 odds at BetUS.
- Denver continues to cash on low-scoring games, thanks to its defense
- Kansas City thrives as an underdog, especially with Patrick Mahomes
- Check our top NFL Week 11 predictions for the AFC West.
If Week 10 proved anything, the AFC West remains an elite division in the NFL. Err, that is without the Las Vegas Raiders (who were on a bye). As we make Week 11 AFC West picks, we’ll exclude Las Vegas and focus on the other three teams. Denver should feature in another low-scoring match while the Chiefs and Chargers could produce upsets. But will it be for or against them? Find out.
WHOLESOME: #Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes respects the hell out of #Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix after their first career meeting.
“WAY TO PLAY YOUR A** OFF. KEEP LEADING THOSE DUDES. IT’S JUST THE FIRST ONE, WE GOT A LOT OF THESE”
Respect 🫡🫡🫡pic.twitter.com/4sSsKotLDC
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) November 11, 2024
Top 3 Best NFL Week 11 Predictions in AFC West
1. Falcons vs Broncos Under 44
Denver cashed two of our AFC West bets from last week against Kansas City. We can even argue that Denver was one blocked field goal (and many controversial calls) away from handing the Chiefs their first defeat. Alas, the Broncos must rebound against Atlanta. We’re not sure we like them as slight favorites. But we are betting online on the under here.
The Broncos still have one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses. Denver gives up under 18 points per game and 4.71 yards per play. On the flip side, Denver also averages just over 20 points. If the Broncos had not faced Baltimore or some awful NFC South teams, its totals would consistently go under.
Atlanta is not a terrible NFC South team. The Falcons are the favorites to win the division and are good on both sides of the ball. But we say “good” because Atlanta shouldn’t torch Denver nor should it get lit up. The total is set at 44, which is still a tad too high on the NFL odds. Bet the under, which has cashed in nine of Atlanta’s last 10 games against AFC opponents.
Bet on Falcons vs Broncos Under 44
2. Chiefs +1 (Ev)
The Chiefs failed to cover against Denver. But they came up with a clutch stop when it mattered. Against Buffalo as a slight underdog, all Kansas City has to do is win. The Chiefs may have lost their last three regular-season meeting with Buffalo. But Kansas City has also won four of its last five games at Orchard Park.
Patrick Mahomes was HOT at the end of the loss to the Bills 😳
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/D40diq5fq3
— ESPN (@espn) December 11, 2023
The road team has won six of the last eight matchups. This NFL betting trend should continue as Kansas City has played a more difficult schedule and knows how to win close games. Buffalo remains the same. It is a team that beats bad opponents but loses to elite ones.
The Bills’ two losses came against Houston and Baltimore. All but one of their wins have come against teams at .500 or worse. Kansas City, on the other hand, beat Baltimore and San Francisco among the list of playoff-caliber opponents. And Patrick Mahomes as an underdog? 10-3 straight-up and 11-1-1 against the spread. Bet KC.
Bet on Kansas City Chiefs +1 (Ev)
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3. Bengals +1 (Ev)
The Chargers have something in common with the Bills: most if not all of their wins have come against bad opponents. Los Angeles is 6-3 and five of its wins have come against opponents with a combined record of 12-35. As such, it has some bloated NFL stats. We’ll take the Bengals as the desperate road underdog in this spot.
“It’s a tough pill to swallow.”
Joe Burrow discusses the Bengals 4-6 record despite playing good football.#TNFonPrime pic.twitter.com/oXC9Mr8SYw
— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) November 8, 2024
Cincinnati has played a tougher schedule and nearly beat Kansas City and Baltimore. We can even argue the Bengals got robbed by the referees in the latter. This team is still very much a Super Bowl contender, especially with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase putting up 2006 Tom Brady and Randy Moss highlights.
We’re not sure we can trust Zac Taylor in a close contest. But we may not have to as this may finally be the game where the Bengals “expose” the Chargers. Our NFL expert pick today is a bold one: bet the Bengals to beat the Chargers and to do it emphatically.
Bet on Cincinnati Bengals +1 (Ev)
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets
Questions Of The Day
Which AFC West team has the best record against the spread (ATS)?
The Denver Broncos are 7-3 ATS, which is the best among AFC West teams.
What are the Kansas City Chiefs’ odds of finishing with an unbeaten record?
The Chiefs enter Week 11 at odds of +750 to finish the regular season at 17-0.
