The New England Patriots and the Minnesota Vikings have the privilege of bringing down the curtain on the NFL’s annual Thanksgiving Day tripleheader slate when they face off at the U.S. Bank Stadium on Thursday Night Football.
The Patriots (6-4-0) bolted to victory in Week 11 against the New York Jets with a punt return for a touchdown and the Vikings (8-2-0) were eviscerated in a lopsided defeat and left to waste by the Dallas Cowboys.
Despite the contrasting fortunes of these two teams in Week 11, the market is pretty clear in its favor when we look at the official Week 12 lines. The hosts are tipped as the -135 favorites on the Moneyline and laying 2½ points on the spread. Whereas the total is projected to be 42½ points with the Over and Under juiced to -110, respectively.
Below, we’ve got you primed with a same-game parlay for this Week 12 TNF clash. Find out how we’re lining up our NFL picks, using the point spread and the total.
Patriots vs Vikings Same-Game Parlay
- First Leg: Patriots +2½ (-105) or Patriots +115
- Second Leg: Under 42½ (-110)
First Leg: Patriots +2½ (-105) or Patriots ML at +115
Considering the point spread sits below a field goal, it’s safe to say that the bookmakers are expecting a close game between these two inter-conference rivals.
The Vikings are the slight favorites at -2½, but the shine has come off them (a bit) after crashing back down to earth last Sunday.
By contrast, the Patriots have the momentum following last weekend’s inspired effort against the Jets that propelled them to a 6-4-0 record and up to third place in the AFC East.
— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) November 20, 2022
Bill Belichick’s side is not without its issues, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Mac Jones appears to have regressed in his sophomore season and the Patriots offense is suffering the consequence of his inconsistent play. But the defense is a different story.
Their defense is no slouch. It can keep this game close. Very little separates the New England and Dallas defenses, in fact, and we saw in gruesome detail what the Cowboys did only a few days ago, holding the Vikings to pedestrian stats in the 40-3 beatdown.
Since the spread is pegged to just 2½ points, it might be better to look at the Patriots at +115 on the moneyline instead for this parlay. That is, if you believe the Patriots will not only cover this spread but actually win this game outright.
Second Leg: Under 42½ (-110)
Whether the score climbs above or falls below the projected 42½-point total largely depends on which team will control the tempo of the game. By our reckoning, it may well go the Patriots’ way given the strength of their defense.
The Vikings were one of the hottest teams in the league and riding a seven-game winning streak – until they ran into the Cowboys in Week 11. Over Minnesota’s promising run of form, it boasted a scoring average of 28 points per game (ppg) while conceding 22.8 ppg. Four of those seven wins were decided by fine margins (four points or less) and three featured winning margins of seven and/or eight points.
Thoughts on Kirk Cousins. I love the guy. Most just love to laugh about him. pic.twitter.com/IcVeqDO3aW
— Kyle Brandt (@KyleBrandt) November 18, 2022
Kirk Cousins and Co. will be keen to atone for Sunday’s disappointing turnout. But the Patriots, ironically, face the second-stingiest defense in the league after the Cowboys.
The Patriots’ defense is doing most of the heavy lifting this season, ranking fourth in total defense and second in points allowed (16.9 ppg) behind the Cowboys (16.7 ppg).
Fun fact: The Patriots are yet to allow a touchdown in the month of November. They held the Colts and the Jets to just three points each in their last two games.
In the last six games, the Patriots have conceded an average of 11.8 ppg – a number that was largely skewed by the Chicago Bears’ 33-14 win in Week 7. If we take that result out, the average conceded in the other five games drops down to 7.6 ppg. As well, the high in those five games was 17 points allowed while the low was zero (a 29-0 shutout of the Detroit Lions).
Patriots vs Vikings Same-Game Parlay Prediction
Toting up our parlay picks, we have options to consider.
- Parlay 1: Patriots + 2½ (-105) and the Under 42½ (-110), which yields parlay NFL odds of +273 as per the BetUS parlay calculator.
- Parlay 2: Patriots +115 and the Under 42½ (-110), which yields parlay NFL odds of +310
- Parlay: Patriots +115 and Under 42½ (-110) at +310
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.