The Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots reprise their rivalry for the first time this season in primetime Thursday Night Football.
Both teams featured on Thanksgiving Day’s tripleheader last Thursday but with contrasting results. The Bills (8-3-0) edged the Detroit Lions to take the narrow 28-25 victory whereas the Patriots (6-5-0) came out on the wrong side of the 33-26 shootout with the Vikings in Minnesota.
The stakes couldn’t be any higher in the AFC East. The Bills hold the top wild card while the Patriots are one game outside the AFC playoff race as the NFL enters the month of December. Going into this Week 13 contest, the Bills are favored at -190 over the Patriots at +165 on the moneyline – a market outlook that is to be expected given the Bills are the current Super Bowl favorites.
The point spread, however, has seen conspicuous movement against the Bills. After opening on -5½, the line trimmed down to Bills -3½ . Clearly, there’s an appetite for the Patriots amongst bettors as evinced by the movement on the betting online board.
Will the Bills come through on their favorable odds? Or will the Patriots throw down the gauntlet and deliver the upset?
Below, we’ve got you primed with a same-game parlay for this Week 13 TNF clash. Find out how we’re lining up our NFL picks. We’ll preview the latest news, stats, injury reports and NFL odds for the Patriots vs Vikings and serve up our verdict with NFL predictions for your consideration.
Let’s check the latest NFL odds, stats, injury reports and NFL lines for Bills vs Patriots. We’ve plenty of Vegas NFL odds for you to consider.
Scoop on Free Play from the Locker Room
Option 1: Bills vs Patriots Same-Game Parlay Odds
- First Leg: Patriots +3½ (-110)
- Second Leg: Over 43½ (-110)
Parlay Odds: +264
Option 2: Bills vs Patriots Same-Game Parlay Odds:
- First Leg: Patriots +165
- Second Leg: Over 43½ (-110)
Parlay Odds: +415
Bills vs Patriots Weather Forecast
Clear
As per the weather forecast, it’s expected to be clear throughout the day with a low of 32° F and a high of 42 ° F and a 0% chance of precipitation in Foxborough at 8:15 p.m. EST.
First Leg: Patriots +165
NFL lookahead lines projected this game on a 5½-point spread with the Bills to the good last week and bookmakers went to press with the same line when official Week 13 NFL odds and lines opened. Soon thereafter, however, early action on the Patriots began to move this line against the fancied Bills. To the point that it has now dropped by two points.
This movement seems counterintuitive given that many would agree that the Bills are legitimate Super Bowl contenders and, since the departure of Tom Brady in 2020, have dominated the Patriots in the last two seasons behind a 4-1 straight-up (SU) record that includes a 2-1 mark in 2021.
But the Bills have looked slightly vulnerable in recent weeks whereas the Patriots are starting to play better. Buffalo is 3-2 SU and 1-4-0 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games. In contrast, the Patriots are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games.
At the crux of Buffalo’s recent mixed results are costly turnovers (hi, Josh Allen) and injury concerns across the board. Allen, who appears to be playing through a nagging elbow injury, has seven interceptions in the last five games, three of which were defined by two interceptions. The Bills’ defense is also juggling some injury concerns.
One could look at the quality of opponents and opposing quarterback talent and conclude that New England’s run of positive form should be taken with a big grain of salt. Let’s face it, Jacoby Brissett, Zach Wilson (twice), Sam Ehlinger and Jared Goff aren’t in the same league as Josh Allen.
All things being considered, it comes down to the divisional rivalry angle. New England’s win in Orchard Park last season is a prime example of the unpredictable nature of these kinds of matchups. The New York Jets’ win over the Bills at MetLife this season is another such example.
Add to that the high stakes that are involved here. The Bills will be feeling the pressure to keep pace with the Dolphins at the top of the AFC East. Conversely, the Patriots will be desperate to stay relevant as they find themselves at the bottom of the AFC East despite having a winning record.
Something’s gotta give.
For those bettors that like the Patriots’ chances against the Bills in what is likely to be a charged and electric game, there are two options to consider for the same-game parlay bet.
- Option 1: Involves hedging your bets slightly with the first leg of this parlay. This is a good betting strategy if you’re on the fence about which side to back for the outright win. Grabbing the points with the Patriots will offer some wiggle room in the event of a close game that could go either way.
- Option 2: The first leg of this option for the same-game parlay involves backing the Patriots on the moneyline. This isn’t for the faint-hearted, though it promises much better bang for your buck. For those that like the Patriots’ chances overall for the outright upset at Gillette Stadium, taking them at +170 on the moneyline offers better parlay value than the point spread, which is juiced to -110, and raises the parlay odds to +415.
Most turnovers this season
Josh Allen 14*
Matt Ryan 12
Davis Mills 12*has 7 INT in last 5 games pic.twitter.com/kcvFCid5QP
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 24, 2022
Second Leg: Over 43½ (-110)
NFL Lookahead lines projected the total at 45 points last week. Markets went to press with that modest number, but, early under-betting moved this line down by two points as well. Thus, potentially opening value for the over now. Here’s why.
Arguably, the stout defending from both these teams would suggest the under is the smart bet for NFL picks here. The Bills’ D-unit is allowing merely 18.1 points per game (ppg) so far while the Patriots’ D-unit has tightened up by allowing just 14.9 ppg across their positive seven-game run.
That said, the Bills are one of the most potent teams in the league, having alternated with the Kansas City Chiefs (mainly) in the No.1 scoring offense category this season. Currently, they’re second with 28.1 ppg.
Even in the loss, Mac Jones bounced back in a big way:
28/39 Att/Comp
382 Pass Yards (career-high)
2 TD pic.twitter.com/OWPiv61Wcl— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 25, 2022
Last week, we saw Mac Jones sling the ball for more than 30 attempts and go toe-to-toe with the Vikings offense in the 33-26 loss. He might have to do the same in this game, especially if Allen and Co. go on a run or the Patriots fall behind early.
In previous installments of this matchup, four of the last five games have gone above the total that is currently trading here. The lone exception was the Patriots’ 14-10 win in Buffalo on a very wild and windy day.
Taking everything into consideration, backing the Over 43½ feels like that smart play.
