NFL Week 14 Lock of the Week – Jaguars vs Titans
Fade the Unpredictable Jags
The Tennessee Titans (7-5-0) will look to bounce back in Week 14 when they welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8-0) to Nissan Stadium on Sunday.
The Titans were laid to waste by former teammate A.J. Brown and the Philadelphia Eagles in a 35-10 loss at Lincoln Financial Field. It marked their second straight loss in as many weeks. The Jaguars are coming off a lopsided 40-14 loss to the Lions in Detroit, a week after serving up a wild, come-from-behind 28-27 win over the Baltimore Ravens.
With the Jaguars blowing hot and cold this season, it should come as no surprise to see them pegged as the conspicuous underdogs priced at +175 (bet $100 to win $175). Equally, it’s not surprising to see the AFC South-leading Titans pegged as the firm betting online favorites priced at -210 on the moneyline (bet $210 to win $100).
The point spread is another matter, where the Titans are laying merely 4 points to the Jags. This is a pretty light spread, considering the Jags are only a four-win team, wholly inconsistent, and with second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence that may or may not be 100% fit for this game.
Once again, it feels like the market isn’t giving the Titans enough respect, or it’s just overreacting to last week’s blowout in Philly. Whatever the modus operandi is, one thing is certain (well, almost): the difference in quality between these two teams is more than four points, surely, especially when you factor in home advantage for the Titans and the incentive to atone for their recent two-game skid.
We dive into this AFC South tilt between the Jaguars and Titans and offer up our analysis.
Let’s check the latest NFL odds, stats, injury reports, and NFL lines for Jaguars vs Titans. We’ve plenty of Vegas NFL odds and NFL week 14 picks for you to consider.
Jaguars vs Titans Odds
- Spread: Titans -4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Jaguars +175 | Titans -210
- Over/Under: O 41 (-110) | U 41 (-110)
From Lookaheads to Week 14 NFL Odds
Preseason NFL Lookaheads took a more favorable view of Tennessee in this matchup, projecting the Titans as the -6½-point home chalk. However, last week’s sneak peeks at the upcoming slate saw the line drop to Titans -4, and this very same line went to press on Sunday in the official Week 14 market release at the sportsbook exchange.
Interestingly, this line has held firm since then, briefly dipping below 4 points (down to Titans -3½) as early betting went towards the Jaguars.
Scoop on Free Play from the Locker Room
Jaguars Overrated?
If Lawrence isn’t 100% fit, it’s hard to see the Jaguars keeping this game close. Never mind dealing with the upset in Nashville.
Lawrence suffered a toe injury in last week’s blowout loss to the Lions. Although he finished the game, he was only able to muster up 14 points of offense.
Brutal twisted looking tackle on Trevor Lawrence.
Trevor went to the locker room.pic.twitter.com/O5IKxEprg2
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) December 4, 2022
Aside from the sophomore quarterback’s status, the Jags’ overall form is another point of contention. The Jaguars are third in the AFC South with a subpar 4-8-0 record. While they are a modest 2-2-0 SU in their last four games, the more pertinent statistic is the margin of defeat during this stretch – losing by 10 points to the Kansas City Chiefs and by 26 points to the Lions.
In fact, the Jaguars have only lost once by four points. The rest of their losses were by six points or higher. This is hardly a ringing endorsement of their odds.
Titans Undervalued
This isn’t the first time that the Titans have been undervalued. Regularly, bettors will find the Titans either undervalued or entirely snubbed by the bookmakers. And yet, they are among the more successful teams versus the spread.
The Titans are 8-4-0 against the spread (ATS) overall. They are 4-2-0 ATS when priced as the underdog and 3-2-0 ATS at home. As well, they’re 2-1-0 ATS as the home favorite with a 5.8 winning margin on average.
Nakobe Dean tackling 250-pound Derrick Henry with one arm while being held 🤯 pic.twitter.com/RJN10Pzxho
— Victor Williams (@ThePhillyPod) December 5, 2022
Sure, the Titans got knocked about in Weeks 12 and 13. But if both those losses came against two legitimate contenders – the defending AFC Champions Cincinnati Bengals and the league’s best team in 2022, the Eagles – then those losses deserve to be taken into proper context.
The long and short of it, this is a get-right game against a divisional opponent that they’ve dominated comfortably in recent seasons.
Jaguars vs Titans Betting Picks & Prediction
The Titans need this win badly if only to put the memory of the last two weeks firmly in the rearview mirror.
A banged-up Lawrence and a Jaguars team that is playing out the string of the season is the perfect bounce-back game. So, lay the points with the Titans while you can.
If you can get them on the lower 3½-point line, even better. That said, no matter the line – Titans -4 or -3½ – keep in mind that you’re getting the Titans at a much lower price than the preseason lookaheads first projected.
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.
