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NFL Week 16 Lock of the Week – Bills vs Bears

Christmas to Come Early AFC Top Seed?

The Buffalo Bills will look to sew up the AFC East title and, simultaneously, advance their bid for the AFC’s No. 1 seed in Week 16 of the NFL when they descend on the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field stadium on Christmas Eve.

The Bears (3-11-0) are already eliminated from the NFC playoff picture and they have little to play for save pride in these last few weeks of the 2022 regular season. Plus, they lack the overall talent to go toe-to-toe with arguably one of the best teams in the league.

NFL Week 16 Lock of the Week – Bills vs Bears
Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills - Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images/AFP

This glaring contrast between them is reflected at the sportsbook exchange, where the Bills (11-3-0) are installed as the runaway favorites at -400 to win outright (bet $400 to win $100), and the Bears, are the big home underdogs priced at + 320 (bet $100 to win $320).

Underscoring the mismatch even further is the point spread and total betting market, respectively, with the Bills laying +9½ points to the Bears and a 40-point total on offer.

Clearly, the Bills are expected to win this game. But will they cover the point spread as well? In short, the question is: Are they a lock bet across the board for Week 16 NFL picks?

To answer this question, let’s check the latest NFL odds, stats, injury reports, and NFL lines for Bills vs Bears. We’ve plenty of Vegas NFL odds and NFL week 16 picks for you to consider.

Bills vs Bears Odds

  • Spread: Bills -9 (Ev)
  • Moneyline: Bills -400 | Bears +320
  • Over/Under: O 40 (-110) | U 40 (-110)

Preseason Lookaheads to Week 16 NFL Odds

The Bills are 9-point favorites, moving up from a preseason lookahead line of Bills -7, but down half a point from last week’s lookahead of Bills -10.

Buffalo Bills In Pole Position

The Bills clinched their fifth straight win in Saturday Night Football, beating the Miami Dolphins 32-29 on a walk-off field goal that cemented their position at the top of the AFC East standings and kept them in front of the AFC playoff race.

The Bills are tied with the Kansas City Chiefs on an 11-3-0 record, but the Bills have the crucial head-to-head tiebreaker.

Josh Allen and Co. were down 29-21 in the fourth quarter before they started the comeback. The snow’s late arrival – in the fourth quarter to be exact – played a factor. However, it would be disingenuous to suggest it was the only factor that sparked the turnaround.

With the Bills well and truly on the ropes and facing imminent defeat, they dug in their heels. Allen was clutch, the offense rallied and the defense stepped it up when it really counted, especially by stalling Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins’ potent offense in the final 10 minutes of the game. It was a complete and thorough team effort in the end.

  • Buffalo is 6-7-1 ATS in its last 14 games
  • Buffalo is 3-3-1 ATS in its last seven road games
  • Buffalo is 2-4-0 ATS with spreads of 9½ or greater

Bears

Justin Fields carried the Bears’ offense against the Philadelphia Eagles, underscoring his merit as a building block for the future of the Chicago organization. He went 14 of 21 passing for 152 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 95 yards on 15 carries in Chicago’s 25-20 loss at home to the Eagles in Week 15.

Fields wowed and dazzled. He did everything he could. That is, short of pulling off the upset single-handedly, though the Bears covered as the +8 home underdogs.

Going into Week 16, the Bears are beaten, banged up, and visibly limping to the finish line. They’re riding a seven-game losing streak, the second-longest active run of poor form in the league after the Houston Texans’ 0-9 run, and facing a brutal schedule in the last three weeks, against three of the hottest teams right now.

Under these conditions, it’s hard to see them stem the bleeding. Moreover, Fields appeared to suffer a leg injury in last Sunday’s game, although he returned after a brief evaluation to lead a touchdown drive.

Field’s toughness, competitiveness, and commitment are beyond reproach, but with his status up in the air for this weekend, the Bears will find it hard to keep up with the Bills, never mind win outright.

Chicago Bears NFL Betting Trends

  • Chicago is 5-8-1 ATS in its last 14 games
  • Chicago is 3-3-1 ATS in its last seven home games
  • Chicago is 0-2-0 ATS with spreads of 9½ or greater.

Bills vs Bears Betting Verdict

The likely catalyst for the NFL line’s slight move against the Bills is the Bears’ heroic effort to hold the Eagles to the narrow five-point margin of victory that defied the NFL odds. It’s fair to say that the Bills’ hard-fought win over the Dolphins, in which they had to rally from behind, also played a contributing factor.

For those looking to back the Bills, getting them half a point less on the spread could prove the value play. Especially given the question marks that hang over Fields’ status for Saturday. Should the sophomore quarterback be unable to play or his mobility hindered in any way, then, frankly, it would drastically change the complexion of this matchup.

Under ideal circumstances, this would be a tough ask for Chicago even with a home advantage. Without Fields and his electric play, it’s going to be an impossible one.

The key thing to remember is that the Bills aren’t in a position to be caught unawares here. There is still the business of winning the AFC East title, and staying abreast of the chasing pack in the AFC for the No. 1 seed is another motivating factor.

All told, the Bills should come through with the win and do it in convincing fashion this week against a team that is playing out the string of the season. Lock in the Bills as the 9½-point favorites before the line

The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.

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