With three weeks left in the 2021 NFL season, it’s pretty clear what teams are at this point. The really good teams have separated themselves from the rest of the league with sustained good play just how the really bad teams are readily apparent in their own way.
But, there’s a big group of teams in the middle with six or seven or eight wins that might be legitimate contenders or just pretenders that have benefited from a weak schedule or some lucky breaks.
A lot of those six-, seven-, and eight-win teams face off in Week 16, and those games represent some great opportunities to take a slightly disfavored team straight-up for plus money. Let’s look at the NFL betting linesand pick some of the more likely upset possibilities:
Honorable Mention #1: Detroit Lions (+200) at Atlanta Falcons
For as bad as the first 12 weeks of the 2021 NFL season went for the Lions, the last three have been pretty good. Detroit got its first win of the year over the Minnesota Vikings and, two weeks later, shocked the Arizona Cardinals in a rout for the Lions’ second victory. Now, Detroit is a pretty big underdog against a mediocre Falcons team on the BetUS sportsbook. That’s a great betting opportunity for a potential big-money upset.
The Lions still aren’t good, by any means, as they have both a bottom-ten offense and defense but Jared Goff has played pretty well lately and Detroit may have found something in third-string running back Craig Reynolds who played really well last week with both D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams out.
Meanwhile, the 6-8 Falcons are getting a surprising amount of respect for being a team that has mostly only beaten bad teams and often hasn’t been particularly impressive. Atlanta’s offensive and defensive yardage numbers are similar to that of Detroit and the Falcons are coming off an ugly 31-13 loss to the San Francisco 49ers.
There is too much value on the Lions’ moneyline here to ignore for what should be a close game.
Honorable Mention #2: Miami Dolphins (+125) at New Orleans Saints
This game got shaken up a bit on Thursday when it was announced that both Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian would be put on the COVID-19/reserve list and likely won’t be able to play on Monday. That means New Orleans will likely turn to rookie Ian Book to be under center against the Dolphins though the rookie out of Notre Dame has yet to appear in a regular-season NFL game. If you’re betting online, that’s a quick sign to go with the Dolphins who have won six games in a row to climb back to .500.
Miami has mostly been winning games thanks to an athletic playmaking defense that has forced the ninth-most turnovers in the NFL and has allowed more than 17 points just one since Halloween. Tua Tagovailoa has been up-and-down but has been playing better in recent weeks, and Miami has a plethora of running back options with the resurgence of Duke Johnson.
The Saints’ rather shocking shutout of Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday showed how good New Orleans’ defense can be. However, with Book starting at quarterback, it could be difficult for the Saints to sneak across enough points to even outscore Miami.
Upset of the Week: Baltimore Ravens (+135) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Ravens have had a rough go of it since they beat the Browns in Week 12 to move to 8-3 on the season. In the weeks since star cornerback Marlon Humphrey suffered a season-ending shoulder injury, Lamar Jackson hurt his ankle, and Baltimore has lost three games in a row and suddenly the Ravens’ hold on the AFC North is tenuous at best.
Now, Baltimore is tied with the upstart Cincinnati Bengals at 8-6 with Sunday’s game in Cincinnati going a long way toward determining who will actually win the division.
The Bengals haven’t played their sharpest football as of late but are coming off a much-needed 15-10 win over the Broncos in which their defense bailed out their talented but struggling offense.
If you’re making NFL predictions, look for Baltimore to stop its slide and come up with a huge road win this weekend. Backup quarterback Tyler Huntley nearly led the Ravens to a big comeback win over the Packers and his mobility inside and outside of the pocket makes him a real dual-threat weapon.
He also has a solid arm and the Bengals are 26th in passing defense, so he (and Mike Andrews) should be able to connect early and often.
