Russell Wilson has undercooked. The Denver Broncos are one of the worst teams (if not THE worst, depending on perceptions) in the league. And, oh yeah, they fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett after their most humiliating loss of the season yet!
So, what can go wrong this week?
Well, the Broncos are massive underdogs for their date with the Kansas City Chiefs, to begin with. As we look at the latest odds currently trading at BetUS, Denver is priced at a hefty +550 to win outright (bet $100 to win $550). They’re also pegged as the 14-point road underdogs.
Historical trends suggest this is a good spot for Denver as teams that have fired their coaches in the past have enjoyed bounce-back performances – of sorts. There have been 34 head coaches fired over the last 20 years and those teams have gone 16-18-0 straight up (SU) and 18-16-0 against the spread (ATS).
Then there is the divisional element to this matchup that could tip the balance in favor of the beleaguered Broncos. Divisional games tend to be close, hard-fought contests.
That said, not every situation fits into the aforementioned narratives of fired head coaches and divisional contests. Call it a nagging feeling, but this feels like a trap bet … where the Broncos are the bait.
Read on as we preview this AFC West showdown between the Broncos and Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday and weigh in on the NFL odds. In the main, we’ll explain why this could be a trap bet for your NFL picks against the spread.
Let’s check the latest NFL odds, stats, injury reports, and NFL lines for Broncos vs Chiefs. We’ve plenty of Vegas NFL odds and NFL week 17 picks for you to consider.
Broncos vs Chiefs NFL Odds
- Spread: Chiefs -14 (+110)
- Moneyline: Broncos +550 | Chiefs -800
- Total: O 45 (-110) | U 45 (-110)
From Preseason Lookaheads to Week 17 NFL Odds
Preseason NFL lookahead lines envisioned a competitive contest between the Broncos and Chiefs, projecting their AFC West showdown on a 4½-point spread with Kansas City to the good. But things haven’t fallen in line with those rose-tinted perceptions, to put it mildly.
The current NFL line sees Kansas City pegged as the 14-point home chalk, moving up from a last week’s lookahead line of Chiefs -10 and a Sunday opening line of Chiefs -12.
Broncos Done … and Done!
Wilson’s overly hyped-up debut with the Broncos got off on the wrong foot, losing to his former team, the Seattle Seahawks. And Denver’s campaign never got back on track after that. Although not even Wilson’s most ardent critics could have predicted the depths Denver would sink to in 2022.
Last Sunday’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams marked a new nadir for the Broncos – from the embarrassing 51-14 scoreline (largely self-inflicted) to the arguments on the sidelines and everything in between – all with a national audience tuning in on Christmas Day.
Wilson threw two interceptions on back-to-back pass attempts to help the Rams get off to a 17-0 start before the first quarter ended. From there onward, the game dissolved into chaos, tantrums, meltdowns, blown coverages, miscues, sloppiness and lots more anger.
It was the worst defeat of Wilson’s career. But wait! Hackett got the sack the day after. Wilson reacted by lamenting the fact he didn’t play well enough for the first-year head coach. “I wish I could have played better for him,” said Wilson following Wednesday’s practice.
Russell Wilson went from a star in the NFL to being roasted by Patrick Star on a Nickelodeon broadcast.
That’s when you know you’ve hit rock bottom.pic.twitter.com/eSccy9jinM
— Mike Motherfucking White Fanpage (@UrinatingTree) December 25, 2022
Denver Broncos NFL Betting Trends
- Denver is 6-9-0 ATS in its last 15 games with a 4.8 losing margin on average
- Denver is 1-7-0 SU in its last 8 road games with a 10.1 losing margin on average
- Denver is 2-5-0 ATS in its last 8 road games with a 10.1 losing margin on average
- Deniver is 2-2-0 ATS in its last 4 away games as a road underdog with a 5.0 losing margin on average
Chiefs Aiming High
The Chiefs are coming off one of their most convincing performances at home, beating the Seattle Seahawks 24-10 to cover as the double-digit favorites. Insofar as Patrick Mahomes was superb, it was Kansas City’s defense that really showed up on the day. They thwarted Geno Smith and a pretty potent Seahawks offense, holding them to just a couple of scores.
Now, a lot is being made about the fact that Kansas City covered a spread of 10 points or higher for the first time this season. Almost to the point of overlooking the fact that they’re rounding into fantastic form right now. Besides, winning is winning. At the end of the day, it’s all that matters, even if it is winning ugly.
Case in point: The Chiefs raced to the 27-0 lead over the Broncos when they last met at Mile High before settling on a much narrower 34-28 win. Mahomes wasn’t his usual sharp self, throwing two interceptions, helping to give Denver the leg up. But when push came to shove, they got the job done.
Patrick Mahomes is a superhero! 💪 pic.twitter.com/sWAkJlxAz7
— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) December 24, 2022
Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Trends
- Kansas City is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games with a 7.1 winning margin on average
- Kansas City is 6-1-0 SU in its last 7 home games with a 6.1 winning margin on average
- Kansas City is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 home games with a 6.1 winning margin on average
- Kansas City is 2-3-0 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite with a 7.8 winning margin on average.
Broncos vs Chiefs Betting Picks & Prediction
This is a game between the worst (OK, one of the worst) teams in the NFL and the best (surely, we can all agree on that score?) team, full stop. Thus, it’s really not surprising at all to see the market skewed heavily toward the latter in this game.
A lot is riding on the outcome of Week 17 for the Chiefs. They are second in the AFC standings, tied with the Bills on a 12-3-0 record. (Buffalo owns the tiebreaker, thanks to a win at Arrowhead Stadium earlier this season).
The only scenario that will see the Chiefs move in front is if they win out and the Bills stumble along the way. Kansas City has a winnable game while Buffalo’s date with Cincinnati on Monday night is a potential stumbling block this week [insert dramatic shiver].
In a nutshell, the Chiefs are going places while the Broncos are packing up and hitting the golf course (if they haven’t already). The form book applies, and it should not only dictate the winner of this game but see them come through as the hefty double-digit favorites, too.
Granted, it’s impossible to know for certain what to expect from Wilson as he prepares for his second meeting with the Chiefs this weekend. But by his own admission, he’s not playing well. Moreover, if the players are so disillusioned with everything that has happened (rumor has it there’s locker room disenchantment with Wilson), they might not even bother showing up.
Thus, the only trap here is to get sucked in by all those points with Denver, as if the Broncos will all of a sudden be the team much first thought they’d be and give Mahomes and Co. a run for their money at Arrowhead Stadium on New Year’s Day.
Believe it when it happens …
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.