Every so often, an underdog that is just too good to ignore pops up. That’s the case this week with the Cincinnati Bengals in their highly anticipated AFC clash on Monday Night Football with the Buffalo Bills.
The Bengals are the hottest team in the NFL right now, second to none on form, as they go into Week 17 of the NFL riding a seven-game winning streak. And yet, they’re – wait for it – being tipped as the conspicuous underdogs across the NFL odds board.
Cincinnati is priced at Even odds to win outright and catch a point at home to Buffalo. Granted, they’re not at a huge disadvantage. But they’re still in underdog territory for this game. In other words, they’re being snubbed.
Does the market have it right? Or are they overvaluing the Bills at the expense of the Bengals?
Let’s check the latest NFL odds, stats, injury reports, and NFL lines for Bills vs Bengals. We’ve plenty of Vegas NFL odds and NFL week 17 picks for you to consider.
Bills vs Bengals Odds
- Spread: Bills -1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Bills -120 | Bengals +100
- Over/Under: 49½
From Lookaheads to NFL Week 17 Odds
The Bills are 1-point favorites as we look at the latest betting online odds trading at BetUS. This marks a move up from a preseason lookahead of a pick’em line but, at the same time, a drop from Sunday’s official opening line of -2½. Clearly, the markets liked Buffalo’s chances in this game, but the public felt otherwise as early betting came down hard and heavy on the hosts.
Bills Lose Edge
The Bills burst out of the gates and roughed up the defending Super Bowl champions, Los Angeles Rams, in Week 1 before going on a tear from then onwards in the first half of the season.
It hasn’t all been smooth sailing, but the Bills are in a great position, nevertheless. You could say they’re exactly where they want to be and where many – bookmakers included – expected they’d be with the season homing in on the playoffs.
Buffalo sits atop the AFC leaderboard with a 12-3-0 record and is in pole position for the No. 1 seed. The Kansas City Chiefs are tied with the Bills, but they drop into second place because of a tiebreaker. So long as the Bills win, they’ll have a home advantage throughout the playoffs.
“It’s unique. It’s for Buffalo.”@JoshAllenQB knows exactly what he’s going to say in his victory speech (and what he’s gonna drink) if the Bills hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
🔗: https://t.co/sKyZTeOmO3 pic.twitter.com/T4V7hM5o2n
— Kyle Brandt’s Basement (@KBBasement) December 27, 2022
The recent form is nothing to sneeze at, either. Josh Allen and Co. are riding a six-game winning streak into Week 17 and are 7-2-0 straight up (SU) since Week 8. Most recently, the Bills defeated the Chicago Bears 35-13 at Soldier Field, covering as the closing 8-point road favorites.
However, if we’re going to nitpick here, it’s worth noting that the Bills have only gone 3-6-0 against the spread (ATS) since Week 8.
Josh Allen is having another solid season, ranking third overall with 4,029 passing yards, 32 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. If there’s one knockback against Allen, it’s his turnovers that have a tendency to come at crucial junctures in a game.
Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Trends:
- Buffalo is 7-7-1 ATS in its last 15 games with a 10.7 winning margin on average
- Buffalo is 6-2-0 SU in its last eight games on the road with a 7.8 winning margin on average
- Buffalo is 4-3-1 ATS in its last eight games on the road with a 7.8 winning margin on average
- Buffalo is 4-3-1 ATS as an away favorite with a 7.8 winning margin on average
Bengals Red Hot
Joe Burrow and the Bengals are starting to look like the team that won the AFC Championship and very nearly won Super Bowl 57 last season. And that’s a worrying sign if there ever was one for the entire AFC field headed into the postseason.
They’ve reeled off seven straight wins, including a statement win over the Kansas City Chiefs at home and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road. Most recently, the Bengals defeated the New England Patriots 22-18 on the road to cover as the 3-point favorites.
Importantly, the Bengals are 7-0-0 SU and ATS during this run of form, covering spreads that ranged from +2 ½ all the way up to -7 in succession.
Overall, the Bengals are a league-best 12-3-0 ATS with an average 5.7 winning margin. A big reason for their success is stellar quarterbacking from Burrow.
AFC Players of the Week! (Week 16)@JoeyB | @CamHeyward pic.twitter.com/sfKfSFT4Zb
— NFL (@NFL) December 28, 2022
The third-year signal-caller has passed for 17 touchdowns to six interceptions during Cincy’s 7-0 run, all while putting up whopping 1,931 passing yards (275.9 per game). For the season, Burrow ranks second among passers with 4,260 passing yards and 34 touchdowns to 12 interceptions.
Cincinnati Bengals NFL Betting Trends:
- Cincinnati is 12-3-0 ATS in its last 15 games with a 5.7 winning margin on average
- Cincinnati is 5-1-0 SU at home this season with a 10.7 winning margin on average
- Cincinnati is 5-1-0 ATS at home this season with a 10.7 winning margin on average
- Cincinnati is 1-0-0 SU and ATS as a home underdog this season with a 3.0 winning margin on average
Bills vs Bengals Betting Picks & Prediction
This is a total toss-up between two legitimate Super Bowl contenders. It wouldn’t take much to present a credible case for either one of these teams to triumph on Monday night. The Bills could certainly come through as the notional favorites. So, too, the Bengals as the teeny, weeny home dogs.
The layers of this game are on another level. This is a pivotal game for the Bills in the broader spectrum of the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. It’s also a must-win game for Cincinnati in its bid to wrap up the AFC North title. Thus, a loss for either team is likely to have far-reaching consequences.
On an individual level, the MVP race is also on the line, with Allen and Burrow having a stake in it. A loss here could eliminate one or the other from consideration in the eyes of the voting media.
The pressure is exorbitant on both camps. But if push comes to shove, the Bengals at home will be a tough ask for the Bills. Don’t be surprised if Cincy defies the odds and comes through with the outright upset here.
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.