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NFL Week 18 Overs of the Week: Divisional Shootouts
One of the best things about the NFL’s scheduling is that the final week of the season — this season, Week 18 for the first time — is filled with divisional matchups as the last couple of playoff entrants are determined and (most) divisional races are officially decided.
It makes for a great regular-season finale in which hated rivals match up.
There are a bunch of good options for games in which to bet the over on the slate, some featuring one team desperately needing a win to clinch a playoff berth or improve their positioning.
One team out of the playoff mix wanting to deal a big blow to a divisional foe, while others involve teams jockeying for better seeding. Let’s take a look at some promising candidates for Overs of the Week based on the current NFL point spreads:
NFL Week 18 Overs of the Week
Second Runner-Up: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
When: Sunday, January 9 (4:25 p.m. ET)
Total: 41 Points
The Bills control their playoff destiny as they can clinch the AFC East with a win over the four-win Jets on Sunday. Buffalo is tied with the New England Patriots but its superior in-division record gives it the tiebreaker so the Bills will really want to get out to a quick start and remove all doubt.
Luckily for them, New York is dead-last in the NFL in both scoring defense and yards from scrimmage allowed, so Josh Allen & Co. should put up a ton of points.
The over is a middle-of-the-pack 41 points which is a total that Buffalo eclipsed on its own the last time the Bills played the Jets, back in Week 10, so it’s a smart play if you’re making NFL predictions.
The Bills beat New York 45-17 behind nearly 500 yards of offense and there’s no reason to think Buffalo won’t be able to score with ease once again. The Jets are banged-up defensively and rely on a ton of first- and second-year players, especially in the secondary.
On the other side, the Jets’ offense has steadily improved throughout the season and Zach Wilson is coming off an impressive showing in a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. The Jets blew a late lead but Wilson was firing darts all over the fields and New York’s patchwork ground game did really well against an elite Tampa Bay rushing defense. There are signs of life for the young Jets’ offense which should help out the over.
Pick: Over 41 Points
First Runner-Up: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
When: Sunday, January 9 (1 p.m. ET)
Total: 43 Points
The Titans have already clinched the AFC South title but, with the same record as the Kansas City Chiefs, still have a big incentive to win so they can potentially have the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. Of course, the Texans have long been out of playoff contention but they’ve been playing much better as of late — 2-1 in their last three games.
The big news for the Titans is that star running back Derrick Henry has been designated to return from injured reserve and is back at practice. He isn’t definitely going to play this weekend but just the potential for their franchise cornerstone’s return is sure to give Tennessee a massive boost against Houston regardless of whether he plays or not. The Titans’ backup running backs options have fared well in his absence and Tennessee hasn’t missed a beat.
It helps that Houston is 26th in scoring defense and dead-last in rushing yards allowed, 29th in rushing yards allowed per carry, and second to last in rushing touchdowns allowed. Plus, Houston’s rookie quarterback Davis Mills has looked a lot better during the Texans’ resurgence, which bodes well for the over if you’re betting online.
Pick: Over 43 Points
Over of the Week: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
When: Sunday, January 9 (4:25 p.m. ET)
Total: 44½ Points
This matchup is critical for the NFC West race and the NFC playoff picture overall. With a win, the Rams would clinch the division and could upend the Green Bay Packers at the top of the conference while, with a loss, the 49ers could miss the playoffs entirely.
LA’s offense has struggled as of late with Matthew Stafford throwing a bunch of picks after starting the year on fire, but the Rams are still loaded with talent and are a top-10 offense (a top-five passing offense). The 49ers don’t get their points in as flashy a way as the Rams do but they’re also a really strong offense, particularly on the ground with Elijah Mitchell (and now Deebo Samuel).
The 44½ point total on the BetUS Sportsbook seems high but, for these teams in this matchup, it might be a bit low. Los Angeles’ defense isn’t as elite as it has been in recent years while San Francisco’s is really banged-up and middle-of-the-pack in terms of points allowed. Also, Trey Lance impressed in his fill-in start for Jimmy Garoppolo last week and his athletic ability opens things up a lot more for Kyle Shanahan.
