NFL Week 2 Picks: Bet Bills to Beat Dolphins 9/12
- Thursday Night Football showcases an AFC East matchup between Miami and Buffalo
- The Bills are slight underdogs despite consistently winning against the Dolphins
- Our NFL expert sides with the underdog and goes against BetUS sportsbook’s total
The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins rekindle their rivalry on Thursday Night Football. Interestingly, the NFL odds favor the latter as the home team but not by much. Miami opened as a 1½-point favorite, which has been bet down to just one point.
Buffalo has won 11 of its last 12 games against Miami thanks mainly to quarterback Josh Allen. But a few factors may make this a more interesting game as we uncover the best bets to make.
Touchdown Profits! Bet $200, Get $450 Bonus on first time deposit.
Bills vs Dolphins Game Information
- Game: Bills (1-0) vs Dolphins (1-0)
- Date/Time: Thursday, Sept. 12, 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
- Bills vs Dolphins Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
Bills vs Dolphins Odds and Spreads
2 Top TNF Picks for Bills vs Dolphins
1. Tanking Totals
We can see why the NFL betting lines reflect one of the highest-scoring games here. Buffalo has run roughshod over Miami and averaged nearly 34 points and 433 yards in their last 10 meetings. Josh Allen has lit up the Dolphins and is making NFL history. But we’re betting against the scoring here.
Josh Allen is 10-2 and has averaged 280.3 pass YPG (33 TD, 7 INT) and 53.2 rush YPG (5 TD) against the Dolphins in his career.
He is the only player to average 250+ pass YPG and 50+ rush YPG vs a single opponent since at least 1950 (min. 5 starts).
Bills @NFLPlus
— Tony Holzman-Escareno (@FrontOfficeNFL) September 9, 2024
First, Allen hurt his hand against Arizona in Week 1 The injury could be minor and he is cleared to play on Thursday. But it could also impact how he plays. Second, it’s a short week and it’s less time for game-planning and healing for injured players. Third, the Dolphins’ defense looks to be significantly improved under coordinator Anthony Weaver.
They held the Jaguars scoreless in the second half and stopped eight of Jacksonville’s third-down conversions. And last, but not least, is the weather. We are seeing forecasts of rain with a potential for a thunderstorm on Thursday so we could see slippery and wet conditions for ‘TNF’. This may impact a more “traditional” style of play-calling, even for a savant like Mike McDaniel.
Under rainy conditions, players may slip or have a harder time holding or catching the ball. This can lead to more fumbles, turnovers and fewer pass completions. This helps defenses more, and given how we already have two teams with prolific rushing attacks, we may see a lot of yards but few points.
Buffalo only scored 21 and 19 points in its last two trips to Miami. But it also put up 473 and 497 yards, respectively. Likewise, Miami totaled 400 yards against Jacksonville but scored just 20 points. Given the high total at 49, we are betting against it.
NFL Pick: Bills vs Dolphins Under 49 (-110)
2. Back the Dog in Low-Scoring Game
In a game where scoring can be few and far between, go for the underdog. That’s Buffalo at even money on the online betting spread (+1) or +110 on the moneyline. We’ll go for the straight-up win coming from a team with a strong history of beating Miami. While both teams rallied to win their opening games, only one team has Josh Allen. That’s Buffalo.
“It’s hard to win,” Bills head coach Sean McDermott said following the Arizona game. “It doesn’t really matter – who you play, where you play, it’s how you play, how we play.”
We picked against Buffalo as wide favorites last week. But we’d gladly take the Bills as an underdog against a Dolphins team that struggled to beat winning teams last season: They were only 1-6 straight-up.
While Miami did impress in a gutsy win against Jacksonville, we’re also talking about an opponent that went 1-5 to end 2023, with its only win against Carolina (who are still abysmal). Fair play, Jacksonville was banged up. But the Jaguars also lost key offensive players and have the same staff. It’s hard to see how this team improved.
Buffalo, despite losing plenty of key players as well, still has Allen and James Cook at running back. Allen posted a 137.7 passer rating versus Arizona and had four total TDs. Cook also had 103 yards from scrimmage.
The Bills have gone 6-1 in its last seven AFC games and are also 4-1 in their last five games in Miami. Despite losing 21-19 the last time, Buffalo had Miami on the ropes to end the game. As long as Allen and McDermott are running the show, they are our NFL picks against Miami.
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
Take A Look At These Other 2 NFL Special Articles
Questions of the Day
Who is favored to win between Miami and Buffalo?
Miami is a 1-point favorite against Buffalo on the BetUS sportsbook
What was Miami’s home record in 2023?
Miami went 7-2 at home in 2023. One of its losses came against Buffalo in what decided the AFC East champion.
