A dizzying set of NFL games fill Week 3. Finding a pair of matchups to please per their NFL betting lines was a tough ask, but we simplified it: bet against the goats (the worst team) in the NFL and bet for the GOAT, the best player.
NFL Week 3: Two-Way 3-Point Pleaser
New York Jets (0-2) at Denver Broncos (2-0)
When: Sun, Sep. 26 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Point Spread: Broncos -10½ (-110)
We start off with the “easy” NFL prediction here: this week’s biggest favorite, the Denver Broncos. Things can’t seem to be easier for the unbeaten team hosting the hapless and winless Jets at the Mile High. Butt-whoopings aren’t that easy in the NFL and Denver only went 4-4 against the spread (ATS) at home last year.
So it behooves the Jets to put up a fight here. Can they do it? For one, the Jets will need to be better at manufacturing some offense. They have been so awful that they are trending on social media for the wrong reasons.
Quarterback Zach Wilson has been sacked 10 times, thrown five picks, and is last in the NFL in passer rating at 54.1. It’s only up from here right? Not when he’s against one of the NFL’s premier defenses. Denver is allowing the fifth-fewest yards per game at 4.61 and the shortest time on the field at just 23 minutes.
The Jets very well may have faced/facing 3 of the 5 best defenses in football for Zach Wilson’s first 3 starts.
— Will Parkinson (@Willpa11) September 24, 2021
Maybe the Jets’ offensive line plays better and Wilson becomes half as amazing as Aaron Rodgers so the Jets can go over their 10-point average. There is still the other side of the ball: stopping the Broncos.
Denver is averaging 25 points a game, which is 12th in the NFL. The team is also rushing for over 130 yards, fifth-most. And QB Teddy Bridgewater is sixth in the NFL with a 120.7 passer rating. Say what you will about Bridgewater, but he has been reliable against teams he’s supposed to beat.
Either way you cut it, the Jets have to overachieve on both sides of the ball. If they falter on one side, Denver will be glad to take over. At 10.5 points, we might as well please it by three and see Denver win by two scores.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) at Los Angeles Rams (2-0)
When: Sun, Sep. 26 (4:25 p.m. ET)
Point Spread: Buccaneers -1 (-120)
Never bet against Tom Brady. The online sports betting odds initially opened with his Buccaneers as the underdogs. That’s right. The defending Super Bowl champions were the dogs against the home team Rams. That line flipped for obvious reasons and we’ll go a step further by pleasing it with an extra three points.
Tampa will then have to win by four or more points, which can be tricky as a last-second field goal won’t cut it. Margin of victories at three points or fewer occurred 23% of the time from 2015 to 2019. But of Tampa’s 15 wins last season, only two were by four points or fewer.
But beating the Rams by four or more points would be a tall task. In seven losses last year, the Rams only lost by four or more points four times. This was the NFL’s top defensive team and now has QB Matthew Stafford leading the offense.
Tampa Bay’s defense has been atrocious this season allowing the fifth-most points and the third-most passing yards. Still, the Bucs have not lost since Week 12 last season and the team that lost 27-24 to the Rams is a different one.
Brady has nine touchdowns, the most he’s had in his first two games and the Bucs are used to playing in hostile environments. They start hot: averaging 21 points by halftime in their last four games.
You can bet online against any other team. Just not against a determined Tom Brady.