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NFL Week 5 Best ATS Bets

Eagles Take First Defeat, Rams & Bucs Rebound, Steelers Upset Bills

We’re diving into a jam-packed NFL Week 5 slate, serving up previews and predictions for the entire week, beginning with Thursday Night Football between the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos and ending on Monday Night Football between the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs.

Which favorites will come through with the win and/or cover? Which underdogs will punch above their weight class? Will there be an upset? These and more are just some of the questions we cover below.

NFL Week 5 Best ATS Bets
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Let’s check the latest NFL picks, stats, injury reports, and NFL predictions. We’ve plenty of NFL expert picks for you to consider.

Week 5 Best ATS Bets

Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime

Laying a field goal with a Broncos team that’s struggling on offense, lost RB Javonte Williams (knee) for the season, and suffered a brutal 32-23 loss in Week 4 to the previously winless Raiders feels like a big risk to take with little guarantee of a reward. Then again, they’re facing the Colts. The Colts’ offense is a total yawn, Matt Ryan looks tired and John Taylor (ankle) is questionable for this Thursday Night Football (TNF) tilt.

Picks: Broncos to win and cover -3

New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers (London)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network

The Packers gutted out a 27-24 OT win against a Patriots team led by third-string quarterback Bailey Zappe. The optics weren’t great, though the Packers got the job done. The Giants are surprisingly 3-1 SU. However, with wins over the hapless Panthers and Bears and a lucky win against the Titans in Week 1, there’s a massive grain of salt in there – somewhere. This is the first test of a Giants offense that appears centered around one player, Saquon Barkley. Add a questionable quarterback situation – Daniel Jones (ankle) and Tyrod Taylor (concussion) – and the odds quite rightly are stacking up against the Giants.

Picks: Packers to win and cover -9½

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Although the much anticipated Kenny Pickett era is officially here, the rookie is getting no favors in his first NFL start with a tough ask in Buffalo. And the markets agree, tipping the Steelers as +14 road underdogs. The rookie’s debut midway through the Jets game last week was mixed, highlighted by three interceptions and two rushing scores. What Pickett brings to the table are his intangibles. He’s fearless and can make the big plays. It’s a big ask, but the upset is worth the tickle for NFL picks against the spread if not the outright upset too. It’s a longshot though, so don’t go betting the farm on it.

Picks: Steelers (+650) to win and cover +14

Los Angeles Chargers vs Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Justin Herbert might have some bruised rib cartilage, but his performance hasn’t suffered from it. He passed for 340 yards and two touchdowns in the Chargers’ 34-24 win over the Texans last week. The hit-and-miss Browns were upset by the Falcons 23-20 last week, in a game where they missed Myles Garrett. If Garrett misses a second straight game, Herbert and the Chargers could have a field day.

Picks: Chargers win and cover -3

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

This is a good spot for the Vikings to string together consecutive wins after beating the Saints 28-25 in London last weekend. The Bears are possibly the worst team in the NFL. Justin Fields is struggling, the offense is uninspired, and the defense is so-so.

Picks: Vikings to win and cover -7½

NFL Week 5 Best ATS Bets
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Detroit Lions vs New England Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

With the Lions’ top-scoring offense and the worst-scoring defense, what could go wrong for Week 5 NFL picks? The Lions conceded 48 points to the Seahawks and, simultaneously, made Geno Smith look like a demi-god at quarterback! The Patriots have quarterback question marks ahead of this game, but they could field either Mac Jones, Bailey Zappa, or the waterboy and still feel good about winning.

Picks: Patriots to win, Lions to cover +3

Seattle Seahawks vs New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Geno Smith is holding his own in an offense that has an enviable supporting cast, as the Seahawks are locked in a four-way tie with the Niners, Rams, and Cardinals at 2-2 SU in the NFC West. Right about now, Pete Carroll looks like a genius. Let’s see how long that lasts, though. Injuries derailed the Saints in September. And they’re coming off a heart-breaking 28-25 loss to the Vikings in London. All things being equal, this could be a get-right spot for the hosts, especially if Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas return to the lineup.

Picks: Saints to win and Seahawks to cover +5½

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Tua Tagovailoa is in concussion protocol, the medic that cleared him to play last week was fired and Teddy Bridgewater will get his first start with the Dolphins in 2022 in Week 5. Quite the week for Miami, who are coming off their first setback – a 27-15 loss to the Bengals in TNF. On the flip side, the Jets are flush off a come-from-behind 24-20 win over the Steelers on the road, in a game that marked Zach Wilson’s debut this season. The Dolphins have the better team overall, but the improved Jets have Wilson back, and they’ll be motivated to capitalize on Miami’s misfortune with their first home win of the season.

Picks: NYJ (+145) to win and cover +3

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

This is a much-needed get-right game for the Buccaneers, who are on a two-game slide going into Week 5. The improved Falcons won’t be a cakewalk. But the Bucs will fancy their chances after their best offensive performance of the season, albeit in a 41-31 loss to the Chiefs.

Picks: Buccaneers to win and cover -9½

NFL Week 5 Best ATS Bets
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Tennessee Titans vs Washington Commanders

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Titans are coasting under the radar again, quietly going about their business as they improve to a 2-2 SU record. They’re coming off a big divisional win against the Colts that saw Derrick Henry light up for 114 yards and a touchdown to help his side to the 24-17 win. By contrast, the Commanders offense has gone walkabout in the last two weeks, and Wentz has been sacked 17 times this season. After starting the year with a win over the Jaguars, the Commanders have lost three on the trot.

Picks: Titans to win and cover -2½

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS

The Texans are playing hard for Lovie Smith, but they only have a tie to show for their efforts in three weeks. Before the season started, this would have been a toss-up for NFL picks. Now, with the season four weeks deep, the 2-2 SU Jaguars are better than most would have predicted they’d be in Doug Pederson’s first season. By all accounts, the Jaguars should win, but the Texans could cover.

Picks: Jaguars to win, Texans to cover +7

San Francisco 49ers vs Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

The Niners bounced back impressively in Monday Night Football to clinch the 24-9 win. Jimmy Garoppolo played a good game, but the Niner’s defense stole the show, simultaneously steamrolling Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ offense. If that’s what they can do against the Super Bowl champs, one shudders to think what they’ll do to Baker Mayfield and the Panthers. This could get ugly for the hosts.

Picks: Niners to win and cover -6½

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

The narrative surrounding this game is all about Dallas’ quarterback situation, especially the potential of Dak Prescott’s return. But imagine the chatter if Prescott starts and the Cowboys go on to lose! The truth is the Cowboys’ defense deserves all the credit for winning up to this point. That same defense is likely to decide this game unless the Rams somehow sort themselves out before Sunday and find a way to get back on track.

Picks: Rams to win, Cowboys to cover +4½

NFL Week 5 Best ATS Bets
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Philadelphia Eagles vs Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

The Eagles are undefeated thanks to facing a bunch of bottom-of-the-barrel defenses. This is their first real test against one of last year’s playoff teams. The Cardinals aren’t playing their best game yet, but this is the kind of challenge Kyler Murray and Co. will relish.

Picks: Cardinals to win and cover +5

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

Lamar Jackson is playing well, but the Ravens are struggling to close out games convincingly. The Bengals got off to a slow start, but they seem to have found their groove now. This is a coin toss for NFL picks, but push comes to shove, the Bengals for the upset in this AFC North showdown holds value.

Picks: Bengals to win and cover +3

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Raiders avoided the dreaded 0-4 hole with a much-needed win over the Denver Broncos last weekend. But a matchup against the six-time defending AFC West champion Kansas City Chiefs is another level.

Picks: Chiefs to win and cover -7

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