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NFL Week 5 Under of the Week: Turn Garbage Into Gold

We cashed last week’s Under of the Week, which featured the New England Patriots and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Just like we’re fond of the Raiders for overs, the Pats are showing they are quite the force when it comes to going under the total.

Whoops, we just spoiled this week’s pick. But we pick two more games, both of which can get just as painful as the Patriots’ matchup this week going by Las Vegas’ NFL odds alone.

NFL Week 5 Under of the Week: Turn Garbage Into Gold
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images/AFP

NFL Week 5 Unders: Three Ugly Games, One Can Cash

Second Runner-up: New York Jets (1-3) vs Atlanta Falcons (1-3)

When: Sunday (9:30 a.m. ET)

Total: Under 46 (-110)

We’d love to see a shootout. It could if quarterbacks Zach Wilson of the Jets and Matt Ryan of the Falcons get their way. They will need some solid blocking (good luck with that) and some sleeping defenses. Maybe the jetlag will catch up and allow these two to do business.

But a bet online on this game to be a hot mess is justified as well. The Jets are scoring the fewest points in the NFL while the Falcons have averaged 11.5 points against decent defenses. Still, this is a second runner-up as the Falcons’ defense is so bad it could make Wilson look like a superstar.

The under may have hit in six of the Jets’ last eight games, but all of those opponents were not as bad as the Falcons are on defense. This historically bad defense will get lit up here as Wilson has proven he can put points on the board when he has time and space.

An added incentive: WR Calvin Ridley is not making the trip to London and WR Russell Gage is out, too.

First Runner-Up: Denver Broncos (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)

When: Sunday (1 p.m. ET)

Total: Under 39½ (-110)

With inept offenses, the Broncos and Steelers will be a pain to watch but a lucrative opportunity for online gambling. Broncos quarterback Drew Lock already looked miserable filling in for the injured Teddy Bridgewater last week. He threw a pick and the Broncos’ offense punted more times than it had first downs.

The Steelers didn’t do any better against Green Bay. QB Ben Roethlisberger was also hard to watch as the team failed to hit the 20-point mark for the third straight time. Their defense is still functional, hence why four of their last five games have gone under the total.

But as much as we’d like to lock this in as our Under of the Week, 39.5 points is not a lot. After all, we have two aggressive defenses here who could generate some points via turnovers and the running backs can score. Lock and Roethlisberger may just throw three picks combined and both teams can stumble into pay dirt.

Under of the Week: New England Patriots (1-3) at Houston Texans (1-3)

When: Sunday (1 p.m. ET)

Total: Under 39½ (-110)

We raise the Steelers-Broncos game with a Patriots-Texans “banger.” Tied with that game for the lowest total of the week, all six of these teams’ games under a rookie quarterback, Mac Jones, and Davis Mills, respectively, have gone under.

The Patriots and Texans are scoring the fifth- and fourth-fewest points in the NFL and that isn’t going to get any better any time soon. Jones has a 70% completion rate but he’s thrown as many picks as he has touchdowns: four while Mills equaled these interceptions with just one game against Buffalo.

New England has also allowed the sixth-fewest points and held the potent Buccaneers offense to just 19 points, the fewest they’ve scored since Week 9 last season. We’ve envisioned plenty of scenarios here but just can’t fathom how this one goes over its total. So for Week 5, this will be our NFL prediction as the Under of the Week.

Pick: Patriots-Texans – Under 39.5 (-110)

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