NFL Week 6 is just around the corner. As a reaction to the previous week takes hold and starts to influence betting, it seeps into the market, forcing lines to move in various directions.
In this column, we’re tracking market moves for your NFL picks against the spread. This involves highlighting games that you should hurry up and bet on now before the lines move or those that you should probably wait on and bet on later in the week.
So, with Week 6 NFL odds and lines already in full swing, let’s get started
Week 6 NFL Odds & Lines
Bet Now: Jets (+7½) vs Packers
The New York Jets are riding high following a 40-17 win over the banged-up Miami Dolphins. The win marked an upset by the Jets (+3) and saw them improve to 3-2-0 ATS. It also marked their second straight cover with quarterback Zach Wilson at the helm after the second-year signal caller rallied his side to the come-from-behind, 24-20 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4.
— New York Jets (@nyjets) October 9, 2022
The Green Bay Packers are coming off a shocking upset by the New York Giants in London, losing 27-22 as the whopping -8½ favorites. It was the second straight week that saw the Packers fail to cover a spread greater than a touchdown – Green Bay beat the New England Patriots 27-24 in overtime but failed to cover as the -9½ home chalk. Overall, the Packers are 2-3-0 ATS.
Lookahead NFL betting lines projected the Packers as the 10-point favorites for this game. But after Sunday’s round of the NFL, markets reopened with the Packers as a touchdown favorite (or thereabouts).
As this currently stands, the line at BetUS sportsbook sits at 7½ points. With the public down on the Packers, this line could potentially dwindle to a touchdown or lower before kickoff. Grab the half-point hook with the Jets before the value is lost with them.
Bet Later: Panthers vs Rams (-11)
Lookahead NFL markets projected the Los Angeles Rams as the -9½ favorites against the Carolina Panthers. Following Sunday’s round of betting, however, the Rams reopened as double-digit favorites, jumping out to -11 despite suffering a brutal 22-10 loss to the Dallas Cowboys at SoFi Stadium.
The Rams are off to one of the worst starts in recent memory by a defending Super Bowl champion. Nothing about them (right now) screams that they are worth 11 points on the spread. The offensive line is a mess, Matthew Stafford is wholly off color and form, and generating offense appears to be limited to Cooper Kupp alone.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 10, 2022
Having said that, this NFL line move has more to do with the turmoil in Carolina than anything else. The Panthers fired head coach Matt Rhule on Monday after putting together a woeful 1-4 SU start this season. He’s replaced by interim head coach Sam Wilks. In addition, Baker Mayfield suffered a high ankle sprain, meaning that P.J. Walker will likely make his first start for the Panthers in Week 6.
There is so much unpredictability and uncertainty about this matchup from both sides that waiting to see where this line settles before kickoff might be the smart play for NFL picks against the spread. It really could go in any direction and that will impact the value.
Bet Now: Broncos vs Chargers (-5½)
The Denver Broncos are a hot mess, inside a dumpster fire, inside a train wreck. Nothing was more telling than the fact that Broncos’ fans couldn’t find the exits fast enough just as overtime was starting in Thursday’s clash with the Indianapolis Colts at Mile High.
The Broncos are 1-4-0 ATS after five weeks and riding a two-game losing streak. Lookahead lines projected the Broncos as the +4½ road underdogs for this divisional tilt. However, in light of recent results, the markets reopened with a higher point spread of six points.
As it is, BetUS nestles this game on a 5½-point line with the Los Angeles Chargers to the good. The Chargers are riding a two-game winning streak, covering closing spreads of -5½ and -1½ during this run of positive form. Grab the Chargers as -5½ home favorites before the line goes back up to six or higher.
Bet Later: Bills vs Chiefs (+1)
All eyes will be on this AFC bout between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs – arguably the two best teams in the league at this point in time. By all accounts, this could be the most bet game by the close of this week.
Predictably, markets opened this game on a PK line – essentially asking the public to temper the market. And early betting has shown its hand already.
It appears that bettors are high on the Bills, who are the current Super Bowl favorites. In fact, some shops are showing the Bills at -2 already. This early betting online trend must be a bit of a knee-jerk reaction to the Bills’ lopsided 38-3 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.
— NFL (@NFL) October 10, 2022
It’s worth noting that the Chiefs are yet to play their divisional rivals Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football – the outcome of which is sure to have further impact on the betting lines.
The Chiefs are 2-2-0 ATS ahead of MNF and they’re currently tipped as a touchdown favorite over the Raiders.
What happens in MNF is going to be impactful. As such, it might be best to wait and see what happens and what the reaction or fallout (depending on the outcome) might be before placing your sports bets.