The Houston Texans welcome the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles to NRG Stadium on Thursday night for a prime-time clash that will kick off Week 9. But with the markets skewed wholeheartedly in favor of the NFC East juggernaut, the hosts will have all to do everything to make their presence felt, never mind anything else.
The Eagles are installed as the staggering -760 favorites on the Moneyline while the Texans are nothing more than an afterthought at +560 in this market. In point-spread betting, the Eagles are pegged as two-touchdown favorites (-14) while the total is projected to be a modest 45 points.
Find out how we’re approaching this Thursday Night Football to tilt for our same-game parlay below. Let’s check the latest NFL odds, stats, injury reports, and NFL lines for Eagles vs Texans. We’ve plenty of Vegas NFL odds and NFL week 9 picks for you to consider.
Eagles vs Texans Same-Game Parlay
- First Leg: Texans +14 (-110)
- Second Leg: Over 45 (-105)
Eagles vs Texans Betting Preview
Love them or hate them, it’s hard to argue against a 7-0 record. You are what your record says you are, as the saying goes. And, the Philadelphia Eagles, based on their win-loss record, are the so-called “best” team in the league.
Having one of the easiest schedules in the NFL is a contributing factor. According to NFL Strength of Schedule rankings, the Eagles have the second easiest schedule. But that in of itself isn’t a good enough reason to dismiss their winning run of form.
Firstly, it would be churlish to do so. Secondly, there’s an argument to be had about the fact that winning in the NFL isn’t easy, regardless of the opponent. Look at the Washington Commanders. They have the joint-easiest schedule with the Cowboys, but they’re not exactly smashing it, are they?
How are the @Eagles still undefeated in the NFL?
By doing things like this: pic.twitter.com/VAra1vTuxw
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) November 1, 2022
Given Philly’s dominance up to this point, it should come as no surprise that they’re favored across the board for a game that is essentially a complete and utter mismatch against an inferior opponent – on paper.
Betting on an Eagles win with Moneyline odds of -760 offers little value in terms of return on investment. You need to bet $760 to win $100. In other words, it’s a 13.2% return on your investment. So that gets a pass for this same game parlay, leaving us with the point spread and the total, where the money is at here.
With a two-touchdown spread and a modest total to consider, we look at which sides offer the best value. It’s worth keeping in mind that bookmakers with these sorts of odds appear to be expecting a rout here.
First Leg: Texans +14 (-110)
The Eagles are 5-2-0 against the spread (ATS) with an 11.1 winning margin on average. Three of their four wins featured double-digit margins, including last Sunday’s 35-13 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Eagles can put up points in a hurry. They’ve also won games with bigger margins than this spread. So, laying 14 points with them appears to be the popular NFL pick.
A couple of things to consider where the Eagles are concerned is the fact that lookahead NFL lines had this game projected to 9½ points last week. The almost five-point difference from last week to this week in the spread is a significant jump (overreaction?).
Another fun fact to consider is that the Eagles are one of the best first-half teams but not so much in the second half. They’re 27th in the league with an average of 7 points per game scored in the second half. That number drops to an average of 6.7 points per game (27th) on the road.
The lack of scoring in the second half opens the door to the potential of a backdoor cove, as losing teams invariably will try to chase the score in the latter stages of a game.
By contrast, the 1-5-1 Texans are 3-3-1 against the spread with a 5.4 losing margin on average. They’re riding a two-game losing skid, which includes losses to the Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans.
Two of their seven games featured losses with double-digit margins – 34-24 to the Chargers and 38-20 to the Raiders. However, six of their seven games have been decided by 10 or fewer points and five by seven points or less.
Taking everything into consideration, the Texans plus the points is the choice bet here. Yes, they’re outmatched in every facet of the game, but they’re playing at home and on primetime NFL. For all their faults, they aren’t pushovers. They’re scrappy competitors. It might not always be pretty, but they’re not rolling out the red carpet and inviting opponents to steamroll them in the process either.
- Pick: Texans +14 (-110)
Future is bright for @HoustonTexans rookies Dameon Pierce & Derek Stingley Jr. 🔆@IRep229 | @stingjr #PHIvsHOU — Thursday 8:15pm ET on Prime Video
Also available on NFL+ https://t.co/fK7vaWiHIa pic.twitter.com/Au161oAeLK
— NFL (@NFL) November 2, 2022
Second Leg: Over 45 (-110)
The Eagles are the third-highest-scoring team in the league with an average of 28 ppg. Not surprisingly, the Texans are on the opposite end of the scoring spectrum, ranking amongst the lowest-scoring teams with 16.6 ppg.
Adding these numbers together equals approximately 44.6 ppg. Hence, the modest 45-point total, currently sitting on the betting online board, falls right in line with the aforementioned stats.
The Eagles are the No.1 scoring team in the first half with 21 ppg on average. They’re clearly establishing hefty leads in the first half but the impetus to score in the second half isn’t as great (7ppg).
On the flip side, the Eagle’s defense is allowing opponents an average of 8 ppg in the second half and a higher 12 ppg in the second half when playing on the road.
The Texans are averaging 8 ppg in the second half and a slightly higher 11.3 ppg (14th) when playing at home at the NRG Stadium. However, they’re also allowing opponents an average of 11.3 ppg in the second half.
Taking all these stats into consideration, the balance tips slightly to the Over. Add to that intangible such as the Eagles’ growing confidence, the Texans’ desperation and the primetime element that’ll provide an electric environment for both teams to showcase their wares to a nationally televised audience….and we could see this total cracked.
- Pick: Over 45 (-110)
Eagles vs Texans Same-Game Parlay Prediction
Combine the Texans’ +14 (-110) and the Over 45 (-110), which yields parlay NFL odds of +264 as per the BetUS parlay calculator.
- Parlay: Texans +14 (-110) and Over 45 (-110) at +264