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Over of the Week: Third Time the Charm
The NFL playoffs are just around the corner with the AFC and NFC Wild Card round set to kick off the march toward Super Bowl glory this month.
Six stellar matchups are on the docket. Each one sized up with the hosts favored across the NFL odds board at BetUS sportsbook. Five of the six games are pegged on high game totals that hover around the 50-point mark, except for the AFC Wild Card clash between familiar foes: the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills.
The total for this highly anticipated AFC East tilt is the lowest and, curiously, coincides with the closing total of the last meeting between this pair that Buffalo won. Overall, the head-to-head is level at 1-1, as is the over-under in totals betting.
Early NFL betting trends reveal a distinct lean toward the under, though, which is pushing the total down. If this trend continues with the consequence of pushing the total down further, bettors may well want to wait and see how low the number goes before pulling the trigger on the over. Patience is golden, so they say.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Markets Go Low
The market opened with the total set to 43½ points, but it quickly dropped down to 43 points as early bettors rushed to grab the under according to NFL consensus betting reports. As of Monday’s writing, the under has recorded almost 55 percent of early betting volume.
Given this trend, the line is likely to either oscillate between these numbers (43 and 43½ points) during the early part of the week, if not dip down below 43 points. That would be the best-case scenario for over bettors.
Act 1: Patriots Upset Bills 14-10
Bill Belichick outcoached and outwitted counterpart Sean McDermott in their first meeting this season, game-planning the Patriots to a stunning 14-10 victory on a blustery, windy day at Orchard Park.
The Patriots closed as the three-point road underdogs while the game total closed on 40 points. The win marked an upset of the betting online odds that left the Bills and their fans collectively stunned and bewildered while the under came through for NFL totals.
In a game that the Patriots never trailed, they outgained the Bills 229 to 99 yards rushing. Damien Harris led the team with 111 rushing yards and a 64-yard touchdown while Nick Folk booted two field goals to help give New England the pivotal win.
Belichick took the ball out of his rookie quarterback’s hands and turned to the ground game instead. Mac Jones went 2 of 3 for 19 yards with zero touchdowns and interceptions.
New England Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills, 14-10!#NEvsBUF #ForeverNE pic.twitter.com/1oNqcjBIis
— SportsGrid (@SportsGrid) December 7, 2021
On the flip side, the defense stuffed Josh Allen and the Bills offense, holding them to a modest 230 total yards and 10 paltry points. They sacked the fourth-year quarterback twice, swatted his passes out of the air, held the Bills to zero fourth-down conversions and forced a fumble for a loss. Allen finished with 15 of 30 for 145 yards and one touchdown.
Act 2: Bills Win 33-21
Three weeks later, Buffalo got its own back with a 33-21 win over New England at the Foxborough. The Bills went into the Week 16 game as the one-point road underdogs for NFL picks against the spread, but clinched the so-called “upset” win nevertheless. The game total closed on 43½ points with the over cashing.
Allen dominated the game in the air and on the ground. He went 30 of 47 for 314 passing yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. Allen added another 64 yards rushing, finishing as the team’s top rusher on the day. Devin Singletary had 39 yards rushing and a score while Isaiah McKenzie and Stefon Diggs combined for 210 yards receiving and a touchdown apiece.
The Bills defense got after Jones, forcing two interceptions, a fumble and sacked the rookie once. Although the Patriots run game enjoyed success once again, running up a total of 149 yards and three touchdowns with Damien Harris doing most of the heavy-lifting, it wasn’t enough. Truth is, the turnovers undid the Patriots.
Act 3: Buy Low
The third act between this pair is cornered with the hosts across the board while the game total is pegged at 43 points. The weather was a factor when these heated rivals last crossed paths at Orchard Park in Week 13, so it raises the valid question about whether it will factor again.
Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia are #teamshorts while Mac Jones and Damien Harris perfect the Alabama handshake at a chilly #Patriots practice. 🥶🏈 pic.twitter.com/IbbzAHVxa1
— The Camera Guys (@NBCSCameraGuys) January 6, 2022
As it were, temperatures are expected to be frigid once again. However, the 40 mph winds, which neutralized Buffalo’s passing game and inspired New England to run the ball 46 times for over 200 yards, aren’t expected this time around. Well, at least not according to the early-week lookahead forecast, which is calling for milder winds with a high of 15 mph.
Predicting the weather six days out accurately is not an exact science, so checking back closer to kickoff will be useful. If the conditions are milder, it won’t wreak as much havoc with the Bills offense, which is heavily reliant on the passing game. Belichick might want to run the ball a ton and look toward his defense to keep the Bills offense in check. However, if Allen dials it up, the Patriots won’t have any other option but to air out the ball more.
As such, this game could be packed with more points than the oddsmakers would have it. For those that are patient and willing to play the wait-and-see game, waiting it out for a lower total is the recommended strategy, especially if your inclination is toward the over as recommended here.
