Prepare for another grueling matchup featuring the Cincinnati Bengals and Tennessee Titans on Sunday. The former has a banged-up quarterback who many say shouldn’t even be playing. That has greatly limited its offense. The latter is a dinosaur of a team that likes to run and not score a lot. Thus, fading the total of 41 points could make for one of the NFL best bets of the week.
Offense Remains Gimpy for Bengals
Joe Burrow (calf) remains injured for the Bengals. The star quarterback has struggled thanks to a bum leg. He’s recording his worst stats in his career and it’s a big reason why Cincinnati is ranked 28th in scoring offense. Two of their three games have gone under the total and it’s a solid NFL bet online more will so long as “Joe Brrr” is barely 50%.
But Cincinnati gutted out a win against the Los Angeles Rams thanks to the work of the defense. The Bengals still have one of the NFL’s better defenses and it’s a reason why this team continues to be favored by our sportsbook.
So if you do the math, the Bengals have a limited offense and a strong defense. This tends to be the recipe for totals trending to go under. Even if Burrow plays better, Cincinnati’s games have leaned toward the lower-scoring part. Five of their last six road games went under. So folks have made the total one of their best NFL over/under bets for Oct. 1.
Joe Burrow through the first 3 games of the season…
Bengals are 1-2 pic.twitter.com/CZmDttcTbW
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 26, 2023
Titans Continue To Play Like an Old Team
The Titans know a thing or two about having a banged-up offense with low-scoring games. This team was decimated by injuries last season and it continues in 2023. As such, Tennessee has scored the fourth-fewest points, and in six of its last seven games dating back to Week 15 last season, it has gone under the total.
Even if healthy, the Titans have a style of play that minimizes scoring. In fact, since 2021, nearly 74% of the Titans’ home games have gone under their totals (5-14-0). Tennessee had the sixth-best scoring defense in 2021. In 2022, its offense was 28th in scoring. And now, it’s a bit of both.
Most NFL picks and predictions have Tennessee’s games scoring under 40 points. The public steamed the total for this game from its opener of 43½ points to 41. It’s hard to blame folks as both sharps and squares know Tennessee will not be putting up more than 20-ish points. The question is if the Titans can hold Cincinnati to a lower score.
Over/Under Betting Trend to Care About
The total has gone under in Tennessee’s last five games against the AFC North. The average total of these games was 33.2. The Titans averaged just over 12 points in these games.
The Over/Under for Bengals vs Titans is …
It’s the low-hanging fruit as far as betting NFL over/unders for Oct. 1. Both teams have limited ceilings when it comes to their offenses. And the defenses are stalwart enough to keep the scoring low in case Burrow or Ryan Tannehill wants to let one rip.
Tennessee is prone to passing attacks and is giving up the fifth-most yards through the air. It made Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson look like his former Texans self. But Burrow’s injury can’t be overstated.
Having an ailing calf can lead to a more severe injury. He’s also averaged just 4.7 yards per passing attempt with a 35.7% first-down success rate. This team will not light up the Titans.
NFL Pick: Bengals-Titans Under 41 (-110)