Our NFL anytime touchdown scorer analysis was spot on all weekend, but with some bad luck, we dropped a few units. It’s important to remember the variance when betting on this market. It is a high-risk, high-reward market. We get an opportunity to get things back on track this Thursday when the Detroit Lions visit their NFC North division rivals, the Green Bay Packers, to kick things off in Week 4.
The Lions have won three straight matchups with Green Bay. Their most recent victory came at Lambeau Field when Detroit defeated the Packers 23-20 and knocked Green Bay out of the playoffs in Week 18. It was also the last time we saw Aaron Rodgers in the green and yellow. We know that Rodgers is gone and his replacement, Jordan Love, has looked like a winner through the first three weeks.
Both teams are 2-1 coming into Thursday night, looking to grab a clear edge in the NFC North division with a win.
Detroit went 6-0 against the spread in divisional games last season. The Lions are currently slight favorites on Thursday Night Football at 1 ½ points. The biggest storyline coming into Week 4 is likely the injuries that have impacted each team. It doesn’t help that this showdown comes on a short week.
The Packers have most notably been without Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins. The Lions injury report is shorter, but they may be without running back David Montgomery and they recently placed safety C.J. Gardner Johnson on IR. Their entire offensive line appears on the injury report, except for Penei Sewell, but none are expected to miss the game.
Here is a look at the latest NFL picks for Sept. 27 and the betting lines on the total for Thursday Night Football. The weather in Green Bay looks perfect on Thursday night, so these offenses shouldn’t be limited. The current odds have the total for this showdown at 46 points. I lean to the under as both teams play at a plodding pace.
If you are new here, you’ll need to know that I will always play this game smart. We’re not going to shoot blindly and throw noodles at the wall to see if they stick just because a player’s odds are long to score. My research will always back up the reasoning behind my NFL picks and predictions.
Week 3 wasn’t the most kind to us, but as the conductor of the anytime touchdown train, I’ve narrowed down the best options for anytime touchdown scorers for you here on Thursday Night Football in Week 4. Let’s get to the best anytime touchdown picks for the Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions. Best of luck if you try!
Packers vs Lions Best Anytime TD Scorer Bets
David Montgomery +110
I was shocked when Monty opened at +145. I would still play it at +120 but not any lower. It may not be much of a secret anymore, but Jared Goff is not the same quarterback outdoors as he is in a dome. Therefore, I’m not expecting a shootout. I don’t expect the Lions’ offense to light it up. The Packers’ pass defense has been its strength to this point, and they have a better-than-average pass rush. Goff struggles when he’s pressured, so it won’t come easy for Detroit in the passing game.
There’s some clear risk backing Montgomery this week as we don’t know how much work he will get or even if he will suit up right now. Rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs is around +120 or lower at every book, and that’s where Montgomery should be priced. Montgomery received 100 percent of the goal line attempts in the Lions’ first two games and scored in Weeks 1 and 2. He was averaging 19 touches per game before his injury.
Bet On NFL Best Anytime TD Scorer: David Montgomery +110
Luke Musgrave +240
The Packers’ second-round rookie tight end has played the most snaps of any pass catcher for Green Bay this season. He was targeted eight times last week. Jordan Love trusts his tight end. Compared to recent history, the Lions defense can actually slow down running backs. Good for them, but sad for us who remember blindly backing the running back facing Detroit every week to score. Those days could be well behind us as Detroit has allowed just 2.9 yards per carry.
Luke Musgrave oh so close to having a massive debut. Sheesh pic.twitter.com/lHg8kHjkrd
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 11, 2023
Detroit has surrendered the most receptions and receiving yards to opposing tight ends through the first three weeks. Musgrave leads the Packers in target share (21.3%) and first read share (23.4%) against zone coverage. This is notable because the Lions defense plays zone over 60% of the time.
Love leads the NFL in air yards per pass attempt, and there is optimism that wide receiver Christian Watson will make his season debut Thursday. This benefits the Packers offense because Watson is a field stretcher. The middle of the field will be wide open for Musgrave to take advantage of a Lions defense that just put its starting safety on injured reserve. It doesn’t hurt that Musgrave would have scored twice already this season if Love made better throws in his direction, so this is an “I owe you” spot. I like Musgrave to have somewhat of a coming-out party in primetime.
Bet On NFL Best Anytime TD Scorer: Luke Musgrave +240