Packers vs Texans: Week 7 Betting Odds Analysis

Betting Lines

Green Bay Packers

Betting Record

 Next game: vs Vikings

Last Game

38-10 loss at Bucs

The Packers were unbeaten, but ran into a wall and endured a game in which nothing went right. They were shut down by a Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense that had two extra days to rest and prepare for them. The Bucs had played a Thursday game on Oct. 8, which enabled them to gear up for the Packers. Tampa Bay showed that it had done its film study, registering a pick-six on Aaron Rodgers and generating a consistent pass rush that shaped the flow of the game. Green Bay watched Tampa Bay score 28 points in the second quarter, an avalanche from which the Packers were never able to recover.

Stats Pack

The numbers were as ugly as online betting would assume in a 28-point loss. Aaron Rodgers completed just 16-of-35 passes for 160 yards and two interceptions, one of them being the pick-six mentioned above. Running back Jamaal Williams gained just 34 yards. Receiver Davante Adams accumulated only 61 receiving yards. The Packers were smothered, gaining just 13 first downs and only 201 yards.

Head-to-Head

The Packers beat the Texans, 21-13, on Dec. 4, 2016.

Trends

The total in the sportsbook has hit the over in five of Green Bay’s last six games. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.

Injury Report

The Packers have cornerback Kevin King and backup running back Tyler Ervin listed as out. Offensive tackle David Bakhtiari is probable for Houston. The coaches are optimistic about his ability to be ready for the Texans. A few other players remain questionable, such as safety Darnell Savage and cornerback Parry Nickerson.

Houston Texans

Betting Record

 Next game: at Jaguars

Last Game

42-36 loss at Titans

The Texans’ miserable year continues. They were one of the final eight playoff teams in the NFL last year, making the divisional playoff round before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. More than that, the Texans had a 24-0 lead in that game. They were on the verge of hosting the AFC Championship Game for the first time in franchise history. They were so close to tasting supreme success as a football club and making the organization’s first Super Bowl. Now they’re 1-5 and reeling.

It’s not just the fact that the Texans are losing a lot, which is a source of frustration; more than the losses themselves is the way they’re happening. They let a close game against the Pittsburgh Steelers slip away. They lost to a Minnesota Vikings team that has won one game – yes, Houston was Minnesota’s escape hatch. Now comes this loss to an unbeaten Tennessee team, which was on the ropes. The Texans let the Titans slip through their fingers. Houston had a seven-point lead, 36-29, in the final minutes, and after scoring a touchdown, went for two.

The rationale was that Houston could get a nine-point lead at 38-29 and make it impossible for Tennessee to get two scores in the last two minutes. Deshaun Watson had a receiver wide open in the end zone for that 2-point play, but the pass was batted down at the line of scrimmage. Tennessee drove downfield and scored to tie the game in the final 15 seconds. The Titans then won the coin toss in overtime and drove for a walk-off, game-ending touchdown. Watson and the Texans weren’t able to touch the ball once in the overtime period. It was the latest cruel twist for a team now led by interim coach Romeo Crennel, who replaced fired coach Bill O’Brien.

Stats Pack

Watson did all he could to beat the Titans and give Tennessee its first loss but came up short. He completed 28-of-37 passes for 335 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Watson remains an amazing player, which makes it that much harder to comprehend how improbable it is that the Texans are 1-5.

Watson was accompanied against the Titans by receiver Will Fuller, who has been good this season without the presence of DeAndre Hopkins (who is now with the Arizona Cardinals) to spread out the defense and put Fuller in more one-on-one situations. Fuller caught six passes against Tennessee for 123 yards and a touchdown. It still wasn’t enough.

Trends

Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six games. The total has hit the over in four of Houston’s last six games.

Injury Report

Backup running back Buddy Howell, linebacker Peter Kalambayi, cornerback Cornell Armstrong, and tight end Jordan Akins, are all listed as being out.

Betting on the Game

Point Spread: Packers -3.5

The Packers are a good team, and it would be reasonable to bet that Rodgers, after his stink-bomb of a performance against the Buccaneers, will come back with a sharp and focused effort against the Texans. Watson is great and will probably make a few key plays against the Packers’ defense, but if Rodgers is relentlessly consistent, Houston will not be able to keep pace. The Texans’ defense was shredded by Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans’ passing game. Imagine what Rodgers can do if he is on target and generally sharp. They’re the smart play on the NFL odds here.

Here is a look at the latest Super Bowl Odds

Moneyline: Packers -150

The bottom line here is that the Packers and Rodgers were both horrible against Tampa Bay. If you think the quarterback and his team will both play poorly two straight weeks, bet on the Texans on the moneyline. The smart play would be to trust that Rodgers and the Packers will bounce back. That is the much more likely outcome here.

Over/Under: Over 56

The presence of Rodgers – after a bad game – should lead to a good score for the Packers, in the 30s at least (and maybe the 40s). Watson should be able to score at least 24 points if not more for the Texans. This game has the makings of a shootout. It should go over.