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NFL Parlay of the Week: Picks & Odds Week 11

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks dropped a right stink bomb in Green Bay last Sunday, losing 17-0 at Lambeau Field and failing to whiff at the 3-point closing point spread for NFL picks against the spread.

Wilson’s miraculous return from a finger injury that should have taken at least eight weeks to heal caused a lot of hype, which in turn raised expectations and jacked up Seattle’s value in the betting.

Football on Field

Wilson had a hand (no pun intended) in stoking the hype, releasing videos of his intense gym training sessions and finger gymnastics on social media. Snazzy PR videos that had his followers appropriately awed and heaping praise his way, going so far as to call him a Wolverine. Imagine that!

Failure to launch is the expression that springs to mind as the Packers blanked the Seahawks. Perhaps, some allowances can be made for rust after missing a month of football, but it might go deeper than that. Wilson was missing passes left and right, wildly missing his wide receivers. For all we know, DK Metcalf’s dad might be working on a video montage a la Beckham Sr. right now.

Either bookmakers didn’t watch last weekend’s game or they saw something different because the Seahawks opened as the small home underdogs to the Cardinals. Granted, the Cardinals lost the very same week to the Panthers, but Murray didn’t start that game.

The Cardinals are at their best with Kyler Murray at the helm. As Murray’s status remains a game-time decision, this uncertainty has conflated the NFL betting lines for this game while underrating the Cardinals and, in turn, overrating the Seahawks.

However, the line movement is even more interesting. The line opened with the Seahawks trading as the +2 home dogs, but it trimmed down to Seahawks +1 as the weekend approached.

That’s quite the vote of confidence for a team that hasn’t played well all season long and whose quarterback may not be 100% fit, having returned from an injury probably too soon. And that’s not even considering the opposition and how the Seahawks matchup against the best in the NFC West. The Cardinals are a league-leading 8-2 on the season, and they’re 7-3-0 against the spread (ATS).

Given the contrasting fortunes of both these teams, one has to like the Cardinals at -1. Essentially, the Cardinals need to win this game straight up, which isn’t an unreasonable outcome.

Pick: Cardinals -1

Cowboys at Chiefs -2½

Oi! Mind TheTrap! The 7-2 Cowboys are merely 2½ -point road underdogs to the 6-4 Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium!

If you’re on the fence with the “Chiefs are back” narrative, unsure that dominating the Raiders last Sunday was enough to reinstate belief in the Chiefs’ value at the sportsbook exchange, then this is the game that just might do the trick.

Books have been daring bettors to take the Cowboys all week, and it seems to be working as 58% of early bets have gone towards Dallas as the underdogs. This opens the door to the Chiefs as the value play here.

Granted, a lot is being made about the Chiefs not covering the spread this season. They’re merely 3-7-0 ATS, which is one of the worst records against the spread. But stats aren’t always straightforward, and they can be misleading in certain ways.

Admittedly, the Chiefs haven’t been as sharp as in previous seasons, but they’ve had a tougher schedule than most teams (ranked 11th in NFL Strength of Schedule (SOS) rankings). Opponents also have seen enough of Mahomes’ film to better prepare for the Chiefs and take away what they do best. After all, no team is infallible.

What’s more, in Kansas City’s case, the popularity of the Chiefs amongst bettors is directly responsible for this. Typically, books will inflate lines for popular teams, knowing that a good proportion of betting online enthusiasts will bite. Of course, these inflated lines aren’t advertised. For example, books won’t come out and say the Chiefs should have been a 6-point favorite. They’ll just go ahead and post the Chiefs as the 7 or 7½-point favorite knowing they’ll get action on the Chiefs regardless.

Now, this week is particularly interesting because the Chiefs face America’s favorite team, the Dallas Cowboys, at Arrowhead Stadium — another team that enjoys just as much draw (if not more) amongst bettors. Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level, the Cowboys are soaring in the NFC, and their popularity is at an all-time high. Many are buying what Dallas is selling, even though they have the 31st toughest (or rather second-easiest) schedule according to NFL SOS rankings

For the markets, all this popularity is catnip that they can use to lure bettors with. One doesn’t need to be an NFL savant to understand that a clash between two popular teams is bound to cause division. That there will be bettors that can’t believe the Cowboys are as low as the 2 ½ point road underdogs, and, equally, those that can’t believe the Chiefs are as low as the 2½-point home favorites. Which one are you?

Pick: Chiefs -2½

Parlay: Arizona Cardinals -1 and Kansas City Chiefs -2½

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