Patriots vs Bills NFL Week 16 Prediction: Bet Buffalo ATS and Player Prop for December 22
- Find the best Patriots vs Bills betting lines for Sunday at the BetUS sportsbook
- Buffalo remains a solid bet to deliver despite being whopping favorites on the odds
- Get our expert Patriots vs Bills picks, which includes why the total will go over
After two explosive road games, the Buffalo Bills head back to Orchard Park where they are massively favored over the New England Patriots. Despite the wide NFL odds, the best bet is still with Buffalo. This is not a “trap line” as many would think as Josh Allen has been on a tear, especially since getting engaged. We’re not betting against him or Buffalo and neither should you.

Josh Allen is now the first player in NFL history with 35 or more passing and rushing TD in four consecutive seasons.
Stud. pic.twitter.com/d14PPROfcU
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 15, 2024
Patriots vs Bills Game Information
- Game: Patriots (3-11) vs Bills (11-3)
- Date/Time: Sunday, Dec. 22, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- Patriots vs Bills Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
Check the latest Patriots vs Bills betting trends here.
Patriots vs Bills Odds and Spreads
4 Patriots vs Bills Bets for NFL Week 16
1. Buffalo Bills ML (-1200)
Two seemingly contradictory statements can be true: 1) Buffalo may underwhelm in this divisional game, and 2) Buffalo can still win and cover the spread. This is a lofty claim considering Buffalo needs to win by more than two touchdowns to cover as an NFL pick against the spread (ATS). But the Bills are levels above the Patriots even if they don’t try too hard.
We doubt the Patriots’ defense can hold him off even if it is ranked in the top 12 among visitors. The Bills should win, and it’s a great addition to your NFL parlay picks.
2. Buffalo Bills ATS -14
The Patriots are also just 2-4 ATS in their last six meetings with Buffalo and 1-4 ATS in their last five division games. They are tied 2-2 ATS when Buffalo is favored by 7+ points. We also don’t like NFL news showing a disconnect between Patriots quarterback Drake Maye and the staff.
We don’t normally enjoy betting teams at such hefty spreads. Yet six of Buffalo’s last nine home wins have been by 14+ points. Bet on Buffalo to blow New England out.
3. Rhamondre Stevenson Over 44.5 Rushing Yards
We can bet online there won’t be 90+ or even 80+ points scored here. Buffalo’s game is due for some regression though the total should still go over 46.5 points. It’s the Bills, the NFL’s top-scoring home offense with an average of 35 points per game. Even if New England only averages 14.1 points, the fewest among visitors, there is enough here to go over.
Amari Cooper: “F*ck it, Josh Allen is there somewhere.” #Bills #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/DGxkU1pjcC
— alex brasky (@alexbrasky) December 2, 2024
Buffalo averages 31.8 points in its last six games against New England. This is mainly why five of their last six totals have gone over. On the flip side, the Bills’ defense has gotten exposed with its lack of a pass rush or consistency at neutralizing the run.
Bet on Rhamondre Stevenson Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
4. Patriots vs Bills Over 46.5
The Patriots have an awful offensive line. But Maye is mobile enough of a quarterback to elude Buffalo’s pressure. And speaking of running, Rhamondre Stevenson is a solid back who’s tallied at least 69 yards in four of his last five outings. If they can get the run game going–and we’re betting they will–the Pats can move the ball against Buffalo.
New England needs to only score in the high teens for this total to go over. Buffalo should be good to score 30+ even if it starts slow. Betting on New England to cover the first-quarter spread at +3.5 may also be a shrewd NFL prediction here. But in those final quarters, bank on Buffalo to start rolling and scoring. The total goes over.
Bet on Patriots vs Bills Over 46.5
More Patriots vs Bills Week 16 Bets and Picks
- Patriots vs Bills Parlay Picks: Bet TD’s
- Patriots vs Bills Prediction and NFL Player Props for Week 16
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
Questions of the Day
How many points does Buffalo allow in the first quarter at home?
The Bills give up 2.7 points per first quarter when playing at home.
What is New England’s ATS record when playing as a road underdog?
The Patriots are 3-4 against the spread when playing on the road as an underdog.