Ravens at Steelers: Expert Betting Prediction

The Ravens come into this AFC North matchup with two straight losses and three in four games. NFL Betting fans will have to decide whether the Ravens will show some resilience and keep their playoff hopes alive or drop a third straight. I’ll share my take and we’ll preview the major betting lines and props from this matchup. Currently, the Steelers are four-point home favorites.

NFL Betting Lines

The Ravens fell in overtime to the Titans 30-24 in Week 11. Baltimore had an 11-point lead with nine minutes remaining in the third quarter but collapsed. The Ravens were out-gained by the Titans 306-110 for the remainder of the game and only scored three more points. Derrick Henry ran for 133 yards on 28 carries, including a 29-yard game-winning touchdown. Ryan Tannehill threw for 259 yards, with two touchdowns and an interception. Lamar Jackson’s 2020 struggles continued as he threw 2 interceptions and only completed 17-of-29 passes for 186 yards. He also threw two touchdown passes and rushed for 51 yards on 13 carries. Dobbins, who is out, totaled 85 all-purpose yards and a touchdown.

The Steelers blew the Jaguars out 27-3 in Week 11. Pittsburgh held the Jaguars to 206 total yards and forced four turnovers. Pittsburgh’s defense tortured Jaguars QB Jake Luton in his third career start. The Steelers picked him off four times and held him to 16-of-37 passing and 151 yards. Big Ben continued his MVP caliber play. Roethlisberger completed 32-of-46 passes with two touchdowns and an interception. RB James Conner added 89 yards on 13 carries. WR Diontae Johnson had a game-high 12 receptions and 111 yards.

Moneyline: Ravens +170 | Steelers -200

As good as the Steelers have been, they’ve only played three teams with winning records. They blew out the Browns in Week 6 but faced tough tests from the Titans and the Ravens in the two following weeks. It’ll be interesting to see if complacency affects the Steelers at all, as they’ve played three straight bad teams. This is the most pivotal game of the Ravens’ season. If they lose, they’ll need to qualify for a Wild-Card spot to make the playoffs, which will be tough. There are currently three 6-4 teams, including Baltimore, and two 7-3 teams in contention for AFC Wild-Card spots.

The Ravens have a soft schedule to close the season but this is as close to a must-win as it gets. I simply can’t count the Ravens out here. Gus Edwards ran for 87 yards against the Steelers in Week 8 and can fill in capably for their missing backs. Lamar Jackson hasn’t performed like it, but he’s the same player that won the 2019 NFL MVP. The last time Jackson and the Ravens lost two straight, they rattled off 14 regular-season wins in a row. I’m not saying that’ll happen again, but I am picking the Ravens to win against the conventional wisdom here. They won both meetings against the Steelers last year and have won three of the past five matchups.

Pick: Ravens to Win

Point Spread: Ravens +4

It follows that I also have the Ravens to cover the spread here. Honestly, the trends for the Ravens in this department haven’t been great recently. They’ve only won two of their last eight games ATS, going 2-5-1 ATS in that span. However, this is only the second time they’ve been underdogs all season. Three weeks ago they were +1 against the Colts and ended up beating them by two touchdowns.

Meanwhile, the Steelers have an 8-2 record ATS and have covered in their last two games. They’re also the number one team in our NFL Power Rankings. But, the Ravens outgained the Steelers 457-211 in their Week 8 matchup and would have won if not for four turnovers. If the Ravens can take care of the ball, their defense certainly has what it takes to push them over the edge and cover here.

Pick: Ravens to Cover

Over/Under: 45 points

The Steelers have averaged 33.2 points per game at home and the over is 4-1 in their five home games. These teams scored 52 points between them in their Week 8 matchup. Edwards and Jackson accounted for 152 rushing yards in that game and all of the Ravens’ touchdowns. The over has hit in three of the last five Ravens games and I think they’ll have a solid day offensively here. Take the over.

Pick: Over 45 points

Props Talk for Ravens at Steelers

Will There Be a Defensive or Special Teams TD

Yes +200

Jackson opened the Ravens’ Week 8 game against the Steelers with a pick-six. While I think that’s probably unlikely to happen on the first drive, I think both defenses have the ability to score. The Steelers rank first in the league with 20 takeaways and the Ravens aren’t too far behind in fourth, with 17. Between them, they have six non-offensive touchdowns this season.

Over/Under 5½ TDs

Over +125

There were six touchdowns when these teams played in Week 8. This has occurred in each of the three times the Steelers have played an opponent with a winning record this season.

Double Result

Steelers/Ravens +750

These types of props are always kind of a shot in the dark, but this one stood out to me in the sportsbook. A comeback win that saves the Ravens season would be an excellent storyline and it’s not terribly unlikely.

Final Score: Ravens 28, Steelers 27