The Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers reprise their rivalry Sunday, while both sides look to get back on track following losses in Week 3. Books cornered this game with Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners as the home chalk, but the public went against the market and grabbed the points with Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Who’s got it right? The books or the public?
|Game: Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1)
Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara
Date: Sunday, Oct. 3, 2021
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
|Team||Point Spread||Moneyline||Over/Under||Team Total|
|Seattle Seahawks||+2½ -110||+115||51½ -110o||24½ -115o
|San Francisco 49ers||-2½ -110||-135||51½ -110u||27 -115o
The NFC West rivalry between the Seahawks and Niners has been one of the best in recent memory. The Seahawks swept the series in 2020, although the Niners were riddled with injuries and the outcome wasn’t entirely representative. Arguably, the best examples of this rivalry came in 2019 when they split the series 1-1. The Seahawks upset the Niners 27-24 in overtime at Levi’s Stadium. The Niners returned the favor with a 26-21 win in Seattle to clinch the NFC West title..
Next game: vs. LA Rams
After starting the season brightly, the wheels have come undone for Pete Carroll’s side in the last two games. The Seahawks are coming off losses to the Titans and Vikings, slipping to a 1-2 record and a 1-2 record against the spread (ATS).
The Seahawks led the Titans in Week 2 before Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry rallied to lift Tennessee to the come-from-behind 33-30 victory in Seattle. The following week, the Seahawks came out flat against a Minnesota Vikings side that was still searching for its first win. The Seahawks offered little resistance and succumbed 30-17 to the Vikings.
Running back Rashaad Penny (calf) is out, along with defensive end Alton Robinson (knee) and tackle Brandon Shell (ankle). Wide receiver Tyler Lockett (hip) and tight end Colby Parkinson (foot) are probable. Wide receiver Dwayne Eskridge (concussion) is doubtful.
San Francisco 49ers
Next game: at Arizona Cardinals
The San Francisco 49ers lost a heartbreaker on Sunday night, succumbing to the Packers 30-28 at Levi’s Stadium. Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners rose to the occasion and lifted the Niners to the 28-27 lead over the Packers with 37 seconds left. Alas, it wasn’t enough.
The final drive took just over two minutes (2:02) as Jimmy G. marched the Niners down the field with eight plays, 75 yards, and touchdown. Against any other team or quarterback that might have been enough. Rodgers, however, is at another level and in less than 35 seconds he had Mason Crosby set up for the game-winning field goal.
Defensive back Josh Norman (lung) is doubtful. Defensive lineman Arik Armstead (thigh) and running back Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) are probable. Tight end George Kittle (calf), cornerback Davonte Smith (hamstring) , defensive lineman Maurice Hurst (ankle), and defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw (knee) are questionable.
Betting on the Game
Books opened this game with the Niners favored a whisker above three points, but early betting has bet the line down to 2½ points with most sportsbooks. A few shops have taken the move further and gone down as low as -2. The line movement appears to be down to the volume of betting going towards the Seahawks — consensus betting reports show an almost 70 to 30% split between the Seahawks and Niners, respectively.
There’s a lot to like about both teams in this matchup, suggesting there is value on both sides of the coin for NFL picks against the spread. Traditionally, Wilson and the Seahawks are a side that can never be underestimated, no matter where they are with form or if they look down.
Having said that, this is a potential trap spot for the Seahawks because they’re set to face the Los Angeles Rams in Thursday night football marking Week 5. If the Seahawks are caught looking too far ahead to their primetime showdown on a short week, the Niners might very well pounce.
San Francisco faces another NFC West opponent in Week 5 but it will have a full week to prepare for the Week 5 clash with the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm.
With the NFL betting lines and odds tighter than an accountant’s purse between the Niners and Seahawks, there’s relatively good value on the moneyline for either side. With odds of +115 for Seattle and -135 for the Niners, the implied probability is approximately 45% to 55% respectively. Those are NFL odds that fans of both teams will take any day of the week.
Everything about this matchup suggests a veritable shootout between these two teams as Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo go toe-to-toe. Jimmy G. has a lot to prove after last week’s slow start while Wilson will hope Pete Caroll lets him cook. Indeed, the public is betting the over for this game. The total is currently sitting on 51½ points, but some sportsbooks have already gone as high as 52 points.