We end another Sunday packed with NFL betting lines with a matchup between teams that began the season with Super Bowl aspirations. The Jets were dealt a bad hand early in the 2023 campaign. They lost Aaron Rodgers to a torn Achilles in Week 1. We all hoped this would have been Rodgers versus Patrick Mahomes. The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are looking to improve to 3-1 meanwhile the Jets are fighting to stay in the AFC playoff discussion.
The Jets have turned to Zach Wilson again, hoping he can be a productive quarterback. Fans have been calling for the embattled Wilson to get benched as the offense has sputtered the last two weeks with the Jets falling to 1-2. New York needs its 2021 No. 2 overall pick to get the offense going. Wilson has the lowest QBR (34.4) in the NFL since he entered the league. The Jets rank last in points scored, total yards, and first downs!
Believe it or not, Mahomes struggled during the first three weeks. He got things back on track in Week 3, though. The Jets and Chiefs bring formidable defenses to the field, so this one should be entertaining! Trying to find value in the anytime touchdown scorer market with Wilson is tough, but anytime we have Mahomes on the field, there’s always an opportunity for touchdowns!
Looking at the latest Sunday Night Football over-under, the total is currently set at 41.5 points. In a game that features Mahomes, this is a low total. In the offseason, the spread for this matchup was only 1 point in favor of the Chiefs. With Rodgers’ injury, the Sunday Night Football point spread is nearly double digits. The world will be watching to see if superstar Taylor Swift will attend MetLife to support Travis Kelce. She appeared last week at the Chiefs home game to watch the thumping of the dumpster fire that is the Chicago Bears. In the win, Mahomes and the offense was in sync as the reigning MVP threw for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns.
If you are new to the touchdown train, you’ll need to know that I will always play this game smart. We’re not going to shoot blindly and throw noodles at the wall to see if they stick just because a player’s odds are long to score. The research I’ve done will always back up my Sunday Night Football picks.
I’ve narrowed down the best options for anytime touchdown scorers for you here on Sunday Night Football. Let’s get to the best anytime touchdown picks for the New York Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs. Best of luck if you try!
Jets vs. Chiefs Best Anytime TD Bets
Go With a Bet on Rashee Rice to Score a TD at +450 Odds
Over the last two weeks, the Jets have a third-down conversion rate of 12%. That is good for the lowest in the NFL. They have converted on just 3-of-24 third downs! To make matters worse, the Chiefs defense has been great, slowing down opposing wide receivers this season. That’s not ideal when you’re against Mahomes and Andy Reid. The Jets can’t afford to give Kansas City multiple opportunities on offense, but that’s what I expect to happen.
The Chiefs run game will struggle because the Jets have a nasty defense against the run. The Jets defense has allowed the fourth-fewest explosive runs and the second-lowest yards after contact. This leads me to believe Ma-homie and the Chiefs will throw for multiple scores.
New York’s defense is excellent against receivers, so this pick is more of a testament to the increase in red zone targets for the rookie. Rice fell short at the goal line in Week 3 that was initially ruled a touchdown on the field. The Jets have been a top red zone defense, so getting mismatches is something Reid will try to exploit. Rice will run most of his routes from the slot against Michael Carter. The rookie is 6-2 and 200 pounds, so it’s easy to imagine Mahomes looking his way in the red zone. He has an opportunity to become a household name in primetime.
Combine a Travis Kelce TD and a Chiefs Win -106
This is no doubt a chalk pick. The biggest hole in the Jets defense has been defending tight ends. They have allowed the fifth-most yards to the position through the first three weeks and have already allowed three touchdowns to tight ends.
Robert Saleh’s defenses have been susceptible to tight ends as they have been at least bottom-six in both catches and yards allowed to the position for the past two seasons. Kelce has scored in 5 straight games dating back to last season.
Sunday Night Football has a chance to be taken over by the “Swifties.” They all want to see Kelce in the end zone. This is the first time Mahomes will play at MetLife Stadium. I expect the Chiefs and him to do their thing and take it to the Jets defense that had players come out before the season claiming they are among the best defenses ever. Regarding the Chiefs leaving Week 4 with another win, Mahomes is 37-3 straight up in games where he and the Chiefs are favorites of a touchdown or more!