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Sunday’s Best Player Props: RBs White, Jones Top Picks

Player props have been an excellent market all season long, and I plan to deliver more of the best NFL player prop bets for Week 18. This Sunday marks the final day of the regular season, so I’m looking to cap it off with a bang.

Looking ahead at the weekend, we’re attempting to get the best number for our player prop bets. The player prop market has exploded in recent years, so it’s prudent to get these bets in before the NFL Las Vegas odds shift. Before we know it, we’ll be looking at Super Bowl prop bets.

Sunday’s Best Player Props: RBs White, Jones Top Picks
Sunday’s Best Player Props: RBs White, Jones Top Picks

Tracking injuries in the NFL is crucial, especially when wagering on the player prop market. Another important factor to consider is the weather. Surprisingly, the forecast looks solid and clear for the majority of the matchups this weekend, aside from a few exceptions.

The Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday afternoon, and a winter storm will disrupt that game. On Sunday in Foxborough, that same storm will likely dump snow on the New York Jets and New England Patriots clash. Considering these outside factors is key, but I’ve done all that work for you.

As we enter the Week 18 games, there are numerous storylines and plenty of potential profit to be made in the process. Some games have zero playoff implications, and others that will decide who hits the beach next week or hosts a playoff game.

Teams eliminated from playoff contention:

  • Bengals (8-8)
  • Broncos (8-8)
  • Bears (7-9)
  • Raiders (7-9)
  • Jets (6-10)
  • Chargers (5-11)
  • Giants (5-11)
  • Titans (5-11)
  • Cardinals (4-12)
  • Commanders (4-12)
  • Patriots (4-12)
  • Panthers (2-14

Teams that have clinched a playoff berth and not much to play for:

  • Browns (11-5 – resting key starters)
  • Rams (9-7 – resting key starters)

Teams that have clinched the division with not much to play for:

  • Lions (11-5 – won’t be resting starters)
  • Chiefs (10-6 – resting key starters)

Teams that have clinched top seed and first-round bye:

  • Ravens (13-3 – resting key starters)
  • 49ers (12-4 – resting key starters)

 

Teams Fighting for a Playoff Berth and Positioning:

  • Bills (10-6)
  • Steelers (9-7)
  • Packers (8-8)
  • Seahawks (8-8)
  • Vikings (7-9)

Teams that Have Clinched a Playoff Spot or are Actively Fighting for Division Title:

  • Dolphins (11-5)
  • Cowboys (11-5)
  • Eagles (11-5)
  • Colts (9-7)
  • Texans (9-7)
  • Buccaneers (8-8)
  • Saints (8-8)
  • Jaguars (9-7)
  • Falcons (7-9)

The good news is we have plenty of info on every NFL team we can use to make our NFL expert picks for Week 18. Let’s get to the best NFL bets of the week. Best of luck if you tail.

 

Best NFL Week 18 Player Props

Texans TE Dalton Schultz Longest Reception Over 17.5 Yards

I’m kicking things off with the Saturday night special kickoff between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. The winner of this matchup clinches an AFC playoff berth, and if the Jacksonville Jaguars lose on Sunday at home versus the Tennessee Titans, the winner of this game clinches the AFC South title. The Colts’ defense has struggled at times this season, allowing the seventh-most points.

Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has been phenomenal all season long for Houston, and he should light up this Colts secondary that could be undermanned. Gus Bradley’s defense primarily is in Cover-3. Stroud has been excellent against this pass coverage, ranking second in yards per attempt and first in passer rating when facing it. The Colts are also getting crushed by explosive pass plays. Indy has allowed the third-highest completion percentage on throws of 20 or more yards and Stroud has the second-best QB rating on throws of 20 or more yards.

You’ve probably seen a ton of love for Dalton Schultz, as he has incentives that could make him upwards of $500K. I also like his over 4.5 receptions, but I’m opting for this single reception to go over 17.5 yards because he has achieved this in six of his last eight healthy games with Stroud under center. The Colts have allowed an opposing tight end to do this in 10 of 16 games this season, and Schultz should have his opportunities.

 

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-197)

Moving on to Sunday’s massive schedule, I’m looking at the games with massive implications instead of trying to find the value on backups in meaningless games. The Seattle Seahawks will travel to the desert to take on the feisty Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are much improved with Kyler Murray back at full strength but the defense remains bottom-three in the NFL. Geno Smith and company won’t mess around this Sunday. A win is necessary to keep their playoff hopes alive as they hope a win coincides with a Packers loss against Chicago. If Seattle clinches a playoff berth, Smith is set to make an extra $2 million incentive.

In their first meeting earlier this season in Week 7, Smith averaged a season-high 9.1 yards per attempt. Arizona has allowed the highest passer rating in the NFL since Week 12. Smith-Njigba was the first receiver selected in the draft and has been in the shadow of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf for most of his rookie year. He has still found a way to eclipse this number in 10 of his last 12 games since Seattle’s bye week, including posting 63 yards against the Cardinals in Week 7. Arizona has been running out a two-high safety defensive shell at the second-highest rate over the last five games. Smith-Njigba is second in target share behind Lockett when Smith is facing this type of coverage. Fire up the rookie in Week 18.

 

Bucs RB Rachaad White Over 17.5 Rush Attempts (-139)

Another matchup with plenty on the line is the NFC South meeting between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers. Tampa Bay can clinch the NFC South title with a win, but the Bucs will miss the playoffs if they lose. Tampa Bay will go all out to win this game and will lean on its top playmakers. Running back Rachaad White has enjoyed a breakout season with veteran Leonard Fournette no longer in town. In the Week 13 matchup against Carolina, White rushed 20 times for 84 yards and a score. The Panthers are dead last in defensive rush EPA and success rate this season. Carolina is just one of four teams that has seen over 400 rush attempts against them by opposing running backs this season. White has had at least 20 carries in four of the last five games and in six of his last nine overall.

 

Packers RB Aaron Jones Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Here is another game with something on the line on Sunday. The Packers will clinch a wild card spot with a win on Sunday at Lambeau when they host the Chicago Bears. However, this won’t be an easy task as Justin Fields and the Bears have been cooking of late.

The good news for Green Bay is star running back Aaron Jones is back at full strength. He has received at least 17 touches in three consecutive games and now gets a solid matchup for his skill set. The Bears own the NFL’s top-ranked run defense in yards allowed per game (84.0), but they have been susceptible to backs who can catch the ball out of the backfield. The Bears have allowed the second-most receptions and the most receiving yards to opposing running backs this season. Backfield mate A.J. Dillon has been ruled out this Sunday, opening the door even wider for Jones. He has three or more receptions in five of his seven healthy games this season and has exceeded 15.5 receiving yards in six of his seven healthy games. Go with Jones to continue his strong finish to the season.

 

 

Questions Of The Day

What are some of the best player props for this Sunday?


Some of the best player props for this Sunday include Aaron Jones to go over his receiving totals, Rachaad White to exceed his total rush attempts and rookie wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba to have a solid day against a poor Arizona Cardinals secondary.

Who's the best bet for this Saturday in Week 18?


The best bet for this Saturday in Week 18 is for Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz to go over his receiving props.

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