The Kansas City Chiefs are the underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 57 markets, a Super Bowl betting outlook that resonates across the board. But does the market have it right?
The Eagles are the -125 favorites (bet $125 to win $100) on the money line as we look at the latest Super Bowl odds while the Chiefs are the small underdogs priced at +105 (bet $100 to win $105). Moreover, the point spread is set to Philadelphia -1, dropping from an opening -2½.
The disadvantage is minuscule granted. But it doesn’t make it right. If anything, it opens value with the Chiefs in a game that, until a few weeks ago, everybody and their grandmother believed they would win.
Have you decided how to line up your Super Bowl 57 picks? If not, read on because we’re talking about why bettors should lock down the Chiefs here. If nothing else, these betting tips are bound to be useful in one way or another.
Super Bowl 57 Odds
- Pointspread: Eagles -1 (-120)
- Moneyline: Chiefs +105 | Eagles -125
- Total: O 51 (-110) | U 51 (-110)
Chiefs Fell Out Of Favor Prematurely
The Chiefs opened as the Super Bowl 57 favorites – along with the Buffalo Bills – in February 2022 when markets went to press with their initial serving of Super Bowl futures. They held their place at the top of the betting online board through the offseason, the start of the 2022 regular season, and the start of the playoffs, too.
The Chiefs basked in market favor until Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain in Kansas City’s postseason opener. Although Mahomes finished the game and helped lift his side to the 27-20 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, the damage was done. Questions about his fitness persisted and those prompted the SB57 market to shift toward the Eagles ahead of the Conference Championship round.
Even though Mahomes started against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game and answered those questions by stoically leading the Chiefs to the hard-fought 23-20 win, the markets remained as they were.
The Chiefs Have Been the NFL’s Best Team
Ever since the advent of Mahomes in 2018, the Chiefs have been a model of consistency and perennial favorites to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy. The Chiefs have reached no less than the AFC Championship Game in five consecutive seasons and three Super Bowls, including this year’s showdown with the Eagles in the Arizona desert.
Not since the heyday of the New England Patriots, thanks to the head coach and quarterback partnership of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, has a team performed at such a high level – and for that reason, many believe the Chiefs are the next dynasty to rule the AFC.
Three years ago today, we won Super Bowl LIV 🎉 pic.twitter.com/IOfJaRfpJ2
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) February 2, 2023
Chiefs Overcome Tough Regular-Season Schedule
The Chiefs and the Eagles both finished with an identical 14-3-0 record on the season and the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences. However, the Chiefs did it while playing the fifth-toughest schedule and the Eagles did it while playing the second-easiest schedule. That’s telling!
They navigated a tougher schedule with panache. Throughout the season, the Chiefs led the league in a number of key categories, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They were the No. 1 scoring offense (29.2 ppg), the No. 1 total offense (413.6 yards per game) and the No. 1 passing offense (297.8 ypg).
Mahomes, The X-Factor
The offense begins with Mahomes – and, arguably, there is no quarterback better than the fifth-year starter, who is potentially closing in on his second regular-season MVP award this week and second career Super Bowl ring.
The 27-year-old led the league with 5,250 passing yards and 41 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. He completed 67.1 % of his passes and finished with a 105.2 passer rating.
Patrick Mahomes has 3+ passing TDs in 7 of his 13 career playoff games
Mahomes O2.5 passing TDs is currently +160
Do with that information whatever you see fit pic.twitter.com/paQA6XnyAE
— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) February 9, 2023
When the Chiefs decided to trade away All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, many expected Kansas City’s offense would regress. Few believed Mahomes, never mind the Chiefs as a whole, would overcome the loss of such a dynamic player and an oft-favored weapon on the offense. But he did. So, too, the team.
To replace Hill, the Chiefs brought in Juju Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney and elevated Mecole Hardman to a more integral role. Although Hardman was put on injured reserve this Monday, Mahomes is likely to have Smith-Schuster and Toney available on Sunday. Let’s not forget, he also has only the best tight end in the game, Travis Kelce.
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) February 8, 2023
Don’t Underestimate Chiefs Defense
The defense is oft-underrated and overshadowed by Mahomes and the high-octane offense. Case in point: The Chief’s defense was amongst the best defense against the rush and finished second in sacks.
The Chiefs ranked 11th in total defense and eighth overall against the run with 107.2 yards per game allowed. Kansas City allowed the fifth-fewest rushing scores this year (10) and just 4.4 yards per carry. They were also second in sacks.
It goes without saying, defense – and especially stopping the run – will be key against the Eagles and their dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts. The Eagles were fifth in rushing with 147.6 yards per game.
Hurts missed a couple of games in December due to a shoulder injury. He played in the final week of the regular season and in both playoff games, but he wasn’t 100%. If he is still dealing with a lingering shoulder issue, the Eagles are likely to put a greater emphasis on the run game.
Travis Kelce out here cutting promos. The man is a national treasure. pic.twitter.com/b27qgBANWS
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 30, 2023
Are the Eagles as Good as Their Record Says They are?
By the stats, the Eagles (14-3-0) are without a doubt one of the best teams in the league. But is it as simple as the records would have it? Probably not. On the contrary, the Eagles are only as good as their opponents were bad. Let’s face it, they did have the second-easiest schedule in the league with only five teams that were coming off a playoff run in 2021.
Over the course of the season, the Eagles faced only three quarterbacks that finished inside the Top 10 (Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, and Trevor Lawrence) and they lost the two games that Hurt missed due to a shoulder injury.
Most importantly, their No. 1 passing defense hasn’t seen or been tested by an elite quarterback such as Mahomes all year long. If Mahomes is in top form and experiences no issues with his ankle injury, don’t be surprised if he shreds Philly’s defense to smithereens.
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.