One of the biggest mistakes bettors make when choosing Super Bowl bets is completely overlooking defensive players. The prop odds on defensive players, or any lesser-known guy, are a bit softer than odds for guys like Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders.
With that in mind, I am throwing out the first of several defensive Super Bowl predictions for the big game.
Marcus Epps OVER 5½ Total Tackles + Assists (+130)
Looking over the defensive prop odds for this Super Bowl bet, safety Epps has the longest odds of any teammate to eclipse his total of 5½ tackles + assists.
The odds of +130 for him to hit this relatively low total make Epps the latest addition to our Super Bowl predictions for Sunday.
The line is low for Epps because he has five or fewer tackles plus assists in his previous three games. He had a poor game against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship, with two total tackles and five against the New York Giants in the Divisional Round.
While that is not a great sign, Epps is better than his numbers in those games and has a much higher ceiling than the bookmakers are giving him credit for.
Kenny Gainwell: keeps drives alive w/ability to break tackles.
Reed Blankenship: 11 tackles, one for loss& one forced fumble.
Jordan Davis: back healthy & 1st QB hit against 49ers.
Marcus Epps: has only played < 100% of snaps 3 games. https://t.co/eJUewihjn7
— Philadelphia Eagles Peeps (@EAGLESpeeps) February 2, 2023
Epps went over this total in four of his final five games of the season, and he should get back on track in Super Bowl 57.
The main reason is that Epps’ is very good at torturing opposing tight ends. With his recent opponents lacking quality players at the position, Epps saw his production drop. It’s not for lack of usage as Epps missed playing every defensive snap in a game three times during the regular season.
Epps is so good at his job that no tight end could eclipse 50 yards receiving against the Eagles this season. Zach Ertz of the Cardinals came closest with 48 yards on six receptions. Irv Smith of the Vikings scored the only TE touchdown against the Eagles.
While I do not expect Epps to shut down Travis Kelce, the tight end will keep the Eagles’ safety busy. He shines when challenged, and Kelce will push Epps to his limit.
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.