The game script is one of the first things to consider about touchdown betting. If you handicap a team to blow the other side out, you can expect running backs to get plenty of work for the winning side and receivers for the losing side as they throw more to try to catch up.
In the case of Super Bowl LVIII, I don’t have a specific feel for a side. If forced to choose, I would pick the underdog Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is 9-3 outright in his career and 10-1-1 Against the Spread (ATS) as an underdog!
This is the fourth rematch between head coaches in Super Bowl history. The previous three saw the winning head coach win the second head-to-head in the big game as well.
The stage is set for Super Bowl LVIII. The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the San Francisco 49ers at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Feb. 11. These teams feature superstars and potential future Hall of Famers, but one player many scouts never expected to be in this position comes front and center. The 49ers will be led by Brock Purdy, the third youngest quarterback to start a Super Bowl. This will mark the 49ers’ eighth Super Bowl appearance and their third since 2019.
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) February 8, 2024
The 49ers have been the favorite in Super Bowl LVIII odds for most of the year. They dominated during the regular season, which saw them finish as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The offense led the NFL in yards per play (6.6) and expected points added (EPA). San Fran scored at least 27 points in all 12 wins during the regular season and put 24 and 34 points on the board in their two playoff victories!
Here is a look at our latest 2024 Super Bowl odds.The Super Bowl over-under for this clash is at 47½ points. The most prominent total trend for these two teams is that the Chiefs have seen the second-half total go under in 18 of their 20 games, including all three playoff games, for Kansas City.
Our Super Bowl point spread has the 49ers as 2-point favorites. Under head coach Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 9-3 in the playoffs. The 49ers’ defense was phenomenal during the regular season, holding opponents to the third-fewest points per game at 17.5, trailing only the Ravens and Chiefs.
We are at the final stop aboard the touchdown train! This NFL season has been a fantastic ride, and we cap it off with Super Bowl LVIII. If you’ve been following my touchdown picks since the start of the season or are just joining, thank you! I’m already looking forward to September. Let’s get to this best anytime touchdown picks for Super Bowl 58.
Anytime TD Scorer Bets: 49ers Super Bowl TD Bets
49ers WR Deebo Samuel
The price we’re getting for Deebo Samuel to score anytime is disrespectful. These are the third-longest his odds have been to score and the longest since Week 12. Samuel is the top weapon in this stacked 49ers offense outside Christian McCaffrey. Backing McCaffrey to score a touchdown anytime is one of the easier bets to make, but there’s no value on his current price of around -230.
The Chiefs cornerback duo of L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie have played lights out most of this season. They are a significant reason they only allowed 14 total touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. However, Samuel is the Swiss Army Knife that every team wishes it could deploy. He will line up all over the formation and be used in pre-snap motion to create mismatches.
Since returning from injury, Samuel has played 40% of his snaps in the slot or the backfield. This should help him avoid Sneed and McDuffie more often than Brandon Aiyuk. This is the best way to exploit Steve Spagnuolo’s man-heavy scheme. According to PFF, Samuel has forced 0.62 missed tackles per touch in the playoffs, which is the highest rate of any player. He scored 12 touchdowns in 15 healthy games this season. Samuel had 8 more red zone targets (18) than his teammate Aiyuk (9) this season. He also had 9 carries in the red zone.
Despite battling a shoulder injury, Samuel garnered 9 targets and 3 carries in the NFC Championship. I’m expecting a similar workload, if not greater, Sunday. The Chiefs defense plays two-high on over 75% of plays. They also deploy Cover-4 at a top-10 rate. Samuel leads the Niners in target share and yards per route run against two-high and was the sixth-best receiver in the NFL when facing Cover-4.
Kansas City will play press-man, so I expect Shanahan to get Samuel going in the screen game where he excels. Samuel led the 49ers in designed screens this season with 23, two ahead of McCaffrey with 21. Samuel is a threat to score every time he touches the ball and is a Super Bowl highlight waiting to happen. I believe Shanahan’s creative play-calling will eventually see Samuel find paydirt.
Deebo Samuel: 2.76 yards per route run in the playoffs this season
1st among 49ers and Chiefs players pic.twitter.com/JRVcWavwuF
— PFF SF 49ers (@PFF_49ers) January 31, 2024
49ers TE George Kittle
I expect the Chiefs defense to sell out trying to stop the run. The Chiefs have one of the best secondary groups in the NFL, but their linebackers and safeties are where their weakness hides. Kansas City ranked third in defensive EPA per dropback, but with their defense focused on slowing McCaffrey, there should be voids at the second level. Purdy will look to his tight end, George Kittle, to create explosive play-action shot plays. Kittle was second on the team in red zone targets with 13 this season.
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best coaches in the NFL. The 49ers have their work cut out for them, but I expect Kittle to have multiple splash plays if they succeed on the ground. Kittle was second on the team behind Deebo in target share against two-high.
The Chiefs were strong against tight ends all season, including the playoffs. No matter what you believe, Kittle is the best tight end in this game. For the 49ers to win, they must execute in the red zone. Kittle will be blocking on most downs but will have an opportunity off play-action in the red area to put points on the board for San Fran and impact the Super Bowl final score.
Questions of the Day
How Many Super Bowls Have The 49ers Won?
The 49ers have won five Super Bowl titles (1982, 1985, 1989, 1990 and 1994).
Super Bowl 58 Odds: What Is The Total Points Line?
The Super Bowl total is at 47½. You can bet on the over 47½ points at (-110) or under 47½ total points at (-110).
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.